Seasonality of search activity for loans

I used this data source (links below) when marketing consumer loans for a large regional financial institution in the past few years. Leveraging seasonality data for marketing purposes lets you know when you should spend up or down, as opposed to using the same ad spend amount every month. That way, you can spend up and maximize sales in peak months and reduce ad spend in low months to avoid high cost-of-sales.

As many of you know, Upstart includes personal loans and debt consolidation (via personal loan) in its core focus: https://www.upstart.com/

Before the pandemic, debt consolidation searches were consistently seasonal. July & August are the peak months for searches. January was another good month each year. Personal loan doesn’t have the same predictably seasonality, but the good news is it’s spiking right now, albeit at a much lower volume than debt consolidation. My take is that tomorrow’s earnings will be really good. Depending on how Upstart’s business is impacted by these trends, there’s a chance the QoQ forecast may not look so hot, and I’d personally look to seasonality as at least part of the reason.

Below are links to the search trends, for reference…

Debt consolidation: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2013-10-01%202…
Personal loan: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2013-10-01%202…
Debt consolidation vs. Personal loan - volume comparison: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2013-10-01%202…

-ElonFeeNix
22% position in Upstart

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