States with the best tax regimes for the wealthy

[aj485]

@intercst

When I bought my current home in 2012, it was 70%-off its 2008 sales price. Perhaps this cycle we deliver the same kind of bargains?

I doubt it. Part of the cause of that crash was overbuilding leading into it. While we have recovered from the trough that we were in, we’re still only about at the long term average New Privately-Owned Housing Units Completed: Total Units (COMPUTSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Considering that the US population grew from about 195MM to 340MM during that timeframe, we are still below the housing completions needed to drive oversupply. Unless we get to an oversupply scenario, prices are unlikely to drop significantly overall, although some markets may experience drops. A more likely scenario is that prices will remain fairly flat overall, with exceptions (both up and down) occurring in local markets.

AJ

[intercst]

@MarkR

@intercst

Perhaps this cycle we deliver the same kind of bargains?

It all depends on your belief. If you believe that offices will never again be populated with 80+% of the employees (that typically work at a desk), then no, maybe not yet. But if you believe that offices will again soon be populated with 80+% of the employees (that typically work at a desk), then yes. In other words if you think WFH will remain a “thing” then no, otherwise yes.

I was thinking more of the single family residential space.

Wall Street Investors are liquidating Houses at Big Discounts (youtube.com)

intercst

[aj485]

@intercst

I was thinking more of the single family residential space.

Wall Street Investors are liquidating Houses at Big Discounts (youtube.com)

That youtuber has been predicting real estate crashes ever since he started his channel in 2020 Avoid Buying Real Estate in these Cities (youtube.com) although at that time, he was recommending buying in some of the very cities he’s claiming are crashing today, like Austin, Phoenix, Jacksonville and Orlando. I guess that even a stopped clock is right twice a day. He refuses to acknowledge that the ‘huge increases in inventory’ that he’s showing in places like Austin Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in Austin-Round Rock, TX (CBSA) (ACTLISCOU12420) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org) and Phoenix Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ (CBSA) (ACTLISCOU38060) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org) are just returns to what were considered ‘healthy’ levels pre-pandemic, not an oversupply.

AJ

[intercst]

@aj485

He refuses to acknowledge that the ‘huge increases in inventory’ that he’s showing in places like Austin Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in Austin-Round Rock, TX (CBSA) (ACTLISCOU12420) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org) and Phoenix Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ (CBSA) (ACTLISCOU38060) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org) are just returns to what were considered ‘healthy’ levels pre-pandemic, not an oversupply.

The interesting part is the purchase price of the homes making up the increased inventory. Are they recent Wall Street owned homes now selling at a loss?

intercst

[MarkR]

@aj485

Considering that the US population grew from about 195MM to 340MM during that timeframe

I don’t understand this statement. Or I don’t understand which timeframe we are discussing. I thought we were discussing 2008 to now, or maybe 2010 to now. The US population was over 300M in 2008.

[aj485]

@MarkR

Or I don’t understand which timeframe we are discussing.

The timeframe for the long-term average of new construction on the graph is from 1968 to 2023.

AJ

[aj485]

@intercst

Are they recent Wall Street owned homes now selling at a loss?

Maybe, if Wall Street bought in 2021 or 2022. For instance, here’s the median sales price in Austin for 5 years from Redfin Austin Housing Market: House Prices & Trends | Redfin

And here’s the same graph for Phoenix:

So, in most cases, it looks like Wall Street would be, at worst, breaking even, unless they bought at the very tippy top. I seem to remember that much of the Wall Street buying took place in or before 2021, and they had started to back off in 2022, so it’s not clear to me that they would be selling at a loss now. I’m sure that you can find individual homes where, for instance, the renter trashed the place, and it’s being sold at a loss. But overall, it doesn’t look like it.

AJ