Simple bottom finder

Having spent some time rooting around posts on bottom finders, this one by Zee is simple and direct. From post 220091 (October 2009):

https://discussion.fool.com/dwpbandit-wrote-thanks-zee-hopefully…
…this has a fairly high success rate of marking a short-term bottom. The way I use it is to find the percent of components that are above their 10-Day moving average on the following indexes:
DOW 30
Nasdaq 100
S&P 100
S&P 400
S&P 500
S&P 600
S&P 900
S&P 1500
NYSE
OCO NYSE

When 60% or more of these indexes reach a level where only 10% or less of the components are above the 10-Day it marks an entry point.

Looking at this index indicator site
https://www.indexindicators.com/charts/djia-vs-nyse-stocks-a…
last Friday met the conditions for a short-term bottom.

DB2

28 Likes

DB2 - here are all of the signal dates from 2009 to present using the Nasdaq 100 to evaluate from one month to twelve months forward. The values at the top are the averages of ALL dates.

In my view this can be a great indicator as long as you have an overall view of the market. When a whole slew of bearish indicators are firing a warning it is best to not be too quick to jump in based on these signals. I’ll upload this to my blog for those interested. I’m also planning to post on my blog the Durable Bottom indicator I follow that gives the go-ahead as to when it is reasonable to actually re-enter the market on the bullish side. My indicators have been 100% bearish since 12/27/2021 - meaning invested either SHORT or INVERSE from that date until now. The Durable Bottom indicator must fire before long positions are allowed.

  1/14/2009   4.63%    9.19%   15.07%   26.08%    -3.64%    -5.40%    -6.45%    -7.06%     1.99%      5.73%      11.21%     22.28%
 **NDX-100    Max Pop  Max Pop  Max Pop  Max Pop  Max Drop  Max Drop  Max Drop  Max Drop  Fixed Fwd  Fixed Fwd  Fixed Fwd  Fixed Fwd**
**Signal Date     1        3        6       12         1         3         6        12         1          3          6          12**
1/14/2009    10.61%   17.04%   32.80%   63.10%    -2.30%   -10.57%   -10.57%   -10.57%     2.18%      12.54%     32.71%     62.92%
1/20/2009    13.22%   19.90%   41.22%   66.94%    -0.88%    -8.46%    -8.46%    -8.46%     -0.67%     18.28%     40.90%     57.91%
2/18/2009     5.98%   20.78%   37.46%   59.62%   -12.48%   -12.48%   -12.48%   -12.48%     5.98%      15.03%     35.79%     52.90%
2/19/2009     7.87%   22.94%   40.36%   62.47%   -10.92%   -10.92%   -10.92%   -10.92%     5.69%      16.72%     40.23%     53.59%
2/20/2009     7.56%   22.43%   40.54%   61.80%   -11.28%   -11.28%   -11.28%   -11.28%     5.45%      20.46%     39.40%     54.56%
2/23/2009    13.49%   27.18%   46.62%   68.07%    -7.84%    -7.84%    -7.84%    -7.84%     13.49%     24.17%     45.26%     60.58%
3/2/2009     21.83%   38.74%   54.92%   76.24%    -3.37%    -3.37%    -3.37%    -3.37%     20.21%     37.04%     48.22%     72.73%
3/3/2009     21.84%   38.23%   54.35%   75.58%    -3.73%    -3.73%    -3.73%    -3.73%     21.79%     38.13%     47.53%     74.76%
3/5/2009     22.54%   40.13%   55.23%   77.88%    -3.17%    -3.17%    -3.17%    -3.17%     18.70%     38.53%     52.45%     76.95%
3/6/2009     23.67%   41.78%   56.66%   80.39%    -2.28%    -2.28%    -2.28%    -2.28%     22.17%     41.03%     55.43%     80.08%
3/9/2009     28.54%   44.61%   60.58%   84.30%     1.59%     1.59%     1.59%     1.59%     28.40%     43.24%     59.91%     84.30%
10/2/2009     7.12%   13.88%   19.58%   23.88%    -0.60%    -0.60%    -0.60%    -0.60%     1.09%      12.99%     19.14%     20.69%
10/28/2009    7.86%   12.81%   22.43%   27.70%    -1.76%    -1.76%    -1.76%    -1.76%     6.28%      5.64%      17.06%     26.54%
10/30/2009    8.82%   13.82%   23.53%   29.54%    -0.88%    -0.88%    -0.88%    -0.88%     6.94%      3.95%      13.59%     29.47%
5/6/2010      4.72%    4.72%   15.84%   27.67%    -7.24%   -10.23%   -10.23%   -10.23%     -6.06%     1.13%      15.47%     26.26%
5/7/2010      7.23%    7.23%   18.61%   30.73%    -5.02%    -8.08%    -8.08%    -8.08%     -1.05%     2.69%      18.36%     30.38%
5/20/2010     7.76%    7.76%   22.22%   34.31%    -2.42%    -5.56%    -5.56%    -5.56%     4.13%      0.45%      18.62%     28.70%
5/21/2010     6.42%    6.42%   20.70%   32.65%    -3.63%    -6.73%    -6.73%    -6.73%     1.20%      -2.61%     18.00%     26.38%
5/24/2010     6.86%    6.86%   21.20%   33.19%    -3.23%    -6.35%    -6.35%    -6.35%     1.28%      -1.34%     16.60%     27.31%
5/25/2010     6.83%    6.83%   21.18%   33.16%    -2.49%    -6.37%    -6.37%    -6.37%     1.12%      -2.57%     18.99%     28.10%
5/26/2010     7.98%    7.98%   22.47%   34.59%    -2.44%    -5.37%    -5.37%    -5.37%     -1.80%     -0.27%     19.90%     30.04%
6/7/2010      7.88%    7.88%   23.20%   34.46%    -5.46%    -5.46%    -5.46%    -5.46%     0.92%      4.55%      21.76%     25.29%
6/24/2010     3.01%    9.86%   21.38%   31.08%    -7.84%    -7.84%    -7.84%    -7.84%     1.52%      9.02%      20.89%     22.10%
6/29/2010     7.86%   15.06%   26.92%   37.06%    -3.63%    -3.63%    -3.63%    -3.63%     7.65%      13.26%     26.17%     31.80%
6/30/2010     9.40%   16.70%   28.74%   39.02%    -2.25%    -2.25%    -2.25%    -2.25%     8.78%      14.80%     27.53%     35.78%
7/1/2010     10.18%   17.02%   30.78%   39.40%    -1.24%    -1.24%    -1.24%    -1.24%     10.08%     13.89%     29.97%     36.72%
7/2/2010     10.57%   17.43%   31.24%   39.89%    -0.53%    -0.53%    -0.53%    -0.53%     10.22%     17.14%     30.27%     37.62%
7/6/2010     10.16%   17.00%   30.92%   39.45%     0.13%     0.13%     0.13%     0.13%     9.70%      15.67%     30.88%     39.10%
8/11/2010     5.02%   19.23%   29.05%   32.14%    -5.31%    -5.31%    -5.31%    -5.31%     4.51%      17.76%     28.92%     18.24%
8/12/2010     6.01%   20.08%   30.37%   33.09%    -4.63%    -4.63%    -4.63%    -4.63%     5.86%      16.69%     30.21%     20.85%
8/13/2010     7.18%   20.97%   31.33%   34.07%    -3.93%    -3.93%    -3.93%    -3.93%     7.11%      17.19%     30.96%     20.64%
11/16/2010    6.54%   14.80%   15.49%   16.47%    -0.16%    -0.16%    -0.16%    -2.80%     6.18%      14.27%     12.31%     8.52%
3/16/2011     7.09%    9.75%   10.69%   24.30%     0.68%    -1.00%    -7.63%    -7.63%     4.06%      -0.45%     4.68%      24.07%
6/6/2011      6.35%    7.21%    7.21%   22.90%    -4.11%   -10.53%   -10.53%   -10.53%     5.78%      -2.23%     2.07%      11.47%
6/7/2011      6.61%    7.47%    7.47%   23.20%    -3.88%   -10.31%   -10.31%   -10.31%     4.10%      -2.41%     2.27%      12.79%
6/8/2011      7.37%    8.24%    8.24%   24.08%    -3.19%    -9.68%    -9.68%    -9.68%     4.03%      -3.96%     1.32%      11.73%
6/10/2011     8.91%    9.79%    9.79%   25.85%    -1.81%    -8.38%    -8.38%    -8.38%     4.68%      -0.02%     3.20%      13.79%
6/13/2011     8.85%    9.73%    9.73%   25.79%    -1.86%    -8.43%    -8.43%    -8.43%     6.05%      1.37%      2.07%      14.30%
8/2/2011      1.04%    5.22%   10.44%   21.92%   -11.25%   -11.25%   -11.25%   -11.25%     -5.45%     1.11%      10.31%     16.71%
8/3/2011     -1.23%    4.31%    9.49%   20.87%   -12.01%   -12.01%   -12.01%   -12.01%     -6.28%     2.38%      9.32%      16.49%
8/4/2011      2.76%    9.30%   14.97%   26.65%    -7.81%    -7.81%    -7.81%    -7.81%     0.75%      6.76%      14.72%     23.10%
8/5/2011      3.36%    9.94%   16.02%   27.39%    -7.27%    -7.27%    -7.27%    -7.27%     0.91%      8.05%      16.01%     23.68%
8/8/2011     10.08%   17.10%   24.61%   35.68%    -1.23%    -1.23%    -1.23%    -1.23%     5.02%      16.49%     24.45%     32.00%
8/9/2011      4.96%   11.65%   18.81%   29.37%    -5.81%    -5.81%    -5.81%    -5.81%     1.44%      7.10%      17.89%     26.02%
8/10/2011     9.41%   16.37%   24.10%   34.84%    -1.82%    -1.82%    -1.82%    -1.82%     7.11%      11.53%     23.94%     31.62%
9/9/2011      8.04%   11.50%   25.61%   30.79%    -5.58%    -5.58%    -5.58%    -5.58%     6.63%      5.94%      25.18%     29.03%
9/22/2011     9.40%   10.43%   27.87%   31.76%    -6.49%    -6.49%    -6.49%    -6.49%     6.92%      4.71%      27.35%     28.38%
10/3/2011    15.71%   15.71%   34.07%   38.05%    -2.02%    -2.02%    -2.02%    -2.02%     13.56%     12.66%     32.49%     35.66%
11/21/2011    5.97%   18.35%   26.42%   30.18%    -2.73%    -2.73%    -2.73%    -2.73%     3.46%      17.89%     14.29%     19.46%
11/22/2011    5.72%   18.86%   26.13%   29.87%    -2.96%    -2.96%    -2.96%    -2.96%     3.46%      18.82%     15.46%     20.26%
11/23/2011    8.15%   22.09%   29.02%   32.86%    -0.73%    -0.73%    -0.73%    -0.73%     4.64%      21.07%     17.12%     23.70%
11/25/2011    8.94%   23.02%   29.96%   33.82%     2.55%     2.55%     2.55%     2.55%     6.24%      22.91%     17.39%     24.50%
4/10/2012     2.29%    2.29%    6.80%    6.80%    -3.99%    -9.32%    -9.32%    -9.32%     -2.94%     -5.56%     1.24%      5.32%
4/11/2012     1.80%    1.80%    6.29%    6.29%    -4.45%    -9.76%    -9.76%    -9.76%     -4.35%     -4.55%     0.41%      2.73%
5/17/2012     4.95%   10.98%   14.72%   21.70%    -2.60%    -2.60%    -2.60%    -2.60%     4.55%      10.97%     3.41%      19.23%
5/18/2012     6.24%   13.09%   16.13%   23.20%    -1.40%    -1.40%    -1.40%    -1.40%     3.16%      11.85%     4.92%      20.68%
6/1/2012      8.19%   13.99%   17.06%   24.19%    -0.61%    -0.61%    -0.61%    -0.61%     7.67%      12.74%     7.28%      21.64%
11/14/2012    6.98%    9.93%   19.94%   35.44%    -1.48%    -1.48%    -1.48%    -1.48%     6.85%      8.22%      19.53%     33.85%
6/20/2013     6.95%   12.39%   22.51%   32.76%    -2.25%    -2.25%    -2.25%    -2.25%     5.22%      11.38%     22.17%     31.46%
6/24/2013     8.53%   14.06%   25.50%   34.72%     0.13%     0.13%     0.13%     0.13%     8.01%      12.65%     25.44%     34.36%
8/19/2013     5.82%   11.71%   20.11%   31.90%    -0.54%    -0.54%    -0.54%    -0.54%     5.05%      10.05%     19.31%     31.84%
1/27/2014     6.08%    6.53%   13.92%   23.88%    -2.57%    -2.70%    -2.70%    -2.70%     5.33%      2.08%      13.31%     19.16%
2/3/2014      8.66%    8.66%   16.19%   26.35%    -0.63%    -0.77%    -0.77%    -0.77%     7.64%      3.08%      12.61%     23.71%
4/11/2014     5.19%   14.52%   19.50%   30.09%    -0.95%    -0.95%    -0.95%    -0.95%     3.43%      14.08%     10.55%     28.20%
10/1/2014     4.88%    9.09%   12.53%   17.80%    -7.14%    -7.14%    -7.14%    -7.14%     4.63%      4.42%      9.02%      8.70%
1/6/2015      4.43%    9.08%   10.98%   15.30%    -0.78%    -0.78%    -0.78%    -7.87%     2.56%      7.57%      7.52%      3.89%
6/29/2015     7.18%    7.18%    8.22%    8.22%    -0.82%   -13.53%   -13.53%   -13.53%     4.77%      -4.54%     6.21%      0.86%
8/21/2015     6.04%   12.86%   12.92%   15.26%    -9.77%    -9.77%    -9.77%    -9.77%     1.52%      11.38%     1.04%      13.97%
8/24/2015    10.20%   17.30%   17.36%   19.79%    -0.56%    -0.56%    -3.71%    -3.71%     4.61%      15.62%     4.88%      18.24%
8/25/2015    10.81%   17.95%   18.01%   20.45%     0.90%     0.90%    -3.18%    -3.18%     2.17%      16.35%     4.60%      19.11%
8/26/2015     5.48%   12.26%   12.33%   14.65%    -3.95%    -3.95%    -7.84%    -7.84%     -3.23%     10.92%     2.70%      13.54%
9/28/2015    14.02%   15.51%   15.51%   19.30%    -1.23%    -1.23%    -5.23%    -5.23%     13.82%     13.37%     10.45%     17.91%
11/13/2015    5.28%    5.28%    5.28%    9.10%    -0.53%   -13.62%   -13.62%   -13.62%     2.13%      -7.51%     -4.14%     6.44%
1/7/2016      1.32%    5.55%    6.56%   17.28%    -9.68%    -9.68%    -9.68%    -9.68%     -7.88%     4.42%      6.31%      16.94%
1/8/2016      2.08%    6.77%    7.47%   18.25%    -8.94%    -8.94%    -8.94%    -8.94%     -7.22%     6.65%      6.91%      18.25%
1/11/2016     1.77%    6.68%    7.50%   17.90%    -9.22%    -9.22%    -9.22%    -9.22%     -6.17%     6.33%      7.31%      17.69%
1/13/2016     2.99%    9.26%   10.62%   21.13%    -7.04%    -7.04%    -7.04%    -7.04%     0.38%      9.23%      10.44%     20.60%
1/15/2016     3.88%   10.46%   12.67%   22.63%    -6.09%    -6.09%    -6.09%    -6.09%     0.56%      9.64%      12.46%     21.98%
2/5/2018      9.32%   10.62%   15.63%   18.54%    -5.10%    -5.10%    -5.10%    -9.25%     9.32%      6.12%      14.99%     6.42%
2/6/2018      7.35%    7.80%   12.68%   15.52%    -7.52%    -7.52%    -7.52%   -11.56%     6.98%      4.46%      12.02%     3.65%
2/7/2018      9.18%    9.18%   14.12%   16.99%    -6.34%    -6.34%    -6.34%   -10.44%     7.06%      5.63%      12.55%     6.57%
2/8/2018     13.95%   13.95%   19.11%   22.11%    -2.25%    -2.25%    -2.25%    -6.52%     11.65%     10.44%     17.37%     11.26%
2/9/2018     12.06%   12.06%   17.13%   20.08%     0.18%    -1.40%    -1.40%    -8.07%     9.64%      7.42%      16.13%     9.51%
3/23/2018     5.36%   12.32%   18.18%   18.32%    -2.85%    -2.85%    -2.85%    -9.42%     2.18%      8.61%      16.21%     12.48%
10/11/2018    4.99%    4.99%   10.78%   15.27%    -5.59%   -15.35%   -15.35%   -15.35%     -1.91%     -4.24%     10.29%     13.73%
10/12/2018    2.16%    2.16%    7.79%   12.16%    -8.14%   -17.63%   -17.63%   -17.63%     -5.41%     -6.13%     7.44%      10.97%
12/17/2018    5.70%   16.39%   21.77%   34.03%    -8.58%    -8.58%    -8.58%    -8.58%     3.08%      13.61%     19.86%     34.01%
12/18/2018    5.00%   15.62%   20.96%   33.83%    -9.19%    -9.19%    -9.19%    -9.19%     2.58%      12.72%     18.97%     33.69%
12/19/2018    7.46%   18.33%   23.79%   37.33%    -7.06%    -7.06%    -7.06%    -7.06%     5.67%      15.89%     19.68%     37.10%
12/20/2018    9.18%   20.22%   25.77%   39.53%    -5.58%    -5.58%    -5.58%    -5.58%     8.72%      17.06%     22.17%     39.34%
12/21/2018   12.73%   24.13%   29.86%   45.18%    -2.50%    -2.50%    -2.50%    -2.50%     10.76%     21.07%     26.63%     45.18%
12/24/2018   15.54%   27.22%   33.10%   49.36%     0.38%     0.38%     0.38%     0.38%     12.43%     25.08%     30.03%     48.68%
5/29/2019     8.37%   11.23%   17.03%   34.91%    -3.88%    -3.88%    -3.88%    -6.17%     7.64%      6.73%      17.01%     33.01%
8/5/2019      6.26%   10.97%   27.42%   52.14%    -0.40%    -0.40%    -0.40%    -8.68%     5.89%      10.71%     27.38%     51.94%
10/2/2019     8.97%   17.52%   28.95%   64.74%    -1.16%    -1.16%   -10.32%   -10.32%     8.74%      17.19%     7.03%      52.42%
2/25/2020     2.24%    8.33%   35.60%   57.10%   -23.35%   -23.35%   -23.35%   -23.35%    -14.11%     6.59%      35.51%     46.12%
2/26/2020     1.43%    7.89%   35.77%   56.41%   -23.69%   -23.69%   -23.69%   -23.69%    -11.10%     7.68%      34.40%     49.69%
2/27/2020     6.68%   13.90%   42.81%   64.52%   -19.73%   -19.73%   -19.73%   -19.73%     -7.39%     13.78%     42.19%     54.80%
2/28/2020     6.37%   14.16%   43.79%   64.03%   -19.97%   -19.97%   -19.97%   -19.97%    -11.53%     14.13%     43.12%     49.89%
3/2/2020      1.38%    9.59%   38.55%   56.34%   -23.72%   -23.72%   -23.72%   -23.72%    -13.99%     9.31%      38.46%     40.39%
3/3/2020      4.16%   13.35%   44.74%   61.50%   -21.21%   -21.21%   -21.21%   -21.21%    -12.41%     12.04%     44.52%     47.40%
3/9/2020      5.39%   27.77%   56.51%   74.63%   -14.80%   -14.80%   -14.80%   -14.80%     3.65%      27.00%     43.38%     64.23%
3/11/2020     8.77%   26.84%   55.37%   73.36%   -15.42%   -15.42%   -15.42%   -15.42%     8.57%      20.70%     38.49%     63.41%
3/12/2020    19.89%   39.81%   71.26%   91.09%    -6.77%    -6.77%    -6.77%    -6.77%     18.29%     34.60%     55.26%     81.07%
3/13/2020     9.98%   27.02%   55.59%   73.60%   -15.30%   -15.30%   -15.30%   -15.30%     9.54%      24.44%     43.07%     65.13%
3/16/2020    26.48%   44.65%   77.19%   97.71%    -3.54%    -3.54%    -3.54%    -3.54%     25.81%     42.19%     60.21%     82.17%
3/18/2020    23.75%   41.53%   73.37%   93.44%    -5.62%    -5.62%    -5.62%    -5.62%     17.11%     39.49%     52.43%     82.39%
3/20/2020    26.95%   47.36%   77.85%   98.44%    -3.18%    -3.18%    -3.18%    -3.18%     23.55%     45.97%     59.94%     82.99%
3/23/2020    26.72%   47.10%   77.53%   98.09%     4.25%     4.25%     4.25%     4.25%     25.40%     42.75%     54.61%     82.40%
6/11/2020    15.44%   29.73%   31.94%   47.36%    -1.03%    -1.03%    -1.03%    -1.03%     11.61%     17.62%     29.07%     46.33%
6/12/2020    14.54%   28.72%   30.92%   46.21%    -1.80%    -1.80%    -1.80%    -1.80%     9.96%      18.37%     28.96%     44.70%
10/28/2020   12.27%   21.73%   26.30%   42.79%    -1.67%    -1.67%    -1.67%    -1.67%     11.78%     20.76%     21.56%     42.74%
11/30/2021    2.92%    2.92%    2.92%    2.92%    -3.89%   -14.94%   -14.94%   -14.94%     2.27%                              
12/1/2021     4.59%    4.59%    4.59%    4.59%    -2.32%   -13.56%   -13.56%   -13.56%     2.53%                              
30 Likes

My indicators have been 100% bearish since 12/27/2021 - meaning invested either SHORT or INVERSE from that date until now.

Thank you, Zee. That was timely advice. I closed out my UPRO position shortly before the afternoon selloff. :slight_smile:

DB2

2 Likes

Looking at this index indicator site last Friday met the conditions for a short-term bottom.

UPRO opened on Monday the 24th at 56.98

56.98 x 1.15 = 65.52

A good-until-cancelled sell order would have executed today for a 15% profit.

DB2

2 Likes

While this only detects bull corrections in bear markets, the 9,27
EMA version of Jim’s 13,39 EMA signal triggered today

https://schrts.co/qfweWFBy

Also the $BPNDX signaled a bull market today in the Nasdaq 100. I just noticed that this seems to trigger when
the $NDX crosses it’s 200 day SMA, which also happened today. I didn’t do research to see if this is
common or just the last two times.

https://schrts.co/QmwhRiMQ

https://schrts.co/FBNIZPSt

rrjjgg

5 Likes

I’ll upload this to my blog for those interested. Where is Zee’s blog at?

-giml

Where is Zee’s blog at?

Here’s his home page:
www.zeelotes.org
Send him a PM to request a password.

DB2

1 Like