I think it was Saul and Bear who did the moderating. Not sure if anyone else had the authority. I too have followed that board. Not sure if I would have anything constructive to add to the analysis that they do there. The current group of contributors are doing a very good job. The analysis is top notch and results are strong too…doc
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For while, there were about 5 assistant board managers.
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Just bought 000C12-16E Nylon that gets delivered end of month. Might end up being a Pickleball paddle if it doesn’t sound like I am envisioning. . .
Been circling the perimeters of a D-28 Deluxe, 000-28 Deluxe, and one other that I can’t remember. Decided to not buy the Santa Cruz Happy Traum signature, skipping the Emerald whatever, might just lay low since I have yet to find anything that matches my Ibanez 3/4 size 12-string. ($425) Just need something to clang around behind my songwriting.
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Since I noticed the market has been down for a few days, and in particular, it seems to be the previously highline rocket ship type stocks, especially in software in tech and recent darlings like nuclear power, it seemed natural to go check the Saul board for a gut check.
No reason to think yet this will be anything like 2022 lows, as the market is simply been on fire for a while and even a minor correction here might seem like a big deal on the short term, but you have to kind of take it on a stock by stock basis to see who’s really been impacted in a material way.
But a theme I have seen on a couple of the post over on that board, is that they need to have a multi year view and any dip is a buying opportunity in a smart Saul way.
I know Saul is not really around anymore and it’ll be interesting to see how much the board morphs over time into new ways of thinking or rewriting the past.
For example, Saul was not blindly long-term by and hold, instead he was “if growth remains strong“ then hold until the story changes.
I had an issue with this for a while, which is more about the principle of why Saul method was working and not so much whether it was or not. And man, if anything ever sounds like an Internet argument that would be a good description of one right there. But anyway, the view I had was that the Saul method is ultimately a momentum trading method.
Quite simply if the growth rates stay strong and or are growing, you continue to ride the likely growing stock price. Saul sometimes had a reaction to a dropping stock price where he would decide that the market was voting and something wasn’t quite right, and if his conviction was not very very strong than he would just simply exit the stock and wash his hands of it. But another cases, he would blindly look at the growth rate of revenue or profit or free cash flow and hold on for dear life, regardless of what the stock price did because he believed the stock price must go up if the growth rate goes up or stays strong.
2022 lows decimated many of those on the Saul stock board because they rode grossly overvalued stocks into the gutter. Hindsight is always crystal clear to everyone, but it’s easy to look back at Zoom and other examples and say wow what were we thinking?
For me macro has not been terribly useful and it’s definitely been a detriment to my portfolio in the 2022 through 2024 time period.
But a correction if not, a recession certainly feels overdue, but it has felt overdue for a long time, and I really thought 2022 was going to get much worse than it ever did.
So I continue to default to the only way I know to combat that lure of following macro, or avoiding FOMO, and that is by investing in stocks I think provide a good value or perhaps are overlooked or perhaps, or a comeback story and have extenuating factors typically fundamental factors as I don’t care about technical trading.
Examples of this in the past was TTD, which was under the radar when I bought in 2017. SPG which was a comeback story coming off the Covid beat down. Even NVDA back in 2015 was an overlooked data center growth story due to the large size of the gaming business. TWLO was a similar overlooked growth story that the Saul board accurately uncovered.
ESPR serves as an overlooked stock in my opinion due to the multiple factors of under the radar growth, levers such as royalties in Europe and in Japan, along with expected patent extension and expected US guideline improvements. Add all that up, and it feels undervalued and a growth play at the same time.
Looking at TTD now, the growth story may have faded or paused a little bit, but the market TAM remains huge and so I think they will continue to have at least modest growth for years to come, and so they would fall in the beaten down category.
The saul method does seem to work, I think it is hard to question that, it is just really challenging for someone whose brain is hardwired like mine to chase momentum. When any moment the musical chairs song will stop playing.
It is odd because that type of strategy takes real balls. It also equally takes real balls to ride something like ESPR from $2 to $.69 to $3, based on belief and fundamentals when no one else in the market seems to believe you.
For some reason, I can’t do the former, but I can do the latter. To each their own!
Dreamer
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I wonder how much of the TTD story is about the APP story.
Although they work in the same sector, their approach, customers and sales channels are different.
APP is getting disrupted (story) > broken thesis on success = bear case selloff
TTD sell off in sympathy? Or is there a legitimate concern for new AI market making and agentic sales channel management?
Two names, two different positions in the swing of the pendulum, linked?
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Perhaps, but exacerbated in TTD case due to cfo exit after only 5-6 months in job, after previous longtime cfo moved on in Nov timeframe.
TTD restated their q4 gudiance around 1/26, ostensibly to guard against concerns of cfo/numbers issues. Seems more likely the cfo ran afoul of HR or has a personal issue.
Thus perhaps more unfairly beaten down.
FUD exists around AI tools leading to less direct use by humans of open internet, thus impacting ttd ad rev.
But with ctv still biggest growth engine, that feels overrated.
Dreamer
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I have been researching them. I do my own valuation and have determined that if you want to earn 15% per year, through the end of 2027, that it is worth between 27.92 and 43.58. It is not only the CFO who left.
From: earnings report. Since March, we’ve welcomed a new COO in Vivek Kundra, a new CFO in Alex Kayyal and most recently, a new CRO in Anders Mortensen. We also changed our inventory and supply side partner management. Of course, our Chief Commercial Officer, Tim Sims, left earlier in the year and the operational portion of his org moved to Vivek and the BD portion moved to one of our amazing leaders, Will Doherty, our SVP of Inventory Development.
Free cash flow is expected to grow at 19% per year through the end of 2027.
Thoughts?
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Successful companies get poached.
Company has probably been around 15 years now? 40 year olds are 55. 25 yr olds are 40. Not everyone these days wants to work 20+ years at same company, and certainly not in same role.
SA has an article by Andres Veurink that analyzes TTD financials and market share from latter part of 2025.
Looks competent to me and worth a look.
Thanks for your insights.
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