It’s a hyper growth stock board, and people are feeling the pain of the downturn in hyper
growth stocks. But I take a contrarian view, think it’s a good thing that board activity
is down, perhaps getting closer to a bottom in hyper growth.
Also think that there are/were a lot of people that are finding out that they don’t have the same stomach for handling downturns in highly concentrated stock portfolios that Saul has. Easy to be resolved when they’re soaring upward, not so easy when they are getting hammered. I knew I would not/could not emotionally handle a highly concentrated port, even when the stocks were soaring.
There is something to the old adage “sleep well at night” as it pertains to stock ownership.
Does this mean when you write a hatchet piece on someone that Saul’s board is not in your way on the “Best Of”?
This is an opportunity for you to slow down and comprehend the other guy’s point of view before writing one of your hatchet pieces. It might stop your thoughts entire to understand the posts, but there is less competition now for likes so you are under less pressure.
And say, has anybody tried to hire a contractor lately? Whew!
The small pueblos scattered about the Mexican countryside near me have been drained of trainable mentally stable young men – all sucked “al norte” by USA’s economy and idiotic immigration policies. Two guys with young families who have worked for me often over the last two years and were doing well here, both with no desire to move, suddenly disappeared, unable to resist the huge bounties being offered by employers up North.
"My “Saul” type investments are up 124% (vs the S&P at 55%) over the last two years - even with them being down 27% YTD.
An extra 70% return over two years buys a lot of sleeping pills."
same or similar here. But a lot of newcomers to that board did not have the benefit of
that runup.
Not ragging on Saul, utmost respect for him, he’s very open and transparent, as well
as telling people to not just copy him. His resolve for basing his decisions on the financial
numbers that the companies are achieving ( or not achieving ) is something I am really
trying to emulate. But I don’t have the same risk tolerance as he does, and a lot of people
that frequent that board are finding out they don’t have that same level of tolerance, either.
but then go to say how far up they are since “Jan 2020” or “Jan 2021”.
Perfectly logical! If you bought the shares during 2020 this bear market is no big deal. I started buying TSLA late in September 2020 at an average of $428.96. The lowest TSLA hit was $756.04 intraday, up 76%. The real pain is felt by the yield chasers who got in late – late 2021. TSLA fell a lot less than most Saul and ARK Invest stocks many of which fell 80% or more.
They are living in the past and unable to admit the future is not too bright.
Wrong! Investing is a long term game. The near future might be bleak but short of a nuclear war the longer term future is bright. Somebody on uTube calculated how many TSLA shares you need today to have a nice $5,000 a month retirement by 2030. Less than 100! Less than $100K today!
But a lot of newcomers to that board did not have the benefit of that runup.
Agreed!
My #1 complaint there - and why I stopped participating - was the group-think that led so many new visitors astray. Contrary voices were hammered into the dust - or simply had their posts removed. There was way too much irrational enthusiasm for some stocks.
Helping people make money should also be about helping people keep money.
Hawkwin
Who has lost 40% of his investable net worth three times in the just the last four years (Dec 18, March 20, and Feb 22), and it was exceptionally painful each and every time.
Contrary voices were hammered into the dust - or simply had their posts removed.
I don’t think I would characterize Saul’s Board that way, at least not without qualification. I’ve been a lurker there almost from the beginning and I know better to post since also from the beginning it was clear that Saul was presenting, asking for, and encouraging deep-dives on all of the companies brought to the forum. I didn’t have the requisite energy to devote to that so I didn’t kibbutz.
Certainly, contrary voices could be “hammered into the dust” when they did not do much analysis on companies they brought up, or when they become overly repetitive. And the posts that were removed were virtually always in blatant disregard of the board’s rules.
Is there groupthink? A little, I’ll grant you, but the regular posters are a pretty good group of thinkers overall.
Denny is correct: investing is a long-term game. Those who came to Saul’s board in August-November 2021 for the first time and bought everything Saul had are not doing so well. These market movements have happened before, of course, and most of Saul’s picks recovered through them and did quite well. No one knows the future, but the long-term game is mostly where it’s at.
Certainly, contrary voices could be “hammered into the dust” when they did not do much analysis on companies they brought up
To clarify, it was more the “questioning” of some of the excessive predictions that were hammered or just removed. Thus, the groupthink.
For example, when a newcomer was predicting that Zoom was going to have 182 million individual paid subscribers and nearly $33 billion in annual revenue, it was the contrary voices (mine) to that prediction that were hammered. I didn’t need to do a lot of analysis to state such a prediction was terrible and that no one should invest in Zoom based on such a prediction.
Again, I have made a ton of money from some of the recs there but that is probably offset by the amount of money others have lost because few if any were telling them to pull back from the excessive predictions and irrational exuberance.
(I’ve shared the following with this board previously):
Note, the OP, the one that predicted 182 million subscribers and annual revenue of $33 billion for Zoom, received 59 recs. My reply urging caution received just 8.
And of course, Zoom is down roughly 30% from that prediction, has only 500,000 paying customers (4th qtr 2021), and only $4 billion in revenue (2021). Zoom has a negative 2 yr return - losing its entire Covid gains.
Hawkwin
Ironically typing this while an Adobe meeting with 200 participants is running in the background.
For the second day in a row, there is not a single post from Saul’s in the Top 25 of the Fool’s “Best Of” list. Indeed, there are almost no new posts on the entire board.
Has something happened? Have they decamped for another place even though the Fool says it is retaining that board? Or is it that the high-flier stocks have and continue to crater, presaging a mood shift in market investing in general?
I’ve been tracking the most popular stocks in the SAUL port since they chased me off the board in November and the best performing of those (Zoom Info) is down 20% while most are down between 40-80%. I believe that a lot of board followers probably started investing in the “Saul Method” over the summer, in which case they have been gutted. I can’t imagine that they are attracting new investors, except some value investing vultures who have started to sniff corpses like Upstart (and I mean that in the kindest way as Warren himself has been called a vulture investor). It feels like this fall is far from over, and that we will soon be looking at a full market capitulation in the coming months. I suspect the Saul board will be dead this time next year.
My “Saul” type investments are up 124% (vs the S&P at 55%) over the last two years - even with them being down 27% YTD.
An extra 70% return over two years buys a lot of sleeping pills.
Certainly anyone who got in early is still above water, however anyone who entered during the summer frenzy has been deeply damaged and may never recover.
How long are you willing to hold, especially when less risky stable growers like Google are nearing attractive entry points? I’d be looking at capital preservation and not continued ballistic compounding if I was sitting on a double after the recent meltdown.
