SoftBank originally got into a stake in NVDA in May of 2017 at around $130 per share. They have just announced their intention to get out of that stake early next year. This is worrying to me. Masayoshi Son is investing heavily in IoT, ML/AI and robotics. And if NVDA does not appear to fit in that picture it makes me wonder what he sees that I don’t. This is a man who thinks long-term. He is not a short-term investor. My take from this is he does not see a compelling long term story here any more.
I’ve been on the fence about my NVDA stake for awhile now. What was once a top performer for me has been dead last for too long, at too high a loss.
I know only a few of us on this board seem to be NVDA fans, but I’m about to change that view and just exit entirely at a loss. I’m afraid I’ve become a victim of falling in love with a stock and not paying attention to what is happening to it.
I sold all shares about 30 minutes ago. Will likely cut half my AAPL shares as well today. Now going over my shopping list. Probably no new names, will just add to existing holdings.
bjurasz This is a man who thinks long-term. He is not a short-term investor. My take from this is he does not see a compelling long term story here anymore.
I would take the thought that Masayoshi as being a ‘long term thinker’ with a medium drop of soy sauce.
His prescience might not be as clear cut as some want to think. I was moderately close to the event when he bought controlling interest in Kingston Technology (privately held third party computer memory), ~~~1996… I disremember the purchase price… but less than 30 (24???) months later he was done and done, when world wide memory capacity exploded, increasing sales, but reducing gross margins.
No funny business, no accounting ‘adjustments’, no gotcha’s… just a very major paradigm shift in the market… He sold the company back to its founders, for ~$0.30 on the dollar.
Sorry to hear you’re underwater on NVDA… we’re still good here after getting in at $95 twenty-four months ago… I’m hanging on… one bad quarterly report, as bad as it was, does not make me want to bail.
Today, the accelerator market is dominated by Nvidia’s data center products, which we estimate will generate $3.2 billion of revenue in 2018. Nvidia estimates that its data center business has a total addressable market of $50 billion—a figure larger than Intel’s data center business, which seems difficult to reconcile. That said, as the latest data from IDC and Top 500 shows, the server market is undergoing a fundamental shift. The decay of Moore’s Law has increased total server spend as compute intensive workloads migrate from CPUs to specialized processors. If CPUs and accelerators were to swap places in the data center, as they did in HPC, the accelerator market would approach Nvidia’s estimate, implying a 10x increase over the next five to ten years.
And if NVDA does not appear to fit in that picture it makes me wonder what he sees that I don’t.
Hi bjurasz,
Softbank’s sale of NVDA share is not related to whether or not NVDA fits into their long term plans:
The dramatic fall in its share price has caused SoftBank to lean toward offloading its stake, the people said…SoftBank may decide against exercising its option to sell its stake if Nvidia’s share price rallies, the people said.
The fact that they could decide to keep their shares/options if the stock price goes up means that this was purely a financial decision by Softbank and has nothing to do with their long term prospects.