Hey Fellow Fools,
I’m pretty sure that there are some folks that post here that also post (or at least follow) the Saul board.
I was a holdout to jump on the Saul board as I lived through the 2002 tech debacle and really wanted to stay away from high risk tech stocks. However, after being on the sidelines for many years, I discussed with my wife to check out some of the stocks that the folks on the Saul board follow and do some research to see if we could jump on the Saul bandwagon with a very small number of shekels. I admit to envisioning a 50% in a short amount of time.
That was in mid-October.
We all know what has happened to the Saul stocks since mid-October. Most have been slammed.
We invested in one of Saul’s picks - UPST - Upstart, an AI lending platform that has had a great track record, had solid expansion plans in place and was executing against them. They claimed (and many agree) that their AI platform takes a lot of the “bias” out of the approval process which allows folks that are underserved in the credit market to get approved. I liked that story. They currently service the personal loan market, but are now expanding into the auto lending market. It is a great story.
Unfortunately, a great story and macro economics don’t always jive and UPST is down 65% since we bought. The Nasdaq has been taking a beating lately. (With more to come - I’m sure).
Again, this was a small position and I’m not losing sleep over it, but it just goes to show that VALUATION (the price that you pay for a given stock) matters.
I tried posting a similar post on Saul’s board twice now, and both posts have been yanked. I want to let folks know on this board that the Saul board is heavily censored and anyone who posts anything about valuation, about losing money, etc. will most likely have their post pulled.
Packard,
Packard, Respectfully, lets go over a few things you said here. Firstly I don’t post too much anymore, as don’t really have too much to say, plus getting on and health not the best, but in this case, it does merit an answer.
First, having followed Saul for many years and seen my portfolio in the last 4 years increase 12 fold(that includes up to last night)plus having gone through(numerous times) what you are obviously feeling at present, drops of 50% and more as in Upst, why when you state, “it is a great story” did you invest in it in the first place if you are not prepared to take the rough with the smooth? Unfortunately for you as so many others, the rough hit the fan a lot sooner than you expected but I don’t believe it gives you the right to basically attack Saul and his board.
Valuation matters you say. Sure, if you are/were intelligent enough to buy say ENPH at under $2.00 only a few years ago now and get out at 280. Now down like everything else to $153.00. How’s the valuation now for you, better or still overpriced? Do you believe in this Company or not? I think you are just p*ssed(albeit you say you will lose no sleep over this) that you got in at a much higher price and didn’t do your own homework when it was so much cheaper and would actually be in profit!
As other posters have said. Saul begs you not to follow him and of course he has to monitor closely or it would get totally out of control(I very rarely have posted on Metar but you have some fantastic posters therein) but over the years have seen how carefully Wendy manages things when it appears to be out of control and great job she has done. Each week Saul posts on Monday the rules of HIS Board and has to do this, as if he allowed you to discuss as you say “valuation and losing money” his board would be hit with literally hundreds of similar posts which would end up having no “valuation” to his own Board. Seems harsh to you and you do appear slightly upset(this too shall pass)but they are his rules and if you don’t like them, well you know the answer, but to warn off others, as to his rules and methods,I believe was off base, which if you had read the knowledgebase, don’t think you would have brought this up.
Lastly, your definition of playing with fire, your gonna get burnt, plus get in early, not late! Well the later statement albeit appears obvious but is it? I brought Shopify in late 2016, that was early. I again brought in 7 times up until June last year. MDB Feb 2018 and 4 times over the years. Both down this year, so what? This year, 4 trading days into it!!! My mistakes, many! Horrible. It hurt in 17/18 when I got too cocky and then around 2019 learnt to just take the loss and move on, don’t look back or move elsewhere into a Net, Cvna, Data, etc(all down big and again so what), I believe in them until the story changes. Oh and I brought more Data twice this year on the way down. Is that playing with Fire, I don’t know the answer, but does that give you the right to condone someone else’s methods that are obviously alien to yours. Again, Respectfully, but I don’t think so.
p.s. Regardless, Wish you well and prosperous.
