Or ‘EV euphoria’ as Goffyhoofy put it. At any rate, high rates of regret slows down the penetration rate of EVs.
DB2
Or ‘EV euphoria’ as Goffyhoofy put it. At any rate, high rates of regret slows down the penetration rate of EVs.
DB2
What amuses me is the huge amount of money USian and EU automakers have poured in to EVs, while some of the Japanese CEOs were skeptical. “JCs” pull down ther $20-$30M/year for being smarter than the rest of us, but I have never seen evidence of their superiority.
Steve
There was certainly a lot of discussion here about Akio Toyoda’s preference for hydrogen over EVs. He was eventually pushed out of office at Toyota back at the beginning of 2023.
DB2
People in apartments should not buy electric cars unless they have their own garage.
Or can charge at work
Or have a convenient fast charger nearby
Or have an outdoor carport with chargers.
Or are wanna-be reporters writing about the negatives of EV ownership.
Mike
agreed
The Chicago charging story last winter was the heads up. It makes it difficult for cities whole sale to convert to EVs.
A study by Lee et al. examined the follow-up purchases of 1400 PEV owners (both BEV and PHEV).
DB2
It may be a rejection of Tesla because of Musk’s behavior. While Tesla sales maybe expanding overall, his antics may drive some of his prior customers away from buying a new Tesla for now. Many will wait for better products from other companies.
That attitude of wanting other company products is pervasive.
It’s been awhile since I’ve rented a vehicle, but I seem to recall that with a gas vehicle, the tank was full when the car was picked up. The rental companies don’t put a full charge on EV’s so that the driver leaves the lot with max range ?
Upon return, the gas vehicle renter either has to bring it back with a full tank, or pay for the rental company to fill it up. The EV renter would have to do the same, I assume.
Seems like the rental companies are performing some poor customer service by sending their customers out with immediate range issues. ( if that is what is happening, I’ve never rented an EV, so no personal experience )
And the news out of Germany…
One in three people switch back to combustion engines
This is shown by data from Huk Coburg, which claims to be Germany’s largest car insurer. According to the data, around 34% of all electric car owners switched back to a diesel or petrol vehicle in the first nine months of this year.
And the trend is clearly on the rise: last year, the proportion of people switching back was just 28 percent, in 2022 it was 18% and in 2021 it was 14%.
DB2
That’s not surprising. As has been mentioned frequently, Germany slashed their subsidies for EV’s. That has reduced demand for EV’s across the board relative to conventional cars, so it’s no surprise that it would also decrease demand even among the population that already owned an EV.
I thought that was a one-time event (end of 2023). The rise in recidivism has been going on for at least three years.
DB2
The shift from 2021 to 2022 was really small. An increase, but generally mild - and one that you would expect, as EV uptake shifted from early adopters (who would be rabid fans of the tech) to include a more general customer base (who would be more likely to ‘revert’ if they needed/wanted a different type of car).
The real increases in reversion happened in '23 and this year - along with the loss of subsidies.
I can see how that could affect purchasing decisions in 2024, but I would think the subsidies were still in effect in 2023 when the switch backs went from 18% to 28% (a 50+% increase).
DB2
The subsidies ended in December of 23. EV sales tanked in 24. I see a few pieces on line about attempts to restore the subsidies last September and October.
Steve
True, but if you were a happy EV owner in 2023 then a replacement EV would have been no problem as the subsidies were still in place (and their phase out might even have been an incentive to get a newer EV before the end of the year). However, what we saw is that switches back to ICE vehicles increased by over 50% that year.
DB2
Yeah, but it also sent a pretty powerful signal that Germany was retrenching from supporting EV’s through subsidies going forward. I can see people who have to decide whether to replace their current EV with either a replacement EV or go back to an ICE taking that into account. Plus, a lot of EV’s in Germany were fleet vehicles as well - where decisions are going to be made on a slightly longer-term basis.
Well, if you were an EV owner in 2023, and were ready to switch to a new vehicle, then you probably had a relatively old EV model, probably 2017 or older. And those older models were rather lackluster and had assorted issues that might cause a person to think twice about buying another EV. The current models of EV, let’s say 2021 and newer, are far better, and satisfy the customer more often. So in 2027/28, when they switch to a new vehicle, they will probably be mre amenable to buying another EV.
That’s one of the great things about Tesla models, because they provide regular software updates (and I mean VERY regular), they add whichever features can be supported by the old hardware (the aforementioned 2017 and older ones), and that generally delights the owners and makes their EV owning experience far better.
It seems German EV subsidies were already being cut back in 2023 before the unexpected cessation in 12/23.
From 2022:
Germany to reduce electric car subsidies in 2023
https://www.reuters.com/technology/german-coalition-parties-agree-reduce-e-car-subsidies-handelsblatt-2022-07-26/
July 26 (Reuters) - Germany will reduce financial incentives to buy electric cars next year after an agreement within the governing coalition, as the vehicles’ growing popularity makes government subsidies unnecessary, Germany’s economy ministry said on Tuesday.
The incentives, or premiums, paid to buyers of electric cars will expire completely once an allocated sum of 3.4 billion euros ($3.44 billion) from the next two years’ budget is spent, according to government sources…
Under the plan, premiums for fully electric-powered vehicles priced below 40,000 euros will fall to 4,500 euros at the beginning of next year [2023] from 6,000 euros currently, and fall to 3,000 euros in the following year [2024].
DB2
All the data suggests this is almost entirely about sticker price. EU BEV prices have been rising since 2020 even though battery prices have been declining. The reason is because legacy European automakers are focusing on profit margins rather than market share by pushing ever bigger and more expensive BEVs. EV prices in Europe rise despite record low battery costs
Survey after survey shows cost to be a key barrier to a faster BEV adoption. T&E has commissioned YouGov in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland and the UK to find out whether an offer of a €25k BEV would make a difference. If the survey results were replicated in the car market, the advent of affordable small BEVs would bring the sales share of fully electric cars to 35%. The increase due to the availability of small BEVs would result in an additional 1 million electric cars being sold annually, replacing combustion equivalents. https://www.transportenvironment.org/articles/small-and-profitable-why-affordable-electric-cars-in-2025-are-doable
The test will come in 2025-2026 when a bunch of $25K cars are scheduled to enter the EU market. Here is one projection based on this reduction on BEV prices.