STNE Rev Growth

This was mentioned when STNE released their preliminary results for 2019 Q1 back on April 1st and I’m just now looking at this more in depth.

Year over year, assuming STNE comes in on the high end of their preliminary results with R$533 million, revenue increases 85.7% which is a significant deceleration from the two previous quarters.

Year  Q1   Q2  Q3   Q4
2018           121% 114%
2019  86%

Seasonality was mentioned as a factor, and it may be 1 component of it, but I still don’t understand the drop off. From 2017 Q4 to 2018 Q1 revenue grew 16%. For 2018 from Q4 to to 2019 Q1 we are looking at revenue growth of less than 1%.

Year  Q1   Q2  Q3   Q4
2017           187  247
2018  287      414  529
2019  533

Thoughts from the STNE followers?


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My assumption is that seasonality and the Christmas period spending leads to a heavy Q4 and a relatively lighter Q1.

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My assumption is that seasonality…

I just don’t spot the same level of seasonality in the year prior, or from Square, which is my nearest approximation to STNE. Am I over-thinking this with a quarterly revenue growth deceleration from 16% to less than 1%? SQ seems to clip along with 8-9% quarter to quarter growth during the same time frames.


If you are looking at year on year changes there shouldn’t be any seasonality - the same quarter this year contained the same season a year ago. The only time this is a claimable position is if something moves in or out of a particular calendar quarter giving extra public holidays (election days, leap years, # of trading days) but that is slight or if there is a weather related difference - bad hurricane season etc).