The American forward military presence in the Gulf region is intended to assure a steady flow of energy from the Persian Gulf. It has spectacularly failed to do that. It is meant to project power against Iran and to defend the Gulf countries from attacks from Iran. It has also failed to do that. The Gulf states really did not want this war, and they are outraged with the U.S. for bringing it to them. Instead of protecting the Gulf states, the American bases they host have made them targets. Once busting with confidence in the American security umbrella that protected them, Sheline says that now the Gulf states “must grapple with the reality that the presence of U.S. military bases and other assets are proving a much greater liability than a source of security.” The Gulf states really did not want this war, and they are outraged with the U.S. for bringing it to them.
The Gulf states are very angry with Iran. But Iran is also very angry with the Gulf states. Iran is aware that the U.S. is using its Gulf bases in various ways, including for radars that are a crucial part of its air defence system. Iran has targeted those radars and has rendered many of the 13 bases in the region “uninhabitable.”
What is the cost of that failure?
One wonders how NATO members, Australia & Japan view the US failure and how much value they will place upon US guarantees of protection.
Could they seek new trade & security agreements from other nations? Or would those nations just move more toward neutrality and away from US strategic interests?
The US is so desperate to end the debacle that it’s unilaterally claiming the cease-fire is still intact. We’re untrustworthy, weak, and dumb.
Carney said it best, “it’s time to kick the US to the curb”, or something like that. The world order has completely changed in less than 2 years, I wouldn’t have thunk it possible.
There are indications that Washington is now considering the release of frozen Iranian assets, possibly in exchange for an extended suspension of nuclear activities. Yet from Tehran’s perspective, this proposal collides with a long and painful history of broken promises. On multiple occasions, the United States claimed to have released frozen assets but continued to pressure international banks and financial institutions to not work with Iran. The result was a functional denial of access. Funds that were theoretically freed remained effectively unreachable.
the dilemma of sanctions relief
This is not a new battlefield. The economic war predates the recent conventional conflict. For decades, the sanctions regime has inflicted profound humanitarian costs — casualties measured not in bullets, but in medicine denied, food costs inflated, and livelihoods eroded.
The core problem is structural.
What stands in the way is not a lack of authority. It is the persistent fantasy that Iran will capitulate under financial pressure. That fantasy has not aged well. After decades of pressure, Iran has not surrendered.