I suppose this delays the global impact of the scarcity of oil. Meanwhile sanctions are still strangling Iran’s economy. And the world waits to see which side yells uncle.
With insurers hiking premiums and tensions rising, a handful of oil tankers are reportedly secretly crossing Hormuz in “dark mode” under US military coordination.
the US-guided crossings appear to follow routes that are closer to Oman.
The Wall Street Journal report said that a small number of ships, including massive oil and liquefied natural gas tankers, have managed to pass through the dangerous route in recent weeks, creating what it described as a “tiny relief valve for the global economy."
One of the vessels that reportedly crossed the strait in this manner earlier this week was a Greek supertanker carrying around two million barrels of crude oil.
According to the report, the ship had been stranded in the Persian Gulf since early March.
Nearly 40 ships previously stranded in the Persian Gulf have exited through the Strait of Hormuz over the past three weeks as vessels quietly coordinate with the U.S. Navy, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still remains way below prewar levels.
There is a chart at the above link. Before the strait closure 75 to 100 ships made passage weekly. Now the number is 5 to 15 ships weekly.
If the Strait was open tomorrow, it would take months to get the pumps and refineries to operate again and get back up to speed. The entire ordeal has only begun, and may not be over for two years. That is just talking about oil and the other resources.
…private sector estimates that rely mostly on ship transponders.
Military analysts measured the number of ship passages since a ceasefire took effect between the US and Iran on April 8 using continual air, sea and space surveillance deployed as part of the war against Iran, the official said, asking not to be identified to discuss data that hasn’t been made public. The bulk of the vessels are large cargo and container ships and the figure doesn’t count smaller craft, such as traditional dhows, they added…
A Bloomberg tally of ship-tracking data using transponders counts just over 650 transits since April 8 — 402 outbound and about 260 inbound. The US count likely reflects — at least in part — the rising number of so-called dark transits ships are making with transponders turned off to help avoid detection by Iran…
How much oil? Because wells and refineries have had to close down. If it is out of storage, the same problem exists, it takes time to get the wells and refineries up and running again.
To answer that, this is a 60 day supply at 20 million barrels used per day. If some of it has not been used or blown up. The Arabs themselves may need to dip into it.
Total fixed oil storage capacity in the Persian Gulf is estimated to exceed 1.2 billion barrels across major OPEC producers
Surveys conducted prior to the fall of the Western-backed Afghan government indicated that approximately (27\text{ %}) of Pashtuns to (50\text{ %}) of rural Pashtuns expressed sympathy or support for the Taliban, depending heavily on the region and security conditions. [1, 2, 3]
Surveys by independent institutions like the [image]GAMAAN Institute indicate that roughly 10% to 15% of the Iranian population supports the Islamic Republic and its institutions, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This leaves a large majority of the country—estimated between 80% and 90%—opposing the current regime. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Doesn’t seem likely that the US military would be helping Iranian vessels.
“Some vessels are reportedly switching off lights and navigation systems while coordinating with the US military in an effort to avoid Iranian attacks and safely cross the strait.”
The count is generic. Iran’s naval ships may be a part of the generic count. We know much of it is bulk shipping, but that qualified statement leaves open other ships traversing the strait. Including US naval ships. Neither of which is excluded by the generic numbers.
