A few months ago, I explained why I bought Stamps.com shares (again): http://discussion.fool.com/why-i-bought-stmp-again-32611029.aspx…
I bought a 3% position at over $130 (ugh), but then was able to add twice at around $105. I had more than doubled my shares, and even though the stock price was down, my position was up to 5.7% at the end of April.
Stamps reported on their March quarter yesterday, and things are looking incredible. Here are the metrics I’m looking at most:
M17: $47.36 (up 17%)
note: ARPU is a lever that positively influences revenue, margins, profit, etc
M17: 105M (up 28%)
PS ratio is around 5.7.
As I mentioned in the postscript last time, they had to make a non-GAAP change (to regular cash payer, whatever that means…I think I’ve heard something similar from other companies?) so I don’t know if they’ve broken it down by quarter. They said 5.50 total EPS for 2016 under the new system.
M17: 1.83 (up 62%)
5.50 minus 1.13 plus 1.83 = 6.20. That’s their TTM EPS as far as I can see. Shares are at about 118 right now, so PE = 19.
Raised guidance across the board
We expect total 2017 revenue to be in a range of approximately $405 million to $430 million; this compares to previous guidance of $400 million to $425 million
We expect GAAP net income per fully diluted share to be in a range of approximately $4.78 to $5.69; this compares to previous guidance of $4.20 to $5.10
We expect non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA to be in a range of approximately $205 million to $225 million; this compares to previous guidance of $200 million to $220 million.
We expect non-GAAP adjusted income per fully diluted share is expected to be in a range of $7.00 to $8.00; this compares to previous guidance of $6.00 to $7.00.
Excluding the depreciation and amortization expense, stock-based compensation expense, interest expense and other income, net and income tax expense, we expect non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA to be in a range of approximately $205 million to $225 million; this compares to previous guidance of $200 million to $220 million.
Happy to see shares up of course, but I’m still thinking I might add a bit. Not sure if I’ll wait hoping for a dip or not…I have a 6%+ position already. If I didn’t own STMP, I would definitely at least start a small position. It’s still cheaper than it was 3 months ago!