#2
…continued
Now, let’s look at how some of our companies are doing, rather than how their stock is doing:
UBNT
Their last six quarterly revenues have been (in millions of dollars) : 61 – 75 – 83 – 101 – 130 – 138. For the Mar quarter they estimated between 138 and 144, which would be up 70% from 83. They have not pre-announced any problems. They probably expect to exceed the estimates they gave. There has been no bad news.
Their last six quarterly earnings have been (in cents per share) : 15 – 20 – 24 – 33 – 46 – 48. For the Mar quarter they estimated between 47 and 51, which, at the midpoint, would be up 104% from 24. They have not pre-announced any problems. They probably expect to exceed the estimates they gave.
If they hit, but don’t exceed, just the midpoint of their range, their trailing PE will be 24 at a stock price of $42, and 21.6 at a stock price of $38.
CELG
Their previous six quarterly earnings reports had been
$1.29 up 27 cents,
$1.32 up 27 cents,
$1.37 up 29 cents,
$1.52 up 30 cents
$1.56 up 27 cents
$1.51 up 19 cents.
The March quarter results were:
$1.67 up 30 cents.
Mar revenue was $1.73 billion, up $0.27 billion from $1.46 billion.
At the current price of $146.70 they have a trailing PE of 23.4.
They have a 2 for 1 split coming in June.
In March the FDA approved their drug Apremilast for Psoriatic Arthritis (which could be a big seller for them.
In April they acquired a late stage drug for Crohn’s Disease.
All along they have been making partnerships with small drug companies to subsidize their research now, and take over marketing of the drugs coming from that research.
For 2014 they forecast product sales up 16%. For comparison, for 2013 they forecast product sales up 11% and hit 18%!
In January they gave the following long term guidances:
2015 Guidance Raised
Product Sales of $8.5 billion to $9.5 billion
Adj Earnings of $9.00 to $9.50
2017 Guidance Raised
Product Sales of $13.0 billion to $14.0 billion
Adj Earnings approximately $15.00
Both UBNT have been hard hit in this selling wave. They sure look good to me.
More to come…