I typically don’t believe anyone who has a history of lying to me, politician or not.
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Is it a good idea to believe in any politician?
Before this senseless war we had twice the volume of traffic through the strait, with none of the loss of life, damage to cities, damage to bases, none of that. None. And nothing has changed with respect to Iran for the better either.
Are we tired of winning yet?
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Sure. There are lots of them thru history and even now. Some are blatently corrupt of course, and some get seduced that way, but there are others who try to do the right thing for people using the political process.
Sometimes they are prisoners of their time (FDR wanting to get into WWII) and sometimes they have personal failings while doing good for humanity (MLK Jr) but writing off anyone with political skills or ambition is foolhardy. Politics is as old as the species. Better get used to it, or live alone on a desert island.
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The current cost of the action in the Straits of Hormuz for the deployment is above $860mil a day. You can add to that the cost of 1500 patriot interceptor missiles at $4mill each and then add it to the United States Federal Debt which just made it to $40Tril. Before the war, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted that the US would reach the $40 trillion mark in 2028. Leave it to a bankrupt rich kid to get us over the mark two years sooner.
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So who among them is being honest? Not more honest, but honest? Discussing the issues instead of playing to the purple states or missing the point on the far left that the economy matters if you make endless promises? I have not seen one of them rising the occasion. I want to see that.
I don’t understand what you mean. Just because a politician plays to the purple states doesn’t automatically make them dishonest. Just because a politician supports universal child care and a free puppy for everyone doesn’t make them dishonest. They can support their positions and remain candid about what it will take to implement their ideas at the same time. Even if they’re not candid, and mistakenly dismiss how difficult it will be to implement their ideas, that’s not necessarily dishonest if they’re committed to fight for what they believe.
We are seeing a wave of politicians refusing to accept corporate and special interest PAC $$$$$. If I’m being honest, it’s those politicians I’d start with if I wanted to find an honest politician. At the very least, they aren’t bought and paid for.
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The sins of omission matter as much as the sins of commission.
That is convenient because the money is not being offered.
Who to believe?
with three US officials who said that dozens of tankers carrying 16 million barrels of oil safely exited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. Kpler, a global data and analytics platform that tracks physical commodity markets and shipping in real time, recorded zero barrels of oil exiting the Strait on that day.
If oil is NOT going through the Strait of Hormuz; it should eventually be reflected in the price of gasoline available to the US consumer. Though gasoline pricing can be influenced by releasing oil from the US Strategic reserve. Currently gasoline is available at $3.89-$3.99/gallon in my burg. Up roughly a buck a gallon.
With ship transponders turned off it is very difficult for Kpler to track traffic flows. Another way is to count the number of ships that are actually in the Gulf. From another shipping source, ShipFinder, their report from today (August 24):
The total vessel count within the Persian Gulf has oscillated over the past month, registering 3892 units on August 23, following a dip to 3530 on August 20. This indicates an active adjustment in regional fleet deployment…
Daily transits through the Strait remain volatile, with a notable low of 8 vessels on August 16, subsequently rebounding to 32 vessels on August 23…
Further complicating the transparency of the current situation, reporting indicates that approximately 80% of vessels transiting the Strait over the last two weeks have disengaged their Automatic Identification System (AIS), navigating closer to the Omani coast. This “dark” transiting tactic aims to mitigate direct operational risks, but it simultaneously obscures real-time traffic volumes, creating a significant divergence between publicly available tracking data and actual vessel movements…
DB2
Another source, this time the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center:
Nearly 200 ships navigated the strait last week, up from 150 the previous week and just 40 two weeks earlier, according to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center…
“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told CNN this week.
DB2
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That chart leaves out the traffic prior to the conflict. I went to their site and could not find it there either.
But another source has quoted UKMTO:
Overall traffic volumes remained suppressed in the week to Aug 21, as vessels aborted transit plans or switched routes through the strait’s north after attacks, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said in a report.
A total of 89 vessels exited the strait while 103 entered over the seven-day period, the report, based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, showed.
“Traffic remains well below normal levels, with AIS-detected transits approximately 90 per cent below pre-conflict baselines and declining since the Jun 24 to Jun 26 peak,” it added.
Tanker traffic, at 45 per cent of the total, continued to dominate movement through the strait, the agency said. Of these, 56 per cent were tankers that carry crude oil, oil products or chemicals while LPG carriers accounted for a further 24 per cent.
The US playing a marine version of traffic cop is not economically sustainable.
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Not a surprise. As noted upthread:
“Before the war, about 15 million barrels of crude oil a day went through the Strait of Hormuz. In July, tankers using U.S. protected routes transported around five million barrels of oil daily out of the Persian Gulf, according to analysts.”
Also…
“A total of 89 vessels exited the strait while 103 entered over the seven-day period [Aug 14-20] the report, based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, showed.”
And to those numbers you have to add those who have turned off their AIS.
DB2
From last week…
U.S. conducting stealth operation to transport oil through Hormuz
https://www.axios.com/2026/08/19/hormuz-iran-oil-gulf-trump
The U.S. military has quietly established a shipping corridor in and out of the Strait of Hormuz to transport millions of barrels of oil each day… The task force … creates a daily list of ships coming out of the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz and into the Arabian Sea, as well as a list of rented empty tankers that travel from the Arabian Sea, through the strait and into the ports of Gulf countries to pick up more oil.
Each night, the ships are scheduled to move in one big outbound line during a certain time slot and one big inbound line during a separate time slot.
The ships then transit through the southern channel based on U.S. military guidance. The U.S. Air Force has fighter jets that protect against Iranian cruise missiles and drones.
CNN explains the key step…
…four days later, loaded with crude oil…on July 31, shortly after 2 pm just off the coast of Dubai, the Kiku vanished.
The vessel had switched off its AIS transponder, a marine radio device that broadcasts a ship’s identity, speed, course and position. To tracking services that monitor worldwide maritime traffic, it was as if the Kiku simply disappeared. Suddenly, at 10 am on August 1, the Kiku’s signal reappeared – on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz
DB2
And the cost to the US taxpayer per dollar value of goods shipped?
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We have roughly 20 warships assigned to Hormuz currently. We have thousand of additional troops assigned to that region.
- This is massively expensive.
- This comes at the cost of national defense - as those ships would be in other areas of the world otherwise.
- This is also costing the morale of our troops.
- This is/was all unecessary.
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But whatever you do don’t call it a subsidy to oil. Only solar and wind get that insult.
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Eternal truth? Seems that way.
Gulf producers, including Kuwait and Qatar, are increasing tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Reinforcing this week’s developments, new data from Daan Struyven, Goldman’s co-head of Global Commodities Research and head of oil research, show that Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to more than two-thirds of prewar levels.
He said crude flows remain 7 million to 8 million barrels per day below prewar levels, but the recovery has been strong enough to ease fears of a prolonged disruption at the world’s most important maritime chokepoint.
It seems Iran is unable or unwilling to keep the strait closed.
Iran considers returning to the table for talks. Could be the current level of sanctions is hurting Iran and they for further tightening.
Well we’ll see.
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If their radar sites are out of commission (they would certainly be high value targets) and the ships, traveling at night, turn off their transponders, then it would be hard for Iran to spot them.
DB2
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