Saul's Portfolio at the end of January 2023

Saul’s Portfolio at the end of January 2023

DON’T BE AFRAID TO COMMENT OR DISAGREE ON THE BOARD WITH THINGS I SAY! People do it all the time. (I may disagree with you back though. That’s the way life is.)

As I usually do, for my own convenience, I am ending the month on the last weekend of the month, and Monday and Tuesday will spill over into February (which is short a couple of days anyway :grinning:).



I went into January with great hopes that all the tax selling was over and we’d have a new start, but was I wrong! After the first three trading days (on Jan 5th) my portfolio was down 12.6% (at 87.4% of what I started the year with).

However, I finished the month up 9.7%. That means that my entire portfolio rose 26% in the last three weeks. [109.7 divided by 87.4 equals 1.26 or up 26%]. Let me be clear, I don’t have confidence that we are permanently on the way up and out of this horrible bear market but it’s awfully nice to see the portfolio up on the year instead of down. :grinning:


A BEAR MARKET SUMMARY -
In spite of this month, this has been an awful, even terrible, 15 months for stocks, and especially for our stocks, which have been hit by the interest rate bugabear, as well as by spending cut backs by their customers. The good news is that, on average, our companies are at roughly a third of the stock price that they were at in November of 2021, while their revenue, on average, is probably about 70% higher, with better profitability, more cash flow, and better operating margins.

It’s evident now that our companies were probably overvalued a year ago. But it’s also clear that they were beset by wildly extraordinary circumstances. Indeed, a lot of things have occurred that could not possibly have been anticipated or foreseen, all leading to the the wildly risk-off mentality in the current market, that has sent our stocks to what seem to be ridiculously undervalued levels at present.

The markets, and our stocks walked into a series of once in 50 year storms, all hitting almost simultaneously!!!

These include the worst world-wide pandemic in probably 50 years, and maybe 100 years, back to the 1918 Spanish Flu, and next having the pandemic cause container ships to be bottled up in a couple of closed-down Chinese ports which caused shortages of all kinds of goods world-wide, leading to inflation.

Then we have to add on a crazy, unexpected, Russian invasion of a neighboring country, leading to oil and gas shortages all across western Europe which added to the inflation.

And then having the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at a rate that hasn’t been seen in 40 years.

Complicated by the Fed talking as if a good economy and full employment is a bad thing that needs to be crushed by further interest hikes instead of a good thing, which has brought about a fear of the Fed bringing about a recession.

This all hit us at once . Sure we could have realized that our stocks were overvalued, however, as the Fool says, the best companies are always overvalued. But think about this: we couldn’t have anticipated ANY of these storms (pandemic, invasion, container ships bottled up, sudden inflation, etc.)

And certainly not all these things hitting almost simultaneously, a pandemic, container ships bottled up and unavailable, shortages, a Russian invasion, inflation, and interest rates being pushed up at an almost unprecedented rate, the fear of a recession.

It was a nightmare scenario leading to an extremely risk-off market, bringing us where we are now with our companies seeming as undervalued at present as they were overvalued before.

You just can’t say “I should have expected this!” Some things happen that you can’t anticipate or expect.

I was aided by a useful thought that several of our companies CEOs have expressed. It was something like “Hey guys, this current macro turmoil may affect our current results, but it will pass! Yes, it will pass! And it doesn’t change our long term outlook at all!” That confirmed my thoughts and helped me quit to focussing on the very short term. After all, I don’t know what the next few months will bring.

Look, I can’t tell you what will happen next month, but I think our stocks are for the most part quite undervalued at present and the bots and sellers have way overshot, but that’s just my opinion.

NOW WE JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR RESULTS , most of which will be coming out in the next month. For our companies, revenue growth will be down from a year ago because of macro conditions, but many old line companies will actually have lower revenue than a year ago, which is a big difference.

[What I mean is that, if we do get a recession, our companies may have revenue growing by “only” 50% (way down) while the old line companies may have revenue shrinking by 20%. So we will be looking at 150% of last years revenue for our companies, while they will be looking at 80% of last years revenue.]

I really can’t tell you how the market will react, whether it will be “Oh how awful, just 50% growth”, or “That’s where my money should be, it’s the only thing growing”.]

I have kept a permanent safety fund out of the market that I could live off for several years if necessary, and I feel everyone who does not have a secure regular source of income should do the same.



I have learned long ago that sticking with great companies wins out in the end, and beats market timing, but living through this decline has been awful.

I can’t give you a date when the current turmoil will end, though I hope it is close, but I know thatour companies have secure recurring revenue, and that they are growing very rapidly, at rates almost never before seen for companies at their scale, and considering these facts really makes our companies seem way oversold to me. But that’s just my opinion. I know literally nothing about technical analysis or economics and I have no training as a financial advisor. So don’t just follow what I am doing. Make your own decisions.



MY RESULTS MONTH BY MONTH FOR 2022

Here’s a table of the monthly year-to-date progress of my portfolio for 2023.


End of Jan up 9.7%

Last year at the end of January my portfolio was down almost 30%, so this year was a definite improvement!

Just for reference my portfolio finished last year, 2022, down 68.4%. That is down more than it was down at the end of 2008, when the whole banking sector was collapsing, and it was seeming like the entire economy would follow. It felt like the world was coming to an end.

This year the economy is “too strong”.

News showing full employment or a good economy causes a sell-off because of worry that the Fed will keep raising interest rates.

News showing weak employment or a weakening economy causes a sell-off because of worry that the Fed has pushed us into a recession.

Oh well! As I wrote above, this too will pass!




CUMULATIVE RESULTS

For those wondering about the long term results of investing this way.


2017 – up 84.2%

2018 – up 71.4%

2019 – up 28.4%

2020 – up 233.3%

2021 – up 39.6%

2022 – down 68.4%

2023 – up 9.7%        so far

Cumulative – up 553.8%



Okay, in spite of the worst sell off you could possibly imagine in our stocks, my portfolio still has 654% of what I started with six years and one month ago. That’s SIX AND A HALF TIMES what I started with. In the same time the S&P 500 has risen 81.0%. That’s up 81% compared to up 554%, compared to sextupling and a half! Figure out for yourself which method gets you the best results!




HOW DID THE INDEXES DO?

Here are the results year to date:

The S&P 500 (Large Cap), Closed up 6.0% YTD. (It started the year at 3839.5 and is now at 4071).

The Russell 2000 (Small and Mid Cap), Closed up 8.5% YTD. (It started the year at 1761 and is now at 1911).

The IJS ETF ,The S&P 600 of Small Cap Value stocks), Closed up 10.1% YTD. (It started the year at 91.3 and is now at 100.5)

The Dow (Very Large Cap), Closed up 2.5% YTD. (It started the year at 33147 and is now at 33978).

The Nasdaq (Tech), Closed up 11.0% ytd. (It started the year at 10466 and is now at 11622).

These five indexes averaged up 7.6% ytd.





LAST THREE MONTHS REVIEW



November. I didn’t do much of anything in November except reduce my Monday position to 1.4% from 3.2%, and reduced my Cloudflare position from 19% to 15% (still a large position). I put the money to work adding to Bill, to Datadog, and to Sentinel (at what seemed ridiculously low prices). No closed out positions and no new positions.



December. I took a tiny try-out 1.5% positions in ENPH (solar energy) and in TMDX (medical transplant technology), but then closed out ENPH. I don’t know yet whether I will keep TMDX. I sold most of my Crowdstrike and a little bit of my large Cloudflare positions and, with the money, in addition to the TMDX, I added to Sentinel, Snowflake and Monday, and a little to Bill.



January. Snowflake is still at 25%. Bill inched up to 22%. I’ve reduced Datadog, Cloudflare, and Sentinel by about two to three points each to a current range of about 14.2% to 13.2% of my portfolio (still quite large). I’ve built Monday and Transmedics up about 3 points and 4 points to currently about 6.7% and 5.4%. I’ve sold out of my little Crowdstrike position.




Please remember that I could change my mind about any one or more of my positions tomorrow, depending on new information or other factors, and I may not do another update until the end of next month. Make your own decisions. Don’t just follow mine. I make mistakes at times! Guaranteed!




POSITION SIZES

I have gradually concentrated my number of positions in this macro environment, and currently have two very large positions, three large ones, and two small ones. That’s definitely more concentrated than I like, but my five big positions are companies I have a lot of confidence in.

With five positions making up roughly 88% of the portfolio, it means that they average just under 18% of my portfolio each. Thus it’s inevitable that some will be over my usual 20% limit, and indeed, Snowflake is at 25% and Bill at 22%.

Here they are in order of position size, and bunched by size groups.



Snowflake     25.0%
Bill          22.0%

Datadog       14.2%
Cloudflare    13.6%
Sentinel      13.2%

Monday         6.7%
TransMedics    5.4%



JUST FOR INTEREST, HOW THEY DID SO FAR THIS YEAR

My portfolio: 

NET 	from $45.21 to $53.11	up 17.5%
TMDX	from $61.70 to $69.07	up 11.9%
SNOW 	from $143.5 to $159.4	up 11.1%	
BILL    from $109.0 to $119.9	up 10.0%
MNDY 	from $122.0 to $129.7   up  6.3%	
DDOG 	from $73.5   to $77.2   up 	5.0%	
S		from $14.59 to $15.02 	up  2.9%
	
…and down for the month, 
I guess poaching those execs 
didn’t impress after all):
	 			
CRWD	from $105.3 to $104.5 down  0.8% 				
80 Likes

Saul’s Portfolio at the end of Oct 2022 — Part 2

COMPANY REVIEWS

Please note that when I discuss company results, I almost always use the adjusted values that the companies give.

I sometimes mention what I might do about each position, but DON’T just follow me. Make your own decisions. I may change my mind tomorrow and probably not mention it for a month. And what I invest in may not be right for you. And besides, I don’t understand anything about the tech.




Bill

Bill announced Sept quarter results on Nov 2nd. It is a high confidence position for me, in 2nd place in my portfolio, at 22%. They had what I considered to be great results and I added to my position.

Net customer adds were a record inspite of macro.

Total revenue was up 94%.

Adj gross margin was 85.8%, up from 83.6% a year ago. [Huge gross margin].

Adj operating income was positive $9 million, up from a LOSS of $9 million a year ago. Adj net income was positive$17 million up from a LOSS of $12 million. Op Cash Flow was $18 million.

Free Cash Flow was $12 million.

While other companies seemed worried, Bill said that looking ahead, they expect to deliver strong revenue growth and adj profitability in fiscal year 2023, while continuing to invest in their platform to create more value for SMBs.

Transaction revenue per customer may come down a little due to cutomers doing less business (it was down 3% last quarter), but that hardly matters when they are adding customers at a record or near record level.


Alliances with CPA.com (a subsidiary of the American Institute of CPAs), and with Bank of America, and a bunch of other big banks, and also with 85% of top 100 CPA firms, seem a considerable moat.


Jason had dinner with an ex-VP of Bill who told him, “No one that doesn’t work at Bill understands how deeply integrated Bill becomes in the internal processes of each enterprise customer… No one is ever going to change out of Bill for another option, even if there was a better one*.”***


It seems to me to be a strong company, with a strong future and I am happy with my position.




Cloudflare

Cloudflare also announced Sept quarter results on Nov 2nd.

Here’s my quick summary: This company has been delivering revenue growth in the high 40% to mid 50% range for many quarters sequentially. In addition they innovate and come out with new products and improvements at a pace that neither I, nor anyone else, has ever seen before. However, they disappointed this quarter. Revenue growth was only 47%, which was still in that high 40% to mid 50% range, but was a disappointment after a number of quarters that were sequentially all over 50% (so it looked like this: 48, 48, 54, 50, 51, 53, 51, 54, 54, 54, and then a drop back to 47).


To overcome the disappointment they said : “Now, we’re focused on the path to organically achieve $5 billion in annualized revenue in 5 years, and we’re confident we have the products already in-market to get us there.”


They are moving rapidly into security and competing with Zscaler and PaloAlto in Zero Trust. And now they finally got their FedRamp Moderate approval in December which is a big deal for them as far as getting more Federal Business.They are also moving rapidly into data storage, processing, and distribution.


Venture capital firms are funding startups to build out their businesses on Cloudflare’s Workers program. Cost to Cloudflare, zero. Benefit to Cloudflare, huge. Cloudflare started out trying to find FIVE fims to do this for a total of $250 million. They now have FORTY!!!, for a total of over $2.0 billion. That’s 40 venture capital firms investing $50 million each. That’s 50 million dollars each!

Cloudflare is very enthusiastic, and doing what they do very well, but still assuring us that they’re not trying to be profitable and will stay around break even while they build out the business, which is not what I really want to hear. I’ve reduced my position from over 19% at one point to a still quite large 13.6%, in 4th place.




Crowdstrike

They reported October quarter results at the end of November and I was disappointed about a lot of things from last quarter’s report, and here are just a few of them. Revenue growth dropped from 63% a year ago and 58.5% a quarter ago to 52.8%. And they guided to 44.5% growth next quarter. Sequential gain dropped from 12.4% a year ago and 9.6% a quarter ago, to 8.6%, the lowest it’s ever been. New customers added was a decrease from last quarter, and up only 44% yoy, even though they are supposedly moving downstream into smaller customers where raw numbers should be rising even if revenue per customer is less. ARR missed guidance and came in up only 9.3% sequentially, and dollar-wise it was up less than the quarter before sequentially for the first time ever, and they forecasted another 10% decline this quarter. The good news was rising cash flow and profit margins, but the overall tone was all about macro. I didn’t know what was wrong but I felt something was and greatly reduced my position in December and sold out in January.



Datadog

They also announced Sept quarter results on Nov 2nd. I thought that their results were reasonably good allowing for being usage-based with some expected slowing of growth considering the macro environment. Datadog is truly dominant in its field, but they may struggle for a couple of quarters. Longer term they will do just fine. It’s my 3rd largest position, but now at a reduced 14.2% of my portfolio, it’s way down from 2nd place.


Revenue was up 61%, and up 7.4% qoq. That was really a slowdown, coming from 74% and 12% a quarter ago. However, does a company really have to apologize for “only” growing revenue at 61%???

They are moving into security in a big way and succesfully.

In October, at their DASH conference, they announced 30 or so new products and new features, looking like another Cloudflare for innovation. Datadog is shifting further left, giving developers observability and security earlier in their product development.


A big problem for many people was their conservative guidance but here’s what they actually said (paraphrased):


Q4 has quite a bit more seasonality than other quarters. It had the DASH conference with all its expenses. In addition, December tends to be a little bit weaker as a lot of our customers take time off. It’s also been a little bit harder to forecast in recent years with the pandemic and the vacation behavior that changed after the pandemic. So we are a little bit careful with that, and that’s all incorporated in our guidance.


What they seem to be saying (the way I read it, anyway), is that you shouldn’t pay too much attention to our ridiculously low guidance, but we are giving it to cover ourselves in case of unforeseen disaster. But I may be kidding myself, and they may actually sink down there.



Monday

Monday reported results in November too. I’ve built my position from 3.5% to 6.7% in January, and might have done more except for some company behavior I’m not happy with.


Here’s what is troubling me: This is still a small company that is barely profitable (if at all). Monday obviously has great products that its customers love. That’s not the problem. Last I looked, its stock had done better than any of my other companies since the spring lows. I haven’t a clue why. I have no real problem with their business. After all, growing revenue at 65% with a 89% gross margin! The problem seems to be management not knowing (or not caring) about how to manage the money after it comes in so as to make a profit instead of showing off.


Stockholders seem to come last, after employees, fancy offices, planting trees in Africa, and Super Bowl ads.Perhaps when they contracted for all these extravagances was during a period of euphoria when they were growing well over 100%, and now the financial crisis has hit, and revenue growth is much lower, and they still have all these contracted expenses… I guess I can live with it for now.



Sentinel. Last month I gave a very long discussion of Sentinel, which I won’t repeat. Here’s a link to that discussion, which I feel is very worth reading if you have interest, pro or con, in Sentinel: Saul's portfolio at the end of 2022 - part 3 Since then, Crowdstrike announced that two executives from Sentinel left Sentinel and joined Crowdstrike. There has been a very interesting discussion on that subject, with many opinions, right here: CRWD picks up S execs - #21 by buynholdisdead



Snowflake reported October quarter results at the beginning of December. I’m not going to discuss them further as they’ve been well discussed on the board. (I’d recommend JonWayne’s great post when he started the thread: SNOW December 8 Barclays Investor Conference.) I will say that I have lots of confidence in Snowflake and I feel that its future is very bright. It’s grown to a huge percent of my portfolio, but then again, it’s a very concentrated portfolio. Sure, being usage based, it will be affected by the current macro, but its long term outlook seems outstanding. It’s my #1 position.




FINISHING UP

Let me remind you first, that I have NO IDEA what our stocks will do next month. I’m terrible on predictions. But I know that the businesses of our companies will do just fine for the most part.

I feel that my portfolio is made up of a bunch of great companies. But that’s just my opinion, and I can’t say often enough that I’m not a techie and I don’t really understand what most of them actually do. I just know what great results look like. I figure that if their customers clearly like them and keep buying their products in hugely increasing amounts, they must have something going for them and, as I’ve often said, I follow the money, the results. And I listen to smart people about the prospects of these companies.

When I take a regular position in a stock, it’s always with the idea of holding it indefinitely, or as long as circumstances seem appropriate, and never with a price goal or with the idea of trying to make a few points and selling. I do, of course, eventually exit. Sometimes it’s after months, and sometimes after years, but I’m talking about what my intention is when I buy.

I do sometimes take a tiny position in a company to put it on my radar and get me to learn more about it. I’m not trying to trade it and make money on it, I’m just trying to decide if I want to keep it long term. If I do try out a stock in a small position and later decide that it’s not what I want, I sell it without hesitation, and I really don’t care whether I gain a dollar or lose one. I just sell out to put the money somewhere better. If I decide to keep it, I add to my position and build it into a regular position.

You should never try to just follow what I’m doing without making up your own mind about a stock . First of all, you may have a completely different financial picture than I have. Different age, different income, different assets, different debts, different expenses, different financial and family responsibilities, etc.

Besides, in these monthly summaries I’m giving you a static picture of where I am currently, but I may change my mind about a position during the month. In fact, I not infrequently do, and I make changes in the position. I usually don’t announce these changes until the end of the month, and if I’m busy or have some personal emergency I might not announce them even then. And besides, I sometimes make mistakes, even big ones! Don’t just follow me blindly! I’m an old guy and won’t be around forever. The key is to learn how to do this for yourself.



THE KNOWLEDGEBASE

Since I began in 1989, my entire portfolio has grown enormously. If you are new to the board and want to find out how I did it, and how you can try to do it yourself, I’d suggest you read the Knowledgebase , which is a compilation of my “words of wisdom”, and definitely worth reading (a couple of times) if you haven’t yet. It’s on the panel to your right.

I hope this has been helpful.

Saul

80 Likes

Saul,

Thank you.

I have been pulling weeds in my portfolio for a year or so. I have been waiting for you write up as well as for Bears and Stock Novice and Jon Wayne’s.

Your write up made me look and my (small and now much smaller) aggressive port folio is about 25 percent cash. While life has been busy with, well , life, I have not been energized to buy. This very large position that is guaranteed to under perform has made me energized.

Over the next couple of weeks, out comes the spread sheet, out comes the word document with everyone’s write ups and in the end a some kind of decision process going into earnings season.

The large cash position I have was not intentional and is concerning. The last time I had such a position it was in Upstart and that worked out poorly.

Also, while I find that working outside what yourself and others on this site do, I find that I have strong desire to move into renewable companies. Enphase has been the one I have been interested in. One the other hand, the whole recurring revenue thing does not seem to be happening in any of the renewable/battery storage industry. However, I have seen hints, only hints, that Enphase is attempting to build a market of micro grids. This is exciting (Like Upstart is for lending)

For now it is unlikely I will speculate in Enphase, but I still find it enticing.

Cheers
Qazulight

13 Likes

Enphase has been the one I have been interested in.

Hi Qaz, I recently read that California just took away some of the advantages that it had been giving houses with solar panels. The solar people were very unhappy. You probably should research that before buying Enphase. Since Dec 7th, Enphase has fallen from $336 to $210. There’s a reason.
Best,
Saul

10 Likes

Right but they also just started a partnership with Enerix in Europe. Europe needs to diversify into solar. Not saying the stock is a buy but I am watching.

Andy

7 Likes

I really like ENPH as a company and rode it up over $300 the past few months to about 15% of my portfolio before heavily trimming to add to our severely beaten down SaaS companies. After the recent price decline and trimming, it’s back down to ~3% of my portfolio, but I’m hoping to build it back up a bit if it hovers/drops below current prices.

Overall, the management of ENPH is really solid, their microinverter products are best in class when it comes to residential solar, and they’ve built a really nice moat IMO with their focus on local installer relationships.

I first invested 1.5 years ago because I had solar installed after putting out a broad request on energysage.com. Multiple quotes came in from local installers, but the majority focused on ENPH installation, and the one I eventually worked with did both ENPH and SEDG installations, but basically said I’d be dumb to not go with ENPH.

Their product quality and service is fantastic and it should hopefully help them maintain a lead in the secular renewable trends. Coupled with growth in home storage systems, IRA incentives, and massive Europe / SA growth, i think they’re well set up to continue posting solid numbers over a long period.

All that being said, I’d also encourage looking into TSLA for renewables. I know it’s a controversial stock and off topic for this board so feel free to message me off board if you’d like my thoughts. Their potential growth at scale with optionality upside is unmatched IMO.

Long TSLA 22% / ENPH 3% / “Saul Stocks” 70% / DNA+cash 5%

23 Likes

Regarding Enphase, and solar power in general, I would encourage you to research nuclear Small Modular Reactors.

The first of this type of reactor was just approved in the US in the last couple weeks - https://www.utilitydive.com/news/NuScale-small-modular-reactor-nuclear-NRC/641012/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20Nuclear%20Regulatory%20Commission,the%20U.S.%20Department%20of%20Energy.

China is building it’s first commercial SMR - https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-08-22/China-is-building-world-s-first-commercial-land-based-SMR-1cI8GcIqAuY/index.html#:~:text=China%20is%20building%20the%20"Linglong,the%20region’s%20diverse%20power%20needs.

Similar SMR’s have been used by naval vessels for 60 years and are very safe and reliable - How The U.S. Navy Remains The Masters Of Modular Nuclear Reactors
Quote from the above article for those who might be concerned about safety - “Thousands upon thousands of people, 22,000 people at any one time, have lived, worked, eaten and slept within a stone’s throw of these nuclear reactors for 60 years with no adverse effects from radiation at all.”

There are over 50 SMR designs in various stages of design/development around the world - Small modular reactors (SMR) | IAEA

IMO there is going to be a big expansion of SMR’s in the next 2 decades. If this happens, solar and wind will become less necessary. I think they will still be used and developed but not at the growth rate of the last decade. If this happens, it will also help with the continued expansion of Bitcoin (but please don’t reply and ask questions about it because it’s off topic).

I could be wrong - this is just my opinion based on what I have heard and read so far.

17 Likes

Thanks as always for your detailed monthly write up, Saul. I wanted to pose a question to you and the board regarding Crowdstrike.

I noticed several posters have decided to sell their Crowdstrike position as you did this month but I wanted to provide a counterargument that I have been thinking about lately. I will say, however, that I too was quite disappointed in Crowdstrike’s latest report and trimmed about 10% of my position but held onto the rest. I plan to hold onto these shares at least through their next report.

While Crowdstrike’s decelerating growth has been well documented, one thing that I think has been overlooked is their remarkable ability to produce consistent FCF. For the last 12 quarters, Crowdstrike has posted a FCF margin of 32% on average. This is extremely impressive, especially for a company who has seen their revenue grow from a $600M to $2.5B run rate over those three years. They are best of breed with regards to their ability to produce consistent FCF, although Datadog and Snowflake are not far behind.

As we look into what 2023 has in store, I believe cash flow and profitability will continue to be front of mind for investors. Even with their growth slowing, I expect Crowdstrike to keep their FCF margin in line with the last few years. With this, I believe we can start to value Crowdstrike based on their FCF rather than revenue as growth begins to stabilize.

As it stands today, Crowdstrike is valued at $25B with just over $2B in TTM revenue and nearly $600M in TTM FCF. So, they are trading at about 42x FCF. I would argue this is a bit below what they should trade at given their growth, profitability, consistency, leadership, etc. but that is besides the point.

Looking into 2023, I expect Crowdstrike to grow at roughly 8% sequentially, which would be the slowest they have ever grown but likely where they are headed. This would align with the CFO’s comments on the earnings call of mid to low 30’s growth. Using this assumption, Crowstrike would produce over $3B in revenue this calendar year. If we assume their FCF margin holds steady at ~32%, they would end up with nearly $1B in FCF.

Now, if the multiple holds steady and Crowdstrike trades at 40x FCF, they would end up with a market cap of ~$40B, meaning a return of 60% from today’s price. We are dealing with several assumptions here but I think Crowdstrike is much easier to forecast given how incredibly consistent they have been over the years.

Ultimately, stocks follow earnings and there are few businesses who have done a better job of growing (adjusted) operating income, FCF and EPS as Crowdstrike has. While I admit their slowing growth/ARR is concerning, I view this as something driven primarily by the marco-environment and want to continue owning a piece of this efficient business.

Any thoughts? Does it make sense to value a company like this on their FCF or does this become irrelevant if growth drops from mid-50’s to the low-30’s? Undoubtedly, the biggest risk will be their revenue growth. If this drops below 7-8% sequentially, then all assumptions are thrown out the window.

Rex

47 Likes

Hi Rex,
I think that your evaluation is quite reasonable. I may go back to Crowdstrike in the future, but for now I just felt that I had better places for my money. I can’t hold all the good companies in the market.:grinning:
Saul

9 Likes

For those who are curious about my results at the end of the calendar month, my portfolio was up 7.3% ytd.

The only news about our companies that I saw in the last two days was Sentinel’s partnership with KPMG which I’m about to post.

Saul

23 Likes