Shopify Quarterly Revenue
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 321 362 391 505
2020 470 714 767 978
2021 988
Sequential Growth
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 -7% 13% 8% 29%
2020 -7% 52% 7% 27%
2021 1%
Best first quarter ever. Very impressive. And if you break it down, Merchant Services decreased less than usual and Subscription Revenue increased a LOT more than usual.
Unfortunately for the outlook they said:
Subscriptions solutions revenue growth to be driven by more merchants around the world joining the platform in a number lower than the record in 2020, but higher than any year prior to 2020; [Bear: important to note that a “number” higher could still mean a rate lower (than any year prior to 2020)]
The growth rates of subscription solutions and merchant solutions revenues to be more similar to each other than in the recent past, as we do not expect the surge in GMV that drove merchant solutions in 2020 to repeat;
I listened to some of the call and didn’t catch any more detail on when this slower growth (especially in Subscription Revenue) is expected to start. Because it didn’t slow in Q1.
If I had to guess, I’d expect YoY revenue growth to come in at around 50% in Q2, and quickly slow to around 35% or 40% over the next few quarters. (Revenue grew 47% in 2019.) Still pretty amazing for a company of this size, but I believe it’s priced in, so I’ll continue to watch and admire but not own shares.
Bear