SEZL thought experiment

Webby encourages us to look back at old charts, change the date on MarketSurge and click ahead one day at a time to challenge ourselves to be intellectually honest about how we might have thought about trading the stock. SEZL has been mentioned by Andy and it has some good aspects to the chart. What might I have done or though.

Let’s call that first huge gap up Day 1. I almost always want to wait for a big jump to consolidate, I don’t think I would have bought. Day 4 was the first up day after consolidation, Webby seems to call this a setup day, which implies to me that it is not a buy, but you want confirmation tomorrow. Day 5 it did go up and crossed above $400, I surely would have bought that. Livermore liked breaking big round numbers. But I would have finished the day at a loss. Day 7 could not make it past $400, so I would not have added. But it also did not reverse down from that, a decent sign. I would have wanted to add on the day it broke back above (Day 8). I can’t say if I could hold through Day 8 as it broke below $400 again. I probably should not put a ton of stock in a round number, it is not as good as a trend line or prior low. This was so volatile that in a weak market I would really want to sell, but in this market a little FOMO might have kept me in. The last blue bar would probably be a buy breaking above the original high, but it did finish below.

Regardless, I do not own it yet :wink:

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I first bought SEZL on 11/8 at $410, then got stopped out on 11/12, and sold at a 9% loss. I had been interested in the stock because of Qullamaggie’s work on episodic pivots.

I also liked the fundamentals. They grew revenues 71% YoY, and their forward P/E was only 33x.

Got back in on 11/18 at $393 after the bounce on 11/14. So far so good. Am currently up 18% and letting it ride for now.

-Ron

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[quote=“rdutt, post:2, topic:110614”]
I first bought SEZL on 11/8 at $410, then got stopped out on 11/12, and sold at a 9% loss.
[/quote]c

Ron, if you are buying on a day where the stock is up 72%, how do you decide what your stop loss should be? A move that big, implies there can be a large counter move as well. If it were up 15% or 25% would you still set a 9% stop loss? Thanks for the link, I will read it.

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I always set my stop loss at 9% to 10% below my purchase price. However, for trading EPs, Qullamaggie recommends setting the stop at no more than 1x the average true range (ATR) of the daily price.

This is what I did.

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