Stock Intimacy vs Excitement

Here is a trend I have noticed:

When my intimacy with a company and its stock increases, I tend to make money.

When my excitement for a company’s products increases, I tend to loose money.

Excitement for the company itself makes money only if intimacy is greater than excitement.

In this context:

Intimacy: Familiarity with management, finances, what the products are, how the stock tends to move, when the stock is undervalued or overvalued, etc.

Excitement for Product: Any sort of interest in the product in a way that is detached from the company itself. How the product will effect my life, how it will make the world a better place, how useful it will be to people, etc.

Excitement for Company: Any sort of interest in a company being well run, making money, being well managed, creating good products, etc.

This pattern is very reliable as I review past investment decisions (though not perfect). This is not quite dispassionate investing. Excitement for a company (not its products) helps maintain a desire for intimacy with the company (gives me a reason to follow news, read earnings reports, study finances, etc.).

From this perspective, I am somewhat worried about my current investment in Nvidia (NVDA) and cautious about my investment in Square (SQ) and Kite Pharma (KITE). Not that these are bad investments, just my personal excitement is too high compared to my level of intimacy with each company.

I may be wrong. Just an idle Sunday evening musing as I review my investments.

Thoughts?

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were you excited about the early iPhones? I was. Apple did fine so did AAPL.

Though I think you make a valid point. We can invest small amounts buying a product but larger amounts in buying a stock. Thus more to lose in the latter.

“Familiarity with management” – as passive investors we are mostly familiar only with what they say in public. Warren Buffett familiarity is on another scale.
"under valued or over valued " – compared to what?

Intimacy can just lead to false sense of worth- much like most of us think our own dogs are above average dogs.

Me I doubt the whole “value” concept in many of the stocks I buy where the value is in the unknown future. Meanwhile they are in fact worth whatever somebody will pay for them.

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Thoughts?

Excitement for Product can be very dangerous. Unlike the parable of the better mousetrap, quality does not decide which product wins. The safe bet is on the market leader.

Denny Schlesinger

Build a better mousetrap, and the world will beat a path to your door

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Build_a_better_mousetrap,and

I may be wrong. Just an idle Sunday evening musing as I review my investments.

Thoughts?

Easy. Increase your due diligence efforts on NVDA, SQ and KITE and see if your intimacy rises to match your excitement.

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