Supply chain issues

This article says that supply chain issues are a growing problem.

‘The Supply Chain Does Not Exist’
https://dailycaller.com/2022/05/01/renewable-energy-industry…

  • Wind and solar companies have reported massive profit declines over the last year as clean energy prices have risen and new installations have been delayed thanks to supply chain shortfalls, market uncertainty and the Ukraine crisis.
  • “One of the problems with this industry as a whole is that, since at its very foundation it is based on government subsidies and government mandates, its market value is never truly known,” said Daniel Turner, the executive director of Power the Future.
  • “90% to 95% of the supply chain does not exist,” RJ Scaringe, CEO of electric vehicle maker Rivian, told reporters in April, according to The Wall Street Journal.

DB2

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The article seems to overstate the problem.

Wind turbines. Those big blades are mostly made from oil. Rising energy costs do impact the cost of new installations and have hurt the profits of the companies that build them. We still have the need especially if Europe is to be free of Russian oil and gas. Whats the point?

Lithium. The industry has major growth plans. Producers are building capacity. Much depends on timing. Its not a chicken and egg problem. Both suppliers and users are aware and working on it.

Solar is most complex because China is low cost producer. Tariffs on imports increase costs.

Nickel, cobalt. Its a concern.

Commodity markets are real. Changes in demand have an impact until markets balance. Griping about it doesn’t change anything. Savvy players work the futures markets. New investments can be very profitable if your timing is right and costs are competitive. But of course you can also lose you shirt.

Same old same old!!!

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This is a start at chipping against China’s solar panel dominance.

https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/95259-solar-panel-maker…

Fuskie
Who has hope that investment in American manufacturing will be driven by corporate demand for energy cost savings, which is usually what it takes to move economies…


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American manufacturing will be driven by corporate demand for energy cost savings

I think we also learn the risks of relying on supply from China. Covid impacts availability. Ports are jammed delaying delivery.

Just in time supply chain has been a disaster.

Nearby manufacture has significant advantages. Diversification of manufacturing sites also has obvious advantages. Over concentration in one place is clearly a risky strategy.

A cost saver if you get away with it, but disaster if you get caught.

Might be one of those Black Swan events but they do happen.

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Wind turbines. Those big blades are mostly made from oil. Rising energy costs do impact the cost of new installations and have hurt the profits of the companies that build them. We still have the need especially if Europe is to be free of Russian oil and gas. Whats the point?

Well, it does make it harder to meet the goal. From April:
www.rechargenews.com/wind/were-all-in-trouble-wind-turbine-m…
Raw material and logistics inflation coupled with downward price pressures from auctions have led to an unsustainable situation where wind OEMs are selling at a loss, with the sector unable to deliver Europe’s planned tripling of wind capacity by 2030, industry leaders have warned…

Lithium. The industry has major growth plans. Producers are building capacity. Much depends on timing.

Indeed.
https://issues.org/environmental-economic-costs-minerals-sol…
A recent analysis by the Wood Mackenzie consultancy found that if EVs are to account for two-thirds of all new car purchases by 2030, dozens of new mines must be opened just to meet automotive demands—each mine the size of the world’s biggest in each category today. But 2030 is only eight years away and, as the IEA has reported, opening a new mine takes 16 years on average.

And further down the life cycle, as pauleckler posted a couple of days ago, lithium processing and recycling may be shut down in Europe.

DB2

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And in a parallel thread we read that

How a battery shortage is hampering the U.S. switch to wind, solar power
www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/how-battery-sh…
At least a dozen storage projects meant to support growing renewable energy supplies have been postponed, canceled or renegotiated as labor and transport bottlenecks, soaring minerals prices, and competition from the electric vehicle industry crimp supply.

DB2

On lithium. They say the service life of on EV battery is likely to be about 8 years. Presumably due to declining storage capacity, shorter range.

Elon thinks those used batteries can still be repurposed for stationary storage as for power companies.

And used batteries can be processed to recover metals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt.

At about 2030 you should get to steady state where recycling supplies most of the new vehicle need. Growing need for lithium slows. So does the need for new manufacturing capacity. The EV growth curve flattens. The market matures. But an attractive growth rate until then.

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At about 2030 you should get to steady state where recycling supplies most of the new vehicle need. Growing need for lithium slows. So does the need for new manufacturing capacity. The EV growth curve flattens.

This implies that the EV market pretty much tops out circa 2030. What do you expect the market penetration to be by then?

DB2

Personally I think EVs are unsuitable some jobs. My guess is 50% market share, 9MM EVs in the US by 2030 to be successful.

I think hydrogen fueled vehicles will ultimately be the alternative if fossil fuels get phased out.

But all this requires the public to accept EVs as suitable for their needs. Risks involved. We shall see.