Good morning. Alert - ASPN is now up over 20% since our purchase just 2 weeks ago. To protect profits, we are moving up the stop to $27. Still continuing to hold 100% of our ASPN position. If you are risk-averse, consider selling a little into this strength and taking partial profits, as William O’Neill would advise.
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Alert - ASPN hit our stop shortly after the open, and was sold at $26.55. Those of you who took partial profits yesterday, as I advised here, are likely to be happier today 
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I am happier that I followed my process.
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Yes, it’s very important that we follow our process and act systematically and methodically. For example, by raising our stop price on ASPN yesterday, we have captured a 7% profit on this trade today in only 2 weeks. The price could go higher or lower in the next weeks and months, but we’ve locked in this gain, and now have almost a 10% cash position to look for our next trade. As usual, we will be looking for a stock in a Stage 2 uptrend, preferably where the price chart has flattened or pulled back within the past week and volume has declined.
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Alert - Sim1 is buying APP (AppLovin Corp) at $131.62 using the cash from the proceeds of the sale of ASPN.
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Good morning. Jobs number comes in super strong at 254K. This is a massive beat compared to the 147K expected. Stock futures are moving higher. AMZN price target raised to $265 at JMP Securities, citing that Amazon could save $20 billion long-term, and $7 billion near-term, on delivery costs by using electric, autonomous vehicles.
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Alert - Both FOUR (Shift 4) and ZETA have now gained 20% since our purchases a month ago. To protect these profits, we are raising our stops on FOUR and ZETA to $82 and $27 respectively. We continue to hold 100% of both these 2 positions.
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Happy Friday, time to take “stock” of where we are. After today’s rally, we’re now up 7.4% since we started this mechanical swing trading journey just 5 weeks ago. As they say in Canada - not bad, eh? Passive investors in the S&P 500 are up 4% in the same period.
Since our last update a week ago, Sim1 has sold ASPN and bought APP with the proceeds as per my alerts above in this thread. We’re also managing risk by using stop losses, and raising them on 2 winners that have already gained 20%: FOUR and ZETA. I was going to take Sim1 out to a restaurant to celebrate, but forgot that, being a robot, he doesn’t eat He’s only hungry for data. Speaking of which, here are our current open positions, results, and position sizes.
| Start date | Sim1 Return | S&P 500 Return |
|---|---|---|
| 9/4/2024 | 7.4% | 4.0% |
Open Positions
| Ticker | Return | Name | Position size | Industry | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 3.6% | Amazon.com Inc | 8.7% | Consumer discr. | |
| FOUR | 19.7% | Shift4 Payments Inc | 11.2% | Technology | |
| MELI | -2.5% | MercadoLibre Inc | 9.1% | Consumer discr. | |
| META | 15.4% | Meta Platforms Inc | 10.5% | Comm, services | |
| NU | -6.8% | Nu Holdings Ltd | 8.7% | Financial services | |
| ONON | 14.6% | On Holding AG | 10.6% | Footwear | |
| TTD | 9.6% | Trade Desk Inc | 9.6% | Advertising | |
| UBER | 3.0% | Uber Technologies Inc | 9.6% | Technology | |
| ZETA | 21.2% | Zeta Global Holdings Corp | 11.3% | Software | |
| APP | 6.1% | Applovin Corp | 9.9% | Technology | |
| Cash | 0.2% | ||||
| Total | 7.4% | 100.0% |
| Recent transactions | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Ticker | Action | Notes | ||
| 10/2/2024 | APP | Bought | Stage 2 uptrend | ||
| 10/1/2024 | ASPN | Sold | Hit stop price | ||
| 9/17/2024 | ASPN | Bought | Rose above 50dma | ||
| 9/17/2024 | MO | Sold | Fell below 50dma | ||
| 9/11/2024 | AMZN | Bought | Rose above 50dma | ||
| 9/6/2024 | ASPN | Sold | Hit stop price |
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After today’s rebound rally, our portfolio is now up 8.7% since we started less than 6 weeks ago. That’s a new high so far. We have two stocks up over 20% now - ZETA and FOUR. You might want to take some partial profits on these two, as William O’Neill recommended in his book. However, we have raised our stops and will continue to hold 100% of both these positions. We’re going to let winners run until they either hit the stops or go below the 50dma line.
The market is only up 4% since we started, so Sim1 should be commended on being up almost 9%. He’s pretty camera-shy, but I finally convinced him to pose for a picture.
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Good morning, I sincerely hope those of you in the Tampa Bay area have evacuated to some place safe by now. We all hope that the damage will be contained, but don’t take chances with your lives.
In other news, analysts have raised their price targets on some of our stocks.
META pt raised to $655 at Keybanc
FOUR initiated with buy rating and $120 pt at Barclays
ZETA announced their plan to buy LiveIntent, and Canacord raised their pt on ZETA to $35
AMZN pt lowered to $210 at Cantor. Yes, that’s lowered
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