Do you have examples of major bottoms without capitulation?
Well, using my model’s definition of capitulation:
It would be the times my models failed to signal a bottom.
But I have tuned them to be less and less discriminating till all bottoms are found, in return for more false signals on the way down.
I’ll have to turn the sensitivity knob to reduce the number of false signals then see which major bottoms get missed.
…[pause]…
These are the first few bottoms to be missed if I increase the discrimination knob a bit:
1978-03-01
1982-08-09
and both dates of the double bottom 2002-10-09/2003-03-12.
Obviously these were points of capitulation—just not in a way that my model detected very well.
For a sense of market conditions on those days:
New lows were only 12.1% of NYSE issues on 1982-08-09, arguably the best moment in history to be a buyer.
Yesterday’s figure was 23.2%
Jim