I’ve been considering the relative merits of Roku and The Trade Desk for a while now. In the end, I think they have about an equal opportunity in the advertising space.
In Roku’s case, if you peg the future CTV ad market to eventually reach 200 billion, give Roku 1/3 of streamed hours, and 30% of ad revenue streaming through its service, you’re looking at peak revenues of about 20b.
In The Trade Desk’s case, if you peg the entire programmatic market to eventually be at 1 trillion usd, and allow for The Trade Desk to be transacting 10% of programmatic spend through their platform, and taking 20% of that as revenue, you’re also looking at peak revenue of 20b.
Which of these scenarios is more likely? That’s surely an exercise in speculation. But it’s clear that both companies have the potential to become behemoths.