Strategy of Shopify's $1 to $1.01B 2018 guid

From the latest quarter’s release:
For the full year 2018, Shopify currently expects:
• Revenues in the range of $1 billion to $1.01 billion
• GAAP operating loss in the range of $105 million to $110 million
• Adjusted operating profit in the range of $0 million to $5 million, which excludes stock-based compensation expenses and related payroll taxes of $110 million

I am going to agree with some of what Tinker has pointed out. If they weren’t extremely confident that they will top $1B in revenue for the year, I seriously doubt they’d have thrown that number out there. Passing that threshold is quite a milestone, and to throw that out as guidance and then not hit it would be quite a blow. The $10M range of the guidance is probably a bit of a joke as Tinker has pointed out.

Additionally, I don’t think they’d have thrown out guidance of having an adjusted positive profit if they weren’t very, very confident that they’ll hit it.

Thus, with the tight guidance ranges and nearness to big milestones for both of those numbers, I sense some sand-bagging from Tobi and Shopify.

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