Meanwhile, Polymarket expects a 20% pop on the $135/share initial offering price.
I trust Polymarket’s arithmetic. But a $100 bet that the peckerwoods at Morningstar are right will give you a $1,000 pay-off.
intercst
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To be fair, that’s not quite accurate. Or at least not for the Polymarket bet you linked. The peckerwoods at Morningstar are only claiming that SpaceX isn’t worth the IPO price - they’re not claiming that SpaceX won’t trade at that price. In fact, rather the opposite:
“With a small initial float boosted by almost every investment bank on the planet, buoyant investor appetite for AI infrastructure bids, and an unprecedented path to inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index just 15 trading days after the IPO, we expect SpaceX’s share price will likely survive separation and may even ascend, at least for a time,” Morningstar said.
The bet on offer at Polymarket you linked to is that SpaceX will close their IPO (ie. first day of trading) at under $1 trillion. Even the Morningstar pencilnecks think they’ll clear that bar - and they’re bearish on the stock!
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Reminds of listening to Classy Freddie Blassie on the Dr. Demento Show back on the day. Volume down low so my parents wouldn’t hear.
“They say these geeks come a dime a dozen. I’m looking for the guy supplin’ the dimes.”
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What do the peckerwoods at Morningstar think about the impact of mega IPOs on the broader markets? Given that margin debt is at all time highs, investors can’t use margin debt to purchase IPOs for at least thirty days, and the result of investors potentially selling leveraged equities to purchase IPOs…things could get interesting.
https://global.morningstar.com/en-eu/markets/mega-ipos-that-could-make-waves-through-us-stock-market
MSCI has some interesting takes on potential outcomes -
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Fidelity cut the minimum SpaceX IPO purchase from $500,000 to just a $2,000 lot.
Does that mean they’re giving the little guy a break, or that the demand from the whales has softened?
You don’t have to make it to Mars, capturing just one asteroid would add $1 Trillion to the market cap.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-spacex-stock-ipo-fidelity-brokers-30399d08
intercst
Likely neither.
It probably means that Fidelity sees this as an outstanding opportunity to gain new customers via a method that doesn’t cost them a thousand dollars in promotional money per new customer.
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It means the smart money isn’t buying in, so they are trying to fleece the little guy.
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Nobody is “capturing an asteroid”. Have you seen what happens when something enters (or re-enters) earth orbit? It gets astonishingly hot. It often explodes unless it has been carefully engineered to deflect the heat.
If it’s big enough the pieces rain down with the energy of ten thousand blazing suns, and you can’t control where they go. Even if you could, they disintegrate into meaningless shards over miles of land (which is why there’s no big lump at the center of craters here, the moon, Mars, or elsewhere.)
And what is the idea anyway? Does someone think there’s going to be a meteor of solid gold? When gold exists up there, it’s kind to be the same as elsewhere, mixed in veins with other useless stuff, requiring extraction and purification out of the rocks that make up space matter. Same is true of any other element or mineral.
How does this theory propose you “steer” the asteroid, which is already traveling at 100,000 miles per hour, plus or minus? What kind of force do we bring to bear on something large enough to be worthwhile, traveling at fifty times faster than a rifle bullet? Using what energy? With what precision device to change the momentum?
This is as daft as saying “we’re going to put a million people on Mars by next Tuesday.” (I know the “next Tuesday” part is my own personal exaggeration, but it doesn’t matter, it’s not going to happen by next year, or by the next century, and likely not ever.)
And the IPO is oversubscribed. Man oh man. There’s one born every minute.
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Something interesting from the peckerwoods at FT.
"Views differ as to whether Elon Musk’s lossmaking value telecom firm is really worth as much as $1.75tn. Or indeed whether 92x last year’s revenues makes it cheap at the price.
Fund managers who just don’t have the mental and emotional energy to track all of Elon’s tweets could just bypass this Friday’s mega-IPO and stick to their knitting — be that quality growth, deep value, or whatever. And this is the course that many successful so-called hedge funds that don’t actually hedge will take.
But any portfolio manager reporting performance relative to a market index has no such luxury. They are, in effect, relative value managers — going long a bunch of stocks they like and short any whose portfolio-weight is less than the index weight. And if those underweight positions do well they’ll need to explain to their clients how they screwed up.
And so, just not buying SpaceX is, for this cohort, functionally identical to going short SpaceX. What if SpaceX memes? That would be annoying, and also costly."
https://www.ft.com/content/d4069188-30ca-4838-a3d3-f3c8ffe4a13b
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You crash the asteroid on the Moon (where there is no atmosphere) and then mine them from there.
Experts said that “Nobody is going to make a reusable rocket that you can safely land upright” until someone did it.
intercst
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Is that a technical term or someone’s last name? 
JimA
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You’re an engineer, right?
Explain to me how to steer an asteroid to “hit the moon” (please do a calculation of changing the arc of a significant enough piece of metal traveling at 100,000 mph, and then once you realize that can’t feasibly be done, explain how you’re going to set up a mining/refining operation on the moon, economically speaking.)
Thanks.
“Experts” also said we could land a million people on Mars by 2050, and I’m willing to bet against that, too.
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I had heard about putting the asteroid into Earth orbit, and mining it there. You still have that same problem above however. Also, crashing into the moon scatters all your valuable minerals into dust over a very large area, hardly great for mining. Lastly, you need to get all that stuff back to Earth, requiring a descent through the atmosphere, which is a very energy intensive and very, very high temperature trip.
This is the stuff of Sci Fi.
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Not into dust. Into gas. The energies involved end up vaporizing the asteroid. There’s no atmosphere to slow anything down. The speed of asteroid impacts into the lunar surface is vastly higher than earth impacts. The impacting body is vaporized instantly, the lunar surface melts, and the material from the asteroid is gradually deposited from the coalesced mix of regolith and the condensing gases.
Plus - why would you want to do this in the first place? Almost everything you could get from an asteroid being steered into the Moon is already present on the Moon. The Moon’s been peppered with asteroid collisions for millions and millions of years. All those craters are filled with the same materials from past asteroid collisions as you would get from current ones (with notable exceptions below). So if you’re going to set up a mining operation on the Moon to harvest asteroid debris, there’s no need to make new asteroid debris. Just go after the stuff that’s there.
The exceptions, of course, are volatile substances. Hydrogen, carbon, nitrogen - and even water - are present in higher concentrations in asteroids than on the Moon. That’s because they were lost to space in the high-energy environment of the Moon’s early formation. And that vaporization process at the top means that they don’t get deposited when asteroids hit the moon in the later millennia. But if you deliberately crash your asteroid into the Moon, all those valuable volatiles don’t stick around after the impact. They’re a resource if you’re mining asteroids in situ that disappears once you crash them into the Moon.
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Pshaw, you’re all wrong. We’d use a tractor beam of course!
I find all of the debate about Musk’s crazy ideas ridiculous. Y’all know he’s hopped up on Ketamine most of the time, right?
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How much Ketamine can you buy with $1 trillion?
Well d’uh!
LMAO
The bridge warehouse is emptying out fast. Get yours while they last.