Saudi Woes-Oil & Houthis

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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and Iran disrupted export routes from the region.

The Houthi forces of Yemen—the widely used name for Ansar Allah–launched a sweeping ground offensive against the Saudi proxies deployed against them, quickly putting the latter to flight, as they abandoned their military equipment in a wild panic. Within a couple of days, the Houthis had successfully seized a long stretch of important coastline as well as the local islands. This allowed them to completely consolidate their control of the Red Sea shipping lanes around the narrow Bab al-Mandab Strait, banning all Saudi cargo traffic.

The de facto leader of Saudi Arabia is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). According to media reports he became so desperate at these successful Houthi advances that on Thursday he personally called President Donald Trump two separate times, pleading for American airstrikes that might turn the tide of battle and rescue the situation. But Trump rejected his requests.

MBS-You been cut loose by the USA.
Join the ranks of Kurds, Sunni Iraqis, South Vietnamese, & Hmong.

Yemen has been in civil war since 2014. A battle between THe Sunni government & Shiite rebels [Houthis].

During the presidency of Barack Obama, the United States began providing Saudi Arabia with critical support to “sustain” the Saudi Arabian–led intervention in the Yemeni Civil War, launched at the request of the Yemeni government,[11][12] later expanded during the presidency of Donald Trump.[13] This support included logistical and intelligence aid. Trump vetoed a bipartisan bill in 2019 aimed at stopping U.S. support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. In 2021, Joe Biden vowed to halt U.S. support for the war, though U.S. arms sales to the coalition have continued.[14][15]

It would seem we have reached a S Vietnam type moment. We’ve cut the Saudis loose.

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The Saudis closed the East-West pipeline after drones launched from Iraq damaged it. Riyadh has not disclosed how badly it is damaged or how long it will be shuttered.

The market could lose 120 million barrels if the pipeline is closed for a month and storage is drawn down at the Red Sea port of Yanbu, according to Kpler.

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This is one of those moments to get honest. It is worth noting the history. The Biden Admin dropped US support for the Saudis during this process with Sanders. This opened the door wide for the Houthis.

Senator Bernie Sanders withdrew a Yemen War Powers Resolution in December 2022 after the White House threatened a veto and agreed to work with his office on the issue. [1, 2, 3]

Background on the Resolution

  • The Goal: The resolution aimed to end unauthorized U.S. military assistance, intelligence sharing, and logistical support for offensive operations by the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.
  • The Conflict: U.S. forces had been assisting the Saudi coalition against the Houthi movement since 2015. [2, 4, 5]

The Clash with the White House

  • Veto Threat: President Joe Biden’s administration strongly opposed the measure, arguing it was unnecessary and would complicate delicate regional diplomacy following a lapsed ceasefire.
  • Withdrawal: Facing opposition from the administration and insufficient backing in the Senate, Sanders pulled the vote.
  • Next Steps: Sanders noted that he withdrew the resolution to engage in direct negotiations with the administration, warning that he would bring the measure back if they failed to reach a strong, effective agreement. Media outlets like The Intercept tracked the sudden shift, while anti-war advocates debated the administration’s resistance to the war powers bill. [1, 2, 3, 6]

AI responses may include mistakes.

[1] https://theintercept.com/2022/12/13/bernie-sanders-yemen-war-white-house/

[2] https://www.voanews.com/a/white-house-defends-support-for-saudis-in-yemen-war-/6880474.html

[3] https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-statement-on-yemen-war-powers-resolution/

[4] https://www.pbssocal.org/shows/democracy-now/clip/biden-like-trump-before-him-derails-effort-to-end-u-s-support-for-saudi-war-in-yemen

[5] https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/07/14/sanders-unveils-resolution-end-us-support-catastrophic-saudi-led-war-yemen

[6] https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-senator-pulls-vote-yemen-war-powers-white-house-opposition

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Yes, President Joe Biden significantly shifted the United States’ position on Saudi Arabia, though his administration’s policy evolved dramatically from a sharp freeze to a strategic pivot.

The policy shift moved through three main phases:

1. The Initial Chilling Effect (2021)

During his 2020 campaign, Biden famously vowed to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” over human rights abuses, specifically the 2018 assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Upon taking office, his administration initiated a deliberate “recalibration”: [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

  • Ending War Support: Biden quickly announced an end to all American support for Saudi-led “offensive operations” in Yemen, including relevant arms sales. [6, 7]
  • Diplomatic Cold Shoulder: The White House bypassed Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)—the kingdom’s de facto ruler—stating that Biden would only communicate directly with his father, King Salman. [3, 4, 8]
  • Intelligence Release: The administration publicly released a declassified intelligence report explicitly accusing MBS of approving the operation to capture or kill Khashoggi. [3]

2. The Realpolitik U-Turn (2022)

Geopolitical realities, primarily sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, forced a sharp shift in 2022. Skyrocketing global energy prices and inflation meant the U.S. needed Saudi Arabia’s cooperation on oil production. [5, 9]

  • In July 2022, Biden traveled to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where he met and fist-bumped Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
  • While critics and human rights organizations accused Biden of abandoning his accountability promises, the administration argued that maintaining a strategic partnership was vital for regional stability, countering Iran, and managing global oil markets. [10, 11, 12, 13]

3. The Grand Bargain and Strategic Alliance (2024–Present)

By late 2023 and into 2024, the administration’s policy transitioned from a reluctant partnership to actively pursuing a historic “mega-deal”. [14, 15]

The U.S. began negotiating a formal, binding mutual defense treaty with Saudi Arabia. Under this proposed framework, the U.S. would offer security guarantees and civil nuclear cooperation to Saudi Arabia in exchange for the kingdom normalizing relations with Israel and curbing its technological and military ties to China and Russia. [14, 15]

[1] https://www.brookings.edu

[2] https://www.npr.org

[3] https://www.cambridge.org

[4] https://thehill.com

[5] https://www.hoover.org

[6] https://khanna.house.gov

[7] https://www.theguardian.com

[8] https://www.diplomaticourier.com

[9] https://apnews.com

[10] https://gulfif.org

[11] https://www.hrw.org

[12] https://mideastdc.org

[13] https://thehill.com

[14] https://arabcenterdc.org

[15] https://www.marubeni.com

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Just sayin’, but I think it fits

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Funny, because usually you think nothing of writing long posts.

Again I offer some honesty and it is not enough for you.

You have been attacking as if your opinion only matters when you attack. Says something about the value of your opinions.

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Yes, and the difference is that I write them, I don’t “cut and paste” them.

For a discussion board, I think the distinction matters.

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Except your opinions are usually about other people’s stuff, and you attack them. That makes your opinions weak, a distinction with little to no merit. Whether someone’s opinions are sourced from AI or not you find yourself needing to go after people. No problem for me. My skin is thick.

Again, the posts are honest about how the Houthis got where they are. You are a minor distraction for some people to chase.

I value honesty more than your nonsense.

If you want a distinction try writing a few opinions that are not about other people and weak attempts to go after them. Your opinions should have some distinction not this nonsense. Frankly Dr.Bob is a far more valuable poster than you. He literally never goes after people. He is a far better writer as well. Unlike you, he is never self assigned.

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Some other people agree with you.

I do not care.

Take what you want and leave the rest.

I am not a writer. I will express myself as I see fit. If you do not like it skip it.

You have a long history of self assigned going after people. AI is just the latest with you. Skip posts you don’t want to read. You are capable of reading something else. Or actually discuss the topic.

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US leaders are terrified of escalating the war with Iran. US allies can safely assume they are soon to be ex-allies. I mean, look at Canada.

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Timing

We are heading into November. Owning a war is not on.

Iran can open the Strait and let it be untaxed by them. Or they can start a war on the high seas, and nibsss does not need to run in 2028. The economic pressure to go to war will climb if Iran does not back OFF for want of the word DOWN. Iran needs to end it or get into a war with us.

The lack of leadership at the Pentagon and elsewhere is scary.

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Iran however is unafraid of escalating the war and is attacking Saudi refining facilities.

American leaders responded by pulling the covers over their heads and quivering beneath the sheets.

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