Some thoughts on AMPL's "weak" Q4

AMPL just delivered a great quarter but the share tanked after hours probably due to “weak” 56% Q4 guidance vs 66.7% Q3 guidance they provided on Sep 21.

Here is my thought:
On "weak” Q4 guidance, this is what CFO commented in the Q&A which I think make a lot of sense:

“I think obviously we’re, as kind of a new public company, we want to be pretty prudent about how we’re thinking about the next quarter guide. I would say that the one difference is that when we gave last quarter guidance, we gave that towards the end of September right before we went direct, our direct listing. And so, we obviously have a lot more of visibility into that and into what we’re doing over the next few weeks, whereas obviously now we’re a little bit earlier. And so, I think that we think about that additional time frame, you wanted to be a little bit more prudently conservative about where you’re looking when you’re guiding for the year.”

AMPL reported Q2 earnings and provided Q3 guidance on Sep 21, right before public and by then they already have full visibility on the quarter ending Sep 30 therefore we saw only 3.4% beat.

However from Q4 onwards, I think they shall be able to deliver a much higher beat. With a 10% beat, they can grow ~72% again in Q4, which has no deceleration at all.

CFO also expected to grow 40%+ in 2022 at this early stage (before Q4 report), which is HIGHER than what CFLT just expected a few days ago.

I will hold all my shares, currently 10%.

Zoro

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