Good morning. Alert - ASPN is now up over 20% since our purchase just 2 weeks ago. To protect profits, we are moving up the stop to $27. Still continuing to hold 100% of our ASPN position. If you are risk-averse, consider selling a little into this strength and taking partial profits, as William O’Neill would advise.
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Alert - ASPN hit our stop shortly after the open, and was sold at $26.55. Those of you who took partial profits yesterday, as I advised here, are likely to be happier today 
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I am happier that I followed my process.
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Yes, it’s very important that we follow our process and act systematically and methodically. For example, by raising our stop price on ASPN yesterday, we have captured a 7% profit on this trade today in only 2 weeks. The price could go higher or lower in the next weeks and months, but we’ve locked in this gain, and now have almost a 10% cash position to look for our next trade. As usual, we will be looking for a stock in a Stage 2 uptrend, preferably where the price chart has flattened or pulled back within the past week and volume has declined.
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Alert - Sim1 is buying APP (AppLovin Corp) at $131.62 using the cash from the proceeds of the sale of ASPN.
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Good morning. Jobs number comes in super strong at 254K. This is a massive beat compared to the 147K expected. Stock futures are moving higher. AMZN price target raised to $265 at JMP Securities, citing that Amazon could save $20 billion long-term, and $7 billion near-term, on delivery costs by using electric, autonomous vehicles.
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Alert - Both FOUR (Shift 4) and ZETA have now gained 20% since our purchases a month ago. To protect these profits, we are raising our stops on FOUR and ZETA to $82 and $27 respectively. We continue to hold 100% of both these 2 positions.
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Happy Friday, time to take “stock” of where we are. After today’s rally, we’re now up 7.4% since we started this mechanical swing trading journey just 5 weeks ago. As they say in Canada - not bad, eh? Passive investors in the S&P 500 are up 4% in the same period.
Since our last update a week ago, Sim1 has sold ASPN and bought APP with the proceeds as per my alerts above in this thread. We’re also managing risk by using stop losses, and raising them on 2 winners that have already gained 20%: FOUR and ZETA. I was going to take Sim1 out to a restaurant to celebrate, but forgot that, being a robot, he doesn’t eat He’s only hungry for data. Speaking of which, here are our current open positions, results, and position sizes.
| Start date | Sim1 Return | S&P 500 Return |
|---|---|---|
| 9/4/2024 | 7.4% | 4.0% |
Open Positions
| Ticker | Return | Name | Position size | Industry | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 3.6% | Amazon.com Inc | 8.7% | Consumer discr. | |
| FOUR | 19.7% | Shift4 Payments Inc | 11.2% | Technology | |
| MELI | -2.5% | MercadoLibre Inc | 9.1% | Consumer discr. | |
| META | 15.4% | Meta Platforms Inc | 10.5% | Comm, services | |
| NU | -6.8% | Nu Holdings Ltd | 8.7% | Financial services | |
| ONON | 14.6% | On Holding AG | 10.6% | Footwear | |
| TTD | 9.6% | Trade Desk Inc | 9.6% | Advertising | |
| UBER | 3.0% | Uber Technologies Inc | 9.6% | Technology | |
| ZETA | 21.2% | Zeta Global Holdings Corp | 11.3% | Software | |
| APP | 6.1% | Applovin Corp | 9.9% | Technology | |
| Cash | 0.2% | ||||
| Total | 7.4% | 100.0% |
| Recent transactions | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Ticker | Action | Notes | ||
| 10/2/2024 | APP | Bought | Stage 2 uptrend | ||
| 10/1/2024 | ASPN | Sold | Hit stop price | ||
| 9/17/2024 | ASPN | Bought | Rose above 50dma | ||
| 9/17/2024 | MO | Sold | Fell below 50dma | ||
| 9/11/2024 | AMZN | Bought | Rose above 50dma | ||
| 9/6/2024 | ASPN | Sold | Hit stop price |
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After today’s rebound rally, our portfolio is now up 8.7% since we started less than 6 weeks ago. That’s a new high so far. We have two stocks up over 20% now - ZETA and FOUR. You might want to take some partial profits on these two, as William O’Neill recommended in his book. However, we have raised our stops and will continue to hold 100% of both these positions. We’re going to let winners run until they either hit the stops or go below the 50dma line.
The market is only up 4% since we started, so Sim1 should be commended on being up almost 9%. He’s pretty camera-shy, but I finally convinced him to pose for a picture.
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Good morning, I sincerely hope those of you in the Tampa Bay area have evacuated to some place safe by now. We all hope that the damage will be contained, but don’t take chances with your lives.
In other news, analysts have raised their price targets on some of our stocks.
META pt raised to $655 at Keybanc
FOUR initiated with buy rating and $120 pt at Barclays
ZETA announced their plan to buy LiveIntent, and Canacord raised their pt on ZETA to $35
AMZN pt lowered to $210 at Cantor. Yes, that’s lowered
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Good morning. UBER has been reiterated a Buy at Citigroup, with a price target of $98. UBER is up about 8% right now, and up 17% since our purchase. Did any of you watch the Tesla event last night? My sense is that investors were underwhelmed by the Robotaxi, and that’s what’s helping Uber today.
In other news in our stocks, MELI has been started with a buy rating and a $2,800 pt at Redburn.
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Happy Friday night. We are now up 11.6% in the six weeks since we started this robot-driven swing trading journey. The S&P 500 is up 5.2% in the same period. I’ll leave it up to you what you want to do with the winners that are up more than 20% like ZETA and FOUR, with UBER about to join that club. Our guru William O’Neill would recommend taking some profits on those, e.g., sell 1/3 of the positions. We are taking the approach that as long as these winners stay above their 50dma, we’ll continue to hold and raise our stops. Sim1 says “Cheers” and Have a Good Weekend!
| Start date | Sim1 Return | S&P 500 Return |
|---|---|---|
| 9/4/2024 | 11.6% | 5.2% |
| Ticker | Return | Name | Position size | Industry | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 4.9% | Amazon.com Inc | 8.5% | Consumer discr. | |
| FOUR | 26.1% | Shift4 Payments Inc | 11.3% | Technology | |
| MELI | 4.0% | MercadoLibre Inc | 9.4% | Consumer discr. | |
| META | 14.3% | Meta Platforms Inc | 10.0% | Comm, services | |
| NU | -3.4% | Nu Holdings Ltd | 8.7% | Financial services | |
| ONON | 10.8% | On Holding AG | 9.9% | Footwear | |
| TTD | 14.4% | Trade Desk Inc | 10.7% | Advertising | |
| UBER | 19.7% | Uber Technologies Inc | 10.7% | Technology | |
| ZETA | 23.7% | Zeta Global Holdings Corp | 11.1% | Software | |
| APP | 11.7% | Applovin Corp | 10.0% | Technology | |
| Cash | 0.2% | ||||
| Total | 11.6% | 100.0% |
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We gave back some gains this week, and are now up 8.8% since we started on Sep 4. The market is up 6.1% since then.
ZETA got hit with an analyst downgrade today. However, it never hit our higher stop price, nor did it go below the 50dma, so we’ll continue to hold.
FOUR has hit an all time high. It’s higher now than its 2021 peak.
One of our holdings, Amazon (ever heard of them?), will report earnings on Oct 31. Should be interesting.
Have a good weekend!
| Start date | Sim1 Return | S&P 500 Return |
|---|---|---|
| 9/4/2024 | 8.8% | 6.1% |
| Ticker | Return | Name | Position size | Industry | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 5.0% | Amazon.com Inc | 8.7% | Consumer discr. | |
| FOUR | 25.2% | Shift4 Payments Inc | 11.5% | Technology | |
| MELI | 3.5% | MercadoLibre Inc | 9.6% | Consumer discr. | |
| META | 11.7% | Meta Platforms Inc | 10.1% | Comm, services | |
| NU | 1.8% | Nu Holdings Ltd | 9.4% | Financial services | |
| ONON | 7.1% | On Holding AG | 9.8% | Footwear | |
| TTD | 15.2% | Trade Desk Inc | 10.1% | Advertising | |
| UBER | 9.7% | Uber Technologies Inc | 10.1% | Technology | |
| ZETA | 8.9% | Zeta Global Holdings Corp | 10.0% | Software | |
| APP | 10.3% | Applovin Corp | 10.1% | Technology | |
| Cash | 0.2% | ||||
| Total | 8.8% | 100.0% |
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Good morning. (And, yes, it’s an especially good morning if you’re a Yankees fan.) Alert - we are selling all our shares in ZETA at $27.12, thereby realizing a profit of about 6%. The stock has now declined below the 50dma, which is one of our sell criteria.
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Alert - with the proceeds from the sale of ZETA, we are buying Nvidia (NVDA) at $143.36. (Ever heard of them?) The stock is in a Stage 2 uptrend and meets our buy criteria. As usual, we have set a stop loss at 10% below our purchase price.
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Good morning, we’re having a nice start to the day, with our portfolio up over 2% since the opening bell. Nasdaq is also having a big day.
ONON, our athletic footwear company, is up over 7%, probably because another athletic brand - Decker Outdoors (DECK) - reported great earnings yesterday. And Bernstein just raised their pt on META to $675.
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Well, the market faded a bit at the end, but the Naz still closed near a record high. Our mechanical swing trading portfolio is now up 9.8% since we started just seven weeks ago. The S&P 500 is up just 5.1% in the same period. We’ve clearly captured some significant alpha over the past couple of months, but, like Sim1, we’ll remain robotic and not celebrate too much I will celebrate if the Jets win on Sunday. though.
BTW, if you’re curious about turnover - out of the 10 original stocks we purchased on September 4, we’re still holding on to 7 of them. We’ve sold 3 that either hit our stop loss or declined below their 50dma, and replaced them with 3 new stocks in Stage 2 uptrends. Our current positions and recent trades are shown below.
Have a good weekend!
Portfolio performance
| Start date | Sim1 Return | S&P 500 Return |
|---|---|---|
| 9/4/2024 | 9.8% | 5.1% |
Current holdings
| Ticker | Return | Name | Position size | Industry | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 4.4% | Amazon.com Inc | 8.6% | Consumer discr. | |
| FOUR | 22.8% | Shift4 Payments Inc | 11.2% | Technology | |
| MELI | 1.9% | MercadoLibre Inc | 9.3% | Consumer discr. | |
| META | 11.0% | Meta Platforms Inc | 9.9% | Comm, services | |
| NU | 5.3% | Nu Holdings Ltd | 9.6% | Financial services | |
| ONON | 12.3% | On Holding AG | 10.2% | Footwear | |
| TTD | 15.9% | Trade Desk Inc | 9.8% | Advertising | |
| UBER | 7.6% | Uber Technologies Inc | 9.8% | Technology | |
| APP | 22.8% | Applovin Corp | 11.2% | Technology | |
| NVDA | -1.3% | NVIDIA Corp | 9.7% | Semiconductors | |
| Cash | 0.0% | ||||
| Total | 9.8% | 100.0% |
Recent transactions
| Date | Ticker | Action | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/22/2024 | NVDA | Bought | Stage 2 uptrend | |
| 10/21/2024 | ZETA | Sold | Fell below 50dma | |
| 10/2/2024 | APP | Bought | Stage 2 uptrend | |
| 10/1/2024 | ASPN | Sold | Hit stop price | |
| 9/17/2024 | ASPN | Bought | Rose above 50dma | |
| 9/17/2024 | MO | Sold | Fell below 50dma | |
| 9/11/2024 | AMZN | Bought | Rose above 50dma | |
| 9/6/2024 | ASPN | Sold | Hit stop price |
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On the “Current Holdings” list, could you add the buy date
Thanks
Sure, the buy dates are shown in the table below. Our buys have been announced here on the same day we actually bought (scroll up in this thread), and they’ve also been posted in the Recent transactions list.
It looks like we’re currently holding 3 Megacaps (AMZN, NVDA and META), 6 large caps (UBER, MELI, ONON, APP, TTD, NU) and 1 mid-cap (FOUR).
| Ticker | Return | Name | Position size | Buy date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 4.4% | Amazon.com Inc | 8.6% | 9/11/2024 | |
| FOUR | 22.8% | Shift4 Payments Inc | 11.2% | 9/4/2024 | |
| MELI | 1.9% | MercadoLibre Inc | 9.3% | 9/4/2024 | |
| META | 11.0% | Meta Platforms Inc | 9.9% | 9/4/2024 | |
| NU | 5.3% | Nu Holdings Ltd | 9.6% | 9/4/2024 | |
| ONON | 12.3% | On Holding AG | 10.2% | 9/4/2024 | |
| TTD | 15.9% | Trade Desk Inc | 9.8% | 9/4/2024 | |
| UBER | 7.6% | Uber Technologies Inc | 9.8% | 9/4/2024 | |
| APP | 22.8% | Applovin Corp | 11.2% | 10/2/2024 | |
| NVDA | -1.3% | NVIDIA Corp | 9.7% | 10/22/24 | |
| Cash | 0.0% | ||||
| Total | 9.8% | 100.0% |
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Wow, I thought for sure the Jets were gonna win, but then the Patriots came from behind and scored a game-winning touchdown with just 22 seconds left in the game! Congrats to Patriots fans. Good game.
Next week will be a big earnings week, with 3 of our companies - META, UBER and AMZN - all set to report earnings. Should be interesting.
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