I have just finished “The Theory that Would Not Die” I highly recommend it. It about Bayes’ rule. This is the rule that allows just about everything that is happening on the internet to happen.
It does a bunch of other stuff too, like set insurance rates, figure out pandemics spreads, predict hurricane track and intensity and so on.
The secret to Bayes rule is this: It never says it is right, it only ever calculated the probability under the curve, and it changes that probability every time it gets new data.
This is Saul’s secret sauce. Make a choice, (assign a probability) with little data, look for more data, make another choice (assign a new probability) rinse and repeat.
For me, I am still not at all sure I have the personality to do this.