Something to Consider

Better to be Judge? Jury? Prosecutor?

From a public article by Bert Hochfeld published on Seeking Alpha comes this quote:

"Try not to overthink stories

Perhaps the most important concept to consider at this point is not to overthink stories. Many readers will be tempted to imagine a story has changed because the value of its shares has imploded, something that challenges this writer on occasion. Many subscribers write to me to question if stories are intact, after such shocking declines. I get it.

Other readers see discussion boards that evaluate the investment merits of individual companies. Often these boards provide valuable insights, but sometimes they can focus on a single metric to the exclusion of attempting to provide a holistic picture that includes positives and negatives in assessing the outlook for a company. For the most part, the operational outlook for even the most devalued companies hasn’t changed for the negative. Indeed, I would argue that the current outlook, regardless of the share price, has tended to improve for most IT companies which saw peak share prices in early November."

This is a great article by Bert and more than worth the read if you haven’t gotten to it:…

In particular, he discusses UPST - it’s rise and fall, and what to take away from that. He discusses the much debated Delinquency Rates at length and comes away on the plus side of the ledger for UPST.

All of which plays a great deal to my wonder at how UPST can be the investing world’s darling one moment - able to leap tall buildings at a single bound - to dirty rotten scoundrel the next - SELL…SELL…Flee!!!

And I think it has a lot to do with many individual posters looking for flaws in the plumbing and then brining any flaws they discern to the attention of everyone. Now…all in all - who could argue that that is a bad thing? It’s not - it’s a good thing. But sometimes it’s what happens from there that creates some sort of - what Bert lays out as ‘Overthinking the Story’ - that creates a negative avalanche or sorts.

I try to stay far out of those type discussions either as a the Prosecutor or the Defense. Sometimes I actually manage to avoid them - and sometimes like everyone else, I get drawn in. But…from a perspective that’s developed over the years, I think it’s far better to let substantially smarter folks be the Prosecutors and prosecute and the Defenders defend and to just let my own analysis be the Judge. Works ok I suppose.

All the Best,


As Peter Lynch once said, a lot of people think long-term investing is three weeks from next
Wednesday. With a fixation on monthly results, the impulse is to focus on trees.

Glad to see you back and kickin.