Yowzer - down 31%. I bet Saul is going to be along in a minute saying he sold his holding earlier on in the day near the all time high and dodged this bullet like he always manages too.
Ant
27 Likes
I bet Saul is going to be along in a minute saying he sold his holding earlier on in the day near the all time high and dodged this bullet like he always manages to.
Sorry to disappoint you Ant. It didn’t happen. But I also don’t see SKX staying down at these levels. JMO
Saul
5 Likes
I guess what I mean is that revenues up 27% doesn’t deserve a 30% reduction in price, for any company. And legal expenses, for things that are clearly time limited, will soon be gone, leaving incredibly large comparisons for this quarter and next in 2016.
9 Likes
As we all know on this board, it is vital that we do our own analysis and research and form our own conclusions. We need to be fishermen and fisherwomen, not dilettantes shopping in the seafood aisle at our local Whole Foods fish mart.
With this principle firmly in mind, after carrying out an exhaustive analysis of all relevant factors and modeling future cash flows in various ways, I decided to add some SKX shares at $30.99 AMC today.
Lesser people might just have relied on all the good work done on this board by Saul and other very smart people in making this investment decision, but that would be too easy – it would free up time for hiking with the dogs and drinking Hot Chocolate under the Indian summer moon and just generally get in the way of quality time spent with the old desktop crunching numbers and reading poorly transcribed conference calls.
No, the siren call of the beautiful outdoors could not tempt me! I just put on the old green eye-shade, closed all the windows, and started crunching numbers on the trusty Compaq. (Or at least that is my story and I am sticking to it.)
I do not want to bore you all with my detailed analysis, but if you would like me to email you my spreadsheets and simulation code, please send an email to me at dgardner@fool.com saying:
Booyah, Jimbo!! Any hot trading tips for a big fan?
This message – a secret code we are using solely for this purpose – is designed to get immediate attention and provoke a quick reaction.
Rich (aka “Jimbo”)
CED
36 Likes
So is this another ‘it was hunky dore up until today then it turned on a dime- we thought it would be rosy but it is dark dark dark’. We are definitely blind and spinning like a top. I really ought to go back to long term buy and hold and not bother looking at these things every day.
First BOFI then SKX. What’s the next steep move? SWKS? Hopefully up. AMBA looks tempting but who knows what its stock will do when they report in a few weeks maybe with lighter GPRO revenues?
For those who have >10% in one or more of these stocks, how do you react to those one day> 30% drops? Do you panic and sell? Do you wait for the rebound to sell? Do you reduce? Do you buy more? Now? Or a bit later? Do you hold on for the ride?
tj
1 Like
For those who have >10% in one or more of these stocks, how do you react to those one day> 30% drops? Do you panic and sell? Do you wait for the rebound to sell? Do you reduce? Do you buy more? Now? Or a bit later? Do you hold on for the ride?
I go back to bed and wait for the pub to open and then I go and order a large gin and tonic.
Ant
6 Likes
Rich:
We can do all sort of analysis. I get your do your homework type of call. But the question here is though they are all kinds of analysis you could do, the crust of the question is what will happen to the business in future, and that question is hard and do not lend to any simple analysis. This is not physics.
All sort of financial houses claim to have some type of proprietary model that is supposed to give a better prediction but there is a lot of hogwash. With all the sophistication, they will not be able to know when best to buy or to sell. I see those reports of buy and sell with their 50 pages analysis but on the end accuracy is lacking.
After the considerations, you need to ask yourself: will I be lucky this time?
tj
1 Like
I do not want to bore you all with my detailed analysis, but if you would like me to email you my spreadsheets and simulation code, please send an email to me at dgardner@fool.com saying:
I received a message back that the mail box was full. You wouldn’t happen to have a phone number you could put out so we can all conference on and talk this over?
Andy
7 Likes
May be a good buying opportunity. I am thinking of adding but I want to hear the CC first. Sounds like an overreaction at first blush.
Htownrich
A “momentum” stock like this is likely to see a lot of people want to leave if they think growth has slowed. When the selling comes in tomorrow, there could be lots of volume and easily 10% more down on a quick dip. Be ready if you have conviction. Options will have a lot of volatility built in, a call-write might turn quick profits, or at the very least make your buy cheaper if it is not called away.
$32 is already below the 200dma. I would not be surprised to see an additional 10% drop with a finish above the 200dma. Jan 2014 saw it tread around the 200dma for a few weeks, but it has not gone below it since.
Time will tell.
1 Like
You wouldn’t happen to have a phone number you could put out so we can all conference on and talk this over?
Hi Andy,
I wish I could provide my phone number, but with all the women who read these boards – well, that would be like waving a lamb chop in front of a wolf. And who needs that particular headache?
Now if I were 40 years younger . . . .
Best,
Rich
CED
,
22 Likes
Thanks, PuddinHead42.
I guess what I mean is that revenues up 27% doesn’t deserve a 30% reduction in price, for any company. And legal expenses, for things that are clearly time limited, will soon be gone, leaving incredibly large comparisons for this quarter and next in 2016.
It is not the absolute value, but the trend. If “everyone” thinks the ride is over, they get off and find another ride. We see irrationality all the time, but we can’t tell if the buyers or sellers are irrational until later. Is BOFI a good buy now? Is SKX? Is AMBA? We hope our 1YPEG evaluation method works, it has for Saul, but if it does work, it works on average and it will fail sometimes. If you get out of your failures with small losses and ride winners for big gains you win. Which is this going forward?
I promise you that 1 year from now I can tell you exactly what you should have done.
16 Likes
After 3 knock downs, was I supposed to get up again? What, for more blows. I’m off to do an Ostrich in the kids’ sand pit. Please buzz me when this is over.
We can all look smart in an up market; here comes our maturity test – of course, to make our stomach stronger, weeding time, patience.
Go play with your kids or grand’s.
This too shall pass.
I wish I could provide my phone number, but with all the women who read these boards – well, that would be like waving a lamb chop in front of a wolf.
Yes. So true.
okapimoon,
a woman
3 Likes
Yup, Puddinhead… as the saying goes “the trend is your friend till it ends”
I think SKX is a better buy here than BOFI though.
AMBA has been wrecked, but with 45% short interest, the downtrend is gonna have to end at some point and it will in one crazy short squeeze when it does.
SWKS for one has actually done a pretty good job of accepting prices without a major crash given the state of semis
But in anything that has had a run like these stocks, there are always pullbacks along the way people with varying time horizons get on and off the train. Just sucks to see it happen to some biggies in a short period of time.
Sidenote, CELG & GILD have held up decently in the recent biotech carnage, and I’ve started looking at them again.
well, that would be like waving a lamb chop in front of a wolf. And who needs that particular headache?
Lol, I think you just found your new user name Lamb Chop.
Andy
6 Likes
Lol, I think you just found your new user name Lamb Chop.
Ha ha, Andy, you know better than that! It would confuse people if I changed my user name!
Rich
14 Likes
Saul,
I guess what I mean is that revenues up 27% doesn’t deserve a 30% reduction in price, for any company
That’s not always the case. If the market is modeling (pricing) a stock with the expectation of a 50% growth in revenue, and the revenue comes in up 27%, a 30% reduction in price may be perfectly reasonable. Prices always have some level of expectations built in.
Whether that is the case here, I have no idea; I don’t know the first thing about this company. But generalizations like the one you made can be dangerous, especially when they’re wrong.
Rob
8 Likes
From the conference call Notes: Reasons for the 15c EPS
Of note: The Company’s diluted EPS for the third quarter of 2015 was negatively impacted by several factors including: foreign currency translation and exchange losses; increased legal expenses due to legal settlement and pending litigation; and increased deferred rent expenses related to our new Fifth Avenue location, which opened during the third quarter, and our second Skechers retail store in Times Square, which opened in the fourth quarter. In total, these three items reduced diluted EPS by 15 cents during the third quarter of 2015.
… As I mentioned earlier, our EPS for the third quarter of 2015 was negatively impacted by several factors including foreign currency translation and exchange losses of $13.5 million, and increased deferred rent expenses of $3.5 million related to our new Fifth Avenue Skechers retail store, which opened during the third quarter, and our second Skechers location in Times Square, which just opened. Additionally, earnings per share for the quarter were impacted by a one-time charge of $5 million in the third quarter to settle personal injury lawsuits arising out of our toning business; and higher legal fees and associated costs of approximately $5.9 million primarily related to intellectual property litigation, including the matter of Converse, Inc. v. Skechers USA, Inc. which went to trial before the International Trade Commission in August of this year.
We believe that most, if not all, of these legal matters will come to a conclusion by early next year. In total, these three items reduced diluted EPS by 15 cents during the third quarter of 2015.
And still okay with Analysts’ current estimates
While we are comfortable with the analysts’ current consensus for fourth quarter revenue and earnings, we also see significant potential in the first quarter of 2016 as well as the entire year by investing in our product, marketing and infrastructure.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3596676-skechers-skx-q3-2015…
1 Like