Dreamer, thanks for explaining the way you did. that was very well put.
I agree to Bear’s question… just because they are innovative, doesn’t mean they will succeed… are their products as critical and as ground breaking as what Amazon proved to be. Two things to remember, Amazon also tried a whole bunch of things and failed… we just dont remember them because they faded away… e.g. phone (I cant even remember its name). Two, Amazon got “free” funding or “free pass”… whatever you want to say - by Jeff announcing that they dont care for profit, they will only care for top line and domination… and street bought into it and kept share price high (I am willing to be it would be very different if street lost trust on the way and share price tanked for extended period of time).
To me, it seems that NTNX is NOT going about it the Amazon way - which is establishing some strong base and use it in completely different market (e.g. retail to AWS)… so far NTNX is in the phase of going from book store retail store mode… a linear expansion you will… or more simply, building up product portfolio for a given market. If you look at their chart of product portfolio of “Essentials” and “Enterprise”, this becomes clear.
And I think they will have a few duds on the way but even if they come up with one or two more successful products like HCI, they will have huge growth.
(the retail store to AWS move is harder… it may or may not ever come for NTNX… but thats ok, for now, there is a looong runway just with cloud SW portfolio).
One of the most interesting thing I did see in the last investor presentation was that they were able to rapidly grow their AHV (Hypervisor) penetration and leverage that further for more products. That to me is a real proof that portfolio strategy is bearing fruit… thats what I would be watching more closely.
BTW - one company that I see is able to make the retail store to AWS type of move, successfully, is Square. if you map out their succession of products delivery and success, you can see a lot of parallels with Amazon. e.g. cash register to SME accounting software (linear / vertical move) to offer loans… and create “cash app” and then enable bitcoin exchange… these later moves are the AWS type moves. And so far, all of these have successful customer adoption.