Well, got stopped out of $LLY in less than few trading hours. I knew the stop was tight, but it proved correct and saved me a few extra percent of losses. Also supports my theory to sell on first red bar within X days of buying (just based on anecdotal data)
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I think the same thing happened to MNST during it’s run. People coming out and saying that caffeine is bad for you, that should blow over. I saw the Cramer report also and it was concerning but fortunately I haven’t lost much on it due to my stops, but with it being with Pepsi I do think it has much more upside but I don’t need to be in it for the downside.
Amd looks ready to go but I wasn’t impressed with their earnings. Up 9% YoY but everyone is raving about their Data Center growth. CMON if you can’t even break into the double digit growth for all of your Revenue what does it matter if another segment grew big off of a much smaller base. Waiting for MSFT CC. It looks like they are spending massively on equipment still which should be really good for NVDA and SMCI.
Microsoft said on their call that they couldn’t get enough chips for AI. They had to lease space from other vendors. They are still spending a ton of money. I suspect Meta and Amazon will be also. They have to keep up.
To update, I was stopped out of COIN on Tuesday (after Friday buy signal) when the lower price label disappeared. 7% loss, which is more than I would normally want to take, but it was still small dollars and I “felt good” about that one so I wanted to give it some room to bounce. I considered buying back in yesterday when it signalled again, but by then it was below the 20-day and I passed. Today I’m glad I did.
Misery loves company, so in that sense I’m glad others are finding this a difficult market too. I’m now just 1 for 4 in positive trades with SS3 buy signals.
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At my 3:30PM check I only found one of my stocks/ETFs ready to buy: DRV. I suspect we will get a ton of labels tomorrow, and probably some green bars to temps us.
DRV is 3x daily bear for Real Estate
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I got smoked on the DRV trade. I felt it in my gut, buying a 3x real estate short after 3 market down days was asking for trouble as a bounce was likely. Sure enough, it sold off hard and I did not have a stop loss - very stupid. Certainly not batting 100% on this super simple Simon Sez Approach. I will probably switch to the HA charts after my next spectacular failures. Coming to a market near you soon.
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Here is one last shot. Bought CMG, IBIT, COST, ELF.
I bought all between 3:30 and 3:45, figured the market would be stable, but no, it faded into the close and I am down a % on some. I liked BITO (bitcoin) as a non-stock play, but it is really a risk-on, risk-off asset like stocks. It is bumping up against the 50dma, so that may be too much resistance for it.
ELF jumped above the 50dma yesterday and the 21dma today, hoping that provide momentum and support.
CMG moved above the 50dma and 21dma today, so I thought that was a good sign of strength, but it faded below the 21dma before the close.
COST was a “Perfect” buy. I studied the 1-minute chart and put in a limit order near a recent low and it hit. I came back at the of the day to see it had kept fading into the close. Goodie.
Yesterday we had a market upside reversal that finished just beneath the 50% true range and today we seemed to have a confirmation of the strength with an up day…until the last 15 minutes. So now I won’t be surprised if tomorrow is weak. I need to put on stop losses tonight. Hope I don’t have to post again tomorrow.
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MNDY beat on earnings and actually SS was a good indicator. Green bar off the low and the TSI confirmed. Wish I woulda got some…doc
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Very dangerous to buy before earnings, for example…
Had a stop loss, but those don’t work so well on a big gap down, so sold below my stop price.
my other 3: COST, CMG, BITO are holding up well, though BITO was off today.
EDIT: tightened up my trailing stop losses a bit because PPI comes out tomorrow.
Excellent point Pete but could the buy signal give an indicator of the earnings report?
I was just flipping through the list of stocks and saw that pattern developing…doc
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It’s a roll of the dice Doc and would depend on how close you are watching the company and how you feel about the earnings. It’s really funny how this all works and no one can tell you how to do it because everyone would be guessing. Sometimes everything is already figured into the price so if they beat earnings by a good amount it will shoot up but if they come in on exactly what they called for it will shoot down because they were hoping for more. So if you are short term it might be better to just stay out but if you are long term you could ride it. It’s all a personal call.
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I don’t think so. Ever since Reg-FD, earnings don’t really leak out, which is why we get a lot of gaps after earnings. I the good old days, the chart did give away the secrets that were leaking.
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Chalk up another ugly loss for Simon. This was terrible bad luck in a good market. The CEO of CMG went to SBUX and CMG tanked on the news. I had a stop loss on, and once again it gapped down and opened below the stop prices, selling me out at a bigger loss. If I had a stop limit, it would have done better because it ended the day way off the lows, but still a big loss. But if I had a stop limit, I am sure it would have finished at the lows just to team me a lesson. My SS3 account is now 2.5% negative and much worse when compared to SPY over same time (I am sure, but did not do the math yet). I have 2 holdings now: COST and BITO. Costco will announce bankruptcy tomorrow and the US Gov will ban bitcoin, so I will lose it all.
I am beginning to suspect 2 rules are not quite enough to make money with Simon Sez 
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I got the rule#2 label on COST and BITO yesterday but did not do my 3:30 scan, so I missed it. Got lucky because market futures are up and COST is up to a price that will make the Rule2 Label vanish.
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Since the market was up this morning and BITO was not down, I did not sell right away. Later, BITO started heading down so I sold out at a tiny gain. Still 100% successful
COST is my only SS3 holding at this time. Too bad, lots of good ones out there still coming up from that scary bottom where I didn’t want to buy.
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Got a second Rule 2 sell signal today so I sold (missed the one a couple days ago, but got lucky with a gain since).
Now have 0 positions. Will review the SS3-HA method again this weekend and switch to that. Will refill my SS3 account to a nice round number of cash so I can easily track results.
Pete
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