Simba's backtesting spreadsheet

Simba’s backtesting spreadsheet has been updated to include 2021 returns. See the post from Jan 9 at

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=6438846#p64…

The winning asset class for 2021 was REITS (VGSLX), with a return of 40.40%. The loser in 2021 was Gold (FSAGX), with a return of -10.44%.

The spreadsheet contains a long term history of annual returns of asset classes and representative funds. It lets you construct and compare portfolios over various time periods. It also contains a page of “Lazy Portfolios” such as David Swensen’s. See the tab “Data Series” to see all of the data. You can add a column for BRK stock if you like.

Enjoy.

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How many years after an asset class is the worst, is it likely to be the best?

How many years after an asset class is the worst, is it likely to be the best?

Likely wait N = a + b
a = Wait till it’s cheap
b = Likely to find a catalyst to come back into fashion

The frequency with which a given asset rises to the top part of such a list is unpredictable, but in part a function to its rate of rise of value.
That’s because (a) can be accomplished without a fall in prices.
That’s why, even at any given level of price volatility, equities will top the list more often than gold does.

Jim

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Good, mathematical expression of what BUFF called " the impetus that it takes to move one dollar from my wallet to a capital account." (Not a real quote but my fallible memory of his answer at an annual meeting concerning. the cost of capital.)