STNE : Update

In early January, I’d introduced StoneCo (STNE) to this board.

STNE is a hyper growth Brazilian fintech business which is backed by Berkshire Hathaway, Ant Financial, Walmart Family and Jorge Paulo Lemann (3G Capital).

The business’ top line is growing by triple digits and it is already profitable.

I’d invested in STNE at $18.50 in early Jan and it is now trading at $27.54 (+49% in less than 2 months).

Although the stock has gone up a fair bit since early January, the company is likely to remain in high growth mode for several years and the current valuation is still pretty fair.

Best,

GM

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STNE was UP 11.77% today and it is still trading at a PEG ratio of ONE !!!

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I hold positions in PAGS and STNE. the recent PAGS ER was excellent - I wonder if it is part of the catalyst here? Couldn’t find anything specific to STNE - not that I’m complaining…

I don’t own PAGS but it was recently announced that Berkshire added to its STNE position. Perhaps that may have something to do with the big rally?

Brazilian fintech appears to be a long-term high-growth story and these stocks should do well for at least 3-5 years.

Lets see how it plays out.

Best,

GM

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All I’m aware of is that STNE was participating in the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media, and Telecom Conference in San Francisco, but I can’t find additional info yet.

https://investors.stone.co/events/event-details/morgan-stanl…

https://www.morganstanley.com/Themes/tech-media-telecom-tren…

-ElonFeeNix
mid-size position in STNE

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Maybe it’s just me, but the word “Brazilian” is right up there with “Chinese” when it comes to investing. There are too many accounting unknowns/anomalies/aberrations that fall short of my comfort zone. Safe investing to you!

🆁🅶🅱
wordlessly watching, he waits by the window and wonders…

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I guess there is a reasonable set of worries regarding emerging markets.

I understand it, and I guess it’s a function of your life experiences.

GM live in HK i believe, and his worldview is more likely to be global in terms of markets given his previous experience.

I have grown up and worked in 5 countries across the spectrum of what we call “development”. I travel a lot - just shy of 40 countries so far, and the great thing about emerging markets is the rapid adoption of technology in ways that are so different from what is done in the US or Europe, but clearly solving a need. It’s really apparent when you visit the same country at intervals.

I think each investor must understand themselves and their own risk tolerance. Your investments should not cause you to lose sleep.

I like PAGS and STNE. But fully respect those who shy away.

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To the man with the hammer, the whole world looks like a nail.

If one has already decided that entire nations are corrupt and anti-West (thus unsuitable for investment); then obviously, there is no point discussing international investing further.

Plenty of Chinese/Latin American people and companies are honest and many stocks have done remarkably well over the past decade but each to their.

Best,

GM

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GM,

Thanks to you bringing Stone to this board, I liked what you presented and what I saw in the company, and started a position in the very low 20s and have been adding since.

Happy I did!

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You are welcome Foodles; glad my analysis benefited you.

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From GrowthMonkey:

I’d invested in STNE at $18.50 in early Jan and it is now trading at $27.54 (+49% in less than 2 months).

Congrats GM, STNE is up another 8% today, over $32, and has increased 50% in the last 2 weeks! Almost every day its been up 5-10% on high volume.

Yes, maybe getting ahead of itself, but maybe not…

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Thank you.

Despite nearly doubling in less than two months, STNE still trading at a PEG ratio of around 1.1

Its growth story seems to have only just begun and the high quality backers = good sleep at night.

Best,

GM

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Hi, GrowthMonkey!

Thanks in part to your STNE info, as well as info from a couple other places around the Fool where they’ve been talking about the company, I increased my position on Wednesday of this last week. Wanted you to get some credit for that. :slight_smile: Now 5.8% of my portfolio (all shares/no options) and #6 overall, not counting my cash position.

Why such a high allocation for such a new company?

Fast growth in an under-served, fast growing market
Relatively light capital requirements
Good margins
Excellent valuation (as GrowthMonkey pointed out)
Very strong backers (including Berkshire Hathaway)

Why not a higher allocation?

…frankly, I can’t have a dozen companies all at 24% of my portfolio like TTD. :wink:

Currently ~9B market cap, with a business similar to SQ…but in Latin America. It’d be hard for SQ to be a 5- or 10-bagger from where its at…not nearly so hard for STNE.

Yes, there is competition. So what? There can be multiple winners in the payment enabling and finance markets. And at this early stage, that competition doesn’t appear to be a factor at all with clients up over 100% yoy and total payment volume up over 73% yoy.

For those interested…according to this: https://investors.stone.co/news-releases/news-release-detail… , they will be reporting on March 18th.

Not currently a Fool recommendation anywhere as near as I can tell…but I expect it will be eventually.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Market Pass Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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I too ended up following GrowthMonkey into STNE. I like much of what I’ve seen, researched, in the company. I’m trying to learn more about management, their quality, how innovative they are (this is a space that requires continued innovation to thrive, in my opinion). If anyone has any details or links, I would appreciate it.

Rob

Hi Rob,

I haven’t been on this board for a few days; so just saw your post - very kind of you.

Frankly, you deserve the credit for acting on my post and investing your funds.

I’m still long from $18.50 and have no intention of either trimming or selling out of my position - think this will probably be a big winner over the next few years.

Apart from STNE, I’ve picked up TME, HUYA and NIO in the past few weeks.

These are MONSTER growth stories and their stocks have already appreciated a fair bit since I invested; but they still offer a lot of long-term upside in my view.

HUYA announced earnings a few hours ago and its revenue grew 103% YOY! The company is backed by Tencent which is one of the largest companies on the planet.

NIO is a newly listed EV maker and is working on autonomous driving technology - it has many institutional investors (Baidu, Tencent, Sequoia Capital and Temasek - Singapore’s Sovereign Wealth Fund). NIO plan’s to sell 40k EVs this year and around 80k in 2020 and in my view, its market cap is still small; given the long-term potential.

TME is China’s ‘Spotify’ and it owns a chunk of Spotify! Its a monopoly in China (76% market share) and has signed exclusive licensing deals with Sony and Warner; and is currently bidding to acquire 50% of Universal’s music business. Sony and Warner own small stakes in TME.

They are Chinese companies so not sure if any interest to you - but since you invested in STNE (another non-US company) I’m sharing with you…

I know many on this board don’t care about valuations (each to their own); but I’d like to mention that many hyper-growth businesses in Brazil, China etc are currently trading at silly valuations; thus am fairly certain they will provide much higher CAGR when compared to the richly valued US stocks.

Over the past 6 months, I’ve increased my exposure to non-US stocks and international now represents around 60% of my portfolio.

All the best!

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hi Rob

you may find these of use

https://braziljournal.com/brazils-stone-ipo-more-like-square…

a few more here https://braziljournal.com/tag/Stone

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Hey, GM.

Over the past 6 months, I’ve increased my exposure to non-US stocks and international now represents around 60% of my portfolio. – GrowthMonkey

I’m usually quite conservative regarding offshore investments, primarily for three reasons:

  1. Company risk
    A lot of offshore companies aren’t as transparent on what they’re doing…or if they are, you won’t like what they’re doing. LOL. I remember a Chinese fertilizer company I ended up selling because they got into an unrelated business…company/stock later blew up.

  2. Country risk
    China and Russia tend to do things that result in surprises, often unpleasant. Kind of confirms the term Russian roulette. A peculiar Chinese risk includes VIEs. An unfavorable legal ruling could be ugly for all Chinese investments. I think its low probability, but it is in back of mind. VIEs aside, I’ve frequently seen Chinese actions that squash Chinese stocks. Pronouncements by “Chinese media” which are thinly veiled statements of impending governmental action against certain companies and/or the types of businesses they’re in. Video games have been a frequent target and NTES stock has been hit before.

  3. Currency risk
    I think this is under appreciated and its mostly a Latin American risk. Financial results can appear exciting in local currency… but not so impressive when considered in USD. Some say that local currency is what matters but I disagree because the results of any investment…in terms of my own portfolio…is strictly dependent on the USD because that’s what pays the bills.


All that being said, I’ll peek at the Chinese companies. Maybe worth a few bucks anyway. :slight_smile:

So with the above, why did I buy STNE? Because the USD results look very good…plus the other reasons discussed in this thread.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Market Pass Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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Thanks, tchalla!

Rob
Rule Breaker / Market Pass Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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Thank you GM and tchalla for the references.