Say what you like about the tariffs, they are having the desired impact

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Previous tidbits: Stellantis moving Ram Heavy Duty truck production from Mexico to Michigan. Honda moving future Civic hybrid production from Mexico to Indiana. Nissan increasing production of the Rogue in the US, rather than consolidating production in Japan. Chevy increasing production of the Silverado in the US, at the expense of their Mexican plant.

Latest installment: Honda consolidating production of the CR-V in plants in Indiana and Ohio, at the expense of the plant in Ontario.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a64757929/honda-cr-v-production-moved-canada-america-tariffs/

Rank and file autoworkers in metro Detroit absolutely love TIG.

Steve

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What is “TIG” exactly?

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The Impeached Guy? plus 20

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To Increase Greatness?

The Captain

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It originated as ‘The Incoming Guy’ a few months ago.

DB2

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Dear Mark,

Remember my TI? Just say guy after it.

Dear Steve,

Premature to assume these economic conditions will remain.

30% means fewer workers. Layoffs. It means a spiral. 30% is still high.

They are talking tax cuts still. They mean it. That is disaster. Asia is selling our dollars and paper. China is in a great depression. It spreads from there.

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AI Overview

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Yes, China is experiencing deflation, with overall prices falling for multiple quarters. This is a concerning trend, as it can signal weak economic demand and hinder growth.

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Yes, there are reports of mass layoffs and job cuts in China due to economic downturns, company restructuring, and other factors. These layoffs have affected various sectors, including tech, real estate, and manufacturing.

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No, China is not currently experiencing a great depression as defined by the historical Great Depression of the 1930s. While China is facing significant economic challenges and a slowdown, they do not constitute the severity or characteristics of a global economic collapse like the one during the 1930s.

Here’s a more detailed explanation:

The Great Depression was a global economic downturn that began in 1929, characterized by massive unemployment, deflation, and a collapse in global trade. It impacted virtually every economy linked to international markets.

China, being on the silver standard while the rest of the world was on the gold standard, was particularly vulnerable to the fluctuations in international silver prices. This led to a destabilized economy, with declining prices and a lack of markets for agricultural products, according to Harvard Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and Project MUSE.

While China’s economy has faced slowdowns and challenges, including issues in the property sector, declining consumption, and a slowdown in trade, these are not comparable to the depth and scope of the Great Depression.

A “depression” typically refers to a sustained and severe contraction in economic activity, while a “slowdown” is a period of reduced economic growth, but not necessarily a collapse.

China’s economy has experienced a period of slower growth, but it is not in a state of depression. There are signs of economic weakness, including a decline in consumer confidence and a slowdown in key sectors like property, according to The Gordon Chang Report and RAND.

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“The Incumbent Guy”, formerly “TFG”, The Former Guy.

Steve

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Few complete vehicles imported from China. Lots of fiddly little bits tho. Tariff on cars and parts is generally 25%, unless you are a golfing buddy of the right person, and like your Range Rover. Then the tariff is 10%.

Steve

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Dear Steve,

Sure in some areas. That said the range of Chinese goods beyond automotive is the focus of tariffs. There are some serious problems.

What happens to the toy stores when all the toys come in wholesale at 20% more than last year? Give or take. The prior tariff was 10%, correct.

I’ll answer that, the working capital is at risk. That statement is a dynamic on a lot of levels.

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Steel, aluminum, and cars, seem to be the primary focus of the tariff campaign, as it’s a twofer: generate lots of revenue to cover another round of “JC” tax cuts, and impress the workers in those industries.

Not nearly so many USians making toys or textiles, so that is a more pure play for revenue.

As the guy standing in the door of his gifted 74 said, Proles will simply need to make do with fewer dolls.

Steve

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Dear Steve,

Spelled with the letters, “L-A-Y O-F-F-S”.

shipping, warehouse, accounting clerks, store clerks, buyers, managers,…and more on the wholesale level of spare parts…

Remember we have full employment plus right now. The only direction is in reverse.

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Not meaning to be a naysayer. No doubt the auto industry is an important part of our economy, but it’s not the only, nor most impactful part of the economy. Is it good that auto manufacturing is coming back to the US? Maybe. With increased prices for consumers, time will tell.

Don’t get me wrong - targeted, well-thought-out tariff policy can help us protect national interests and protect important industries. We’re not living in a reality where things are targeted and well-thought-out.

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