According to an analysis from the Social Security Administration’s Office of the Actuary (OACT)…
the big, beautiful bill is projected to increase costs for the combined OASI and Disability Insurance trust fund [by $168.6 billion from 2025 through 2034.
…reduced payroll tax income collected by Social Security from 2025 through 2028 is going to widen an already large unfunded obligation…
Trump’s tax and spending law will shift the OASI’s asset reserve depletion date forward to the fourth quarter of 2032.
In six years, Social Security Benefits will be reduced 23% across the board. A social security monthly benefit of $3,000 will be reduced to $2,300. Further, COLAs will be eliminated. As inflation continues the number of retirees living in poverty is expected to increase by 60%.
Under current law, social security benefits will be cut by 23% in 2033. This is about 1% of GDP. This projection hasn’t changed much in 30 years. Congress might avoid the cut and just increase the deficit, but at some point Federal borrowing will exceed the market’s capacity, with higher interest rates as a result. (OASDI costs are projected to continue rising over the next 50 years.) Instead of fixing the shortfall, the current Congress has decided to make it worse.
[$B] OASI pct of GDP
1,327 costs 4.5%
1,224 income 4.2%
103 deficit 0.4%
305 23% cut 1.0%
29,184 GDP 100.0%
Federal
1,830 deficit 6.3%
35,500 debt 121.6%
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A SUMMARY OF THE 2025 ANNUAL REPORTS
Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees
A MESSAGE TO THE PUBLIC:
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, unchanged from last year’s report. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of total scheduled benefits.
At the end of 2024, 60.1 million people received OASI benefits, 8.3 million received DI benefits, and 67.6 million people were enrolled in Medicare.
In 2024, the OASI Trust Fund’s cost of $1,327.2 billion exceeded income by $103.2 billion.
https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html
1994 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds
“the OASDI program is not in close actuarial balance over the next 75 years, based on these assumptions. The estimates indicate that the combined trust funds would be sufficient to enable the timely payment of benefits for about the next 35 years.”
Despite Decades of Warnings, Depletion of Social Security’s Trust Fund Is Getting Closer
“In 1995, the trustees projected that the OASI Trust Fund would become depleted 36 years later, in 2031. Three decades later, the projected date of depletion remains similar.”
Budget Basics: Federal Trust Funds
Combined Social Security benefits could be cut by 19 percent in 2034 without legislative action
Chart shows benefit reduction in 2035 from 5.7% to 4.7% of GDP.