LOL. I can back up Brennan et. al…I have two teenage boys, ages 16 and 13. They watch Twitch as a well, and they also use the phrase “crap ton”. 
If you’re not a recent parent of teenager, you have no inkling of how popular gaming is and the potential dollar upside of the gaming industry. Also, I’m a heavy iPhone user myself and I’m only beginning to glimpse the possibilities of what’s possible as data demand and capacity increases. Skyworks ain’t goin’ nowhere!
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Since you’re just starting out on the boards I’ll take the liberty of explaining something useful to you. Most quotes are copied in italics on the boards. The way you do that is to put these symbols before and after the words you want italicized: and .
Thanks Saul,
Not going to lie, googled it right after I posted that response haha.
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I am not at all sure that, for an 18 year-old, this board ‘is a good place to be’. Possibly it is a good place to be along with other good places to be. One good place to be would be running an imaginary portfolio for a couple of years as an (albeit too short) test of his uncertain abilities which clearly have an inclination towards risk.
In addition, he should try reading instead of watching videos. Read widely. Start with the great American classics. For at least two hours a day, read about investing, but only by authors who are rich and those who avoid technology to understand why they do so. Take a course in accountancy. Do not even think about investing until you can define at least 30 business metrics. If you can, get a job and investigate every detail of the business, how it makes money, how it could make more.
Work hard, avoid social media and you have got a real chance in life. And remember that you make serious money from running a business, not investing in them.
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Between this and the ULTA board you’re sounding so crotchety lately. I’m thrilled that an 18 year old is here. An 18 year old can take some risk because they have tons of glorious time to recover if they have setbacks.
There is no one and only way to invest successfully.
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Strelna, you’re a curmudgeon. I think you and I would get along famously.
KC
Youth needs guidance and often doesn’t get it. Starting to compound early (lesson in investing #1) can be fatally compromized by failing to avoid losing money (#2) which hopefully reduces with every year as an investor. Taking a couple of years out - omitting the first two years - to contemplate the scene without noise and distraction may be valuable; an investment, you could say.
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remember that you make serious money from running a business, not investing in them.
Yeah, nobody’s ever made any serious money investing in businesses! 
I think I would change that line to, you make serious money from running a business or investing in good businesses, not from working for someone else’s business.
I agree that if this is the only board a new 18 year old investor is on and trying to learn from, it could be dangerous if only because this board is not giving buy and sell recommendations, but instead contains discussions of stocks that each individual should make their own decision on. The discussions I feel are mostly on very good stocks that you would do well to buy and hold for some time.
My biggest advice to the new investor (any age) coming to this board (or any board) would be to only be investing discretionary money that you can afford to lose. That, and be patient.
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I am not at all sure that, for an 18 year-old, this board ‘is a good place to be’. Possibly it is a good place to be along with other good places to be. One good place to be would be running an imaginary portfolio for a couple of years as an (albeit too short) test of his uncertain abilities which clearly have an inclination towards risk.
First of all thank you for your advice. I definitely appreciate it and a lot of it is true, I just wanted to clarify some things. I didn’t realize my presence here would spark a debate.
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I actually started investing when I was 14 years old so I have a bit (albeit a very very small) bit of experience. I don’t invest blindly and I actually have had an imaginary portfolio on marketwatch for 2 years where I pursue high risk investments. Historically most of my investments have been in products I use (my first investments ever were UA and NKE)so I’m new to a lot of the statistical analysis. I also took AP Economics so I’m starting to get some idea especially in debt/equity/other things like that, but I definitely need to look more into what the statistics mean.
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I’m not super serious about investing for profit. My entire life savings (if that’s even a thing at 18) aren’t in this account and I don’t really care if I lose half my money. I actually invest for fun and because I find it interesting.
Work hard, avoid social media and you have got a real chance in life. And remember that you make serious money from running a business, not investing in them.
I actually hate social media, such a toxic and time sucking environment. Haven’t used FB in like 3 years and don’t even have an Instagram or Snapchat (The popular social media nowadays). The last part of advice I think is a really good saying. It’s really easy for me to slip into the idea that because I’m investing early and with the powers of compounding just to sit back and let the money role in. Thank you for keeping me grounded
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This also might be a bad habit but I tend not to trust a lot of websites/sources because they can be heavily biased. I actually trust message board more because people don’t have anything to gain. And it’s always nice to see everyone’s opinion so I can make better decisions.
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I also took AP Economics so I’m starting to get some idea especially in debt/equity/other things like that, but I definitely need to look more into what the statistics mean.
(I think you mean factors here and not statistics)
Hi Brennan,you are certainly on the right path. Having a passion for investing and having fun while doing it will certainly lead you to good result. You are young (but from you writing pretty mature) and you have all the time to take calculated risks.
About starting to involve statistics with investment one should take into account that this is a sure path to losses in the long tun.
There are several books on that matter By Nassim Nicholas Taleb:
- Fooled By Randomness
- The Black Swan
- Antifragile.
I think reading “The Black Swan” first will be the way to go.
You can get it from the library and in some case as an audio book.
After reading this book you’ll realize that applying statistics methods (like normal or Gausian distributions) are not only futile but dangerous.
Sticking with Great companies who have great products is a much better path.
In any case I wish you good luck!
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Congratulations on your very sensible approach - and well done on NKE and UA!
Nike is a long-held holding and has come through my screens often but I was too slow and then never managed UA owing to price.
I think I would change that line to, you make serious money from running a business or investing in good businesses, not from working for someone else’s business.
My version of the concept is that almost nobody gets really wealthy through being paid for their own work. The main path to wealth is to get paid for the work of others. That could mean buying shares, or running your business; no sure things in either case(!), but being an owner gives the best odds.
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I will share one of my favorite blogs in case it is of interest. Joshua started investing at a young age too, and he has a lot of opinions about building wealth. Smart guy. There are many ways to invest, and comparing / contrasting Saul and Joshua, and taking it all in to see what resonates with you might be interesting. I enjoy both places very much.
Best wishes!
Karen
Hi Folks, I talked to an Electrical Engineer who is an expert in CellPhone hardware. He has been in this field for about 15 years and he is extremely smart. He works for the one of the high tech companies.
He meets with SWKS AVGO and QRVO people on a daily basis.
They are all potential suppliers of a chipset for the product he is working on.
He says that SWKS Avago and QRVO are the leaders in chip sets for Cell Phones. When I asked him to pick a winner he more or less said they are all equal.
He did sya that the SWKS solution works period.
About 5G, he said that this technology is a small cell technology. What this means is that due to physical limitation it is limited in range and could not be deployed only by cellular towers only.
He thinks (probably more knows that thinks)_that the deployment of this technology will require adding some components to the home.
So this is not so encouraging.
On the other hand he thinks (This is even more knows than thinks) that the LTE growth has some years ahead of it.
For me the conclusion is that SWKS has probably 3-5 years of rapid growth in the LTE CELLPHONE. This means it is investable but should be watched carefully. This what we are doing anyway.
As for other futuristic markets like the internet of things…
Well he thinks that this more of a slogan than a vision. No one knows exactly what it is.
I will currently watch their Cell Phone execution and ignore the “Internet of Things” theme unless we’ll see a concrete vision that we can understand what it is and we’ll know it is useful.
In Short: SWKS has some guaranteed growth ahead of it of several years. We can take advantage of it and be profitable. We should be aware that this growth may come to an end and sell when this happens.
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shukisasson,
Thanks for the inside info, interesting stuff.
About 5G, he said that this technology is a small cell technology. What this means is that due to physical limitation it is limited in range and could not be deployed only by cellular towers only.
He thinks (probably more knows that thinks)_that the deployment of this technology will require adding some components to the home. So this is not so encouraging
I’m curious why you think this is not encouraging? Skyworks makes components that are used for connectivity of lots of things not just phones. More components, more solution, more sales. On the Raymond James investor conference that Saul so kindly posted, Aldrich specifically talks about 5G as an opportunity for them. It’s a great listen and I highly recommend it.
Brian
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Just FYI,
David Kretzmann, TMFPencils, started posting on Fool boards around age 12. Most readers of his posts, including me, were very surprised when we found out how young he was.
After graduating from college, he accepted a position at the Fool.
Perhaps some of you have met him or seen him in some Fool videos.
http://my.fool.com/profile/TMFPencils/activity.aspx
Fool on,
mazske
Check my profile to see all I hold
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I’m curious why you think this is not encouraging? Skyworks makes components that are used for connectivity of lots of things not just phones. More components, more solution, more sales. On the Raymond James investor conference that Saul so kindly posted, Aldrich specifically talks about 5G as an opportunity for them. It’s a great listen and I highly recommend it.
This all means that moving from 4G to 5G involves with major infrastructure changes on the carriers themselves. It may never happen…
Also if it does happen it is not an evolution but revolution, that of course is where other start ups with different technology may come and capture the market.
So in short SkyWorks dominance after 4G is not guaranteed.
By the way I did listen to the presentation and I did see that the CEO puts 5G there as his vision. It doesn’t mean that he already has a winning solution for it. Remember this is an investor conference. 5G may be an opportunity but as much as it is an opportunity it is also a significant challenge. For 4G I believe they have a winning solution.
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Well, this thread wandered completely OT. So I’ll interject a thought about the SWKS moat. Note that SWKS is not just a design shop, they also manufacture their chips/systems.
Don’t trivialize this, especially when it comes to complex analog systems operating in close proximity to digital systems. There are precious few environments more prone to interference problems than the analog systems in smart phone. In order to eliminate interference in this environment SWKS must master many technologies, especially filters with is one of their core competencies. And building the system so that it works and always works requires a lot of attention to component placement. This goes way beyond a schematic design, this involves physical lay-out. The length of traces, shielding, etc, etc.
Much of this is learned by trial and error. This becomes part of their IP, some of it protected by patent, and some of it held as trade secret. While SWKS has competent competitors, SWKS solutions are just that “solutions.” They have a reputation for building stuff that always meets or exceeds specs.
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Well, this thread wandered completely OT. So I’ll interject a thought about the SWKS moat. Note that SWKS is not just a design shop, they also manufacture their chips/systems.
Don’t trivialize this, especially when it comes to complex analog systems operating in close proximity to digital systems. There are precious few environments more prone to interference problems than the analog systems in smart phone. In order to eliminate interference in this environment SWKS must master many technologies, especially filters with is one of their core competencies. And building the system so that it works and always works requires a lot of attention to component placement. This goes way beyond a schematic design, this involves physical lay-out. The length of traces, shielding, etc, etc.
Much of this is learned by trial and error. This becomes part of their IP, some of it protected by patent, and some of it held as trade secret. While SWKS has competent competitors, SWKS solutions are just that “solutions.” They have a reputation for building stuff that always meets or exceeds specs.
Avago and QRVO have the same expertise and same capabilities. What is going for SWKS is the ongoing relationships with customers like AAPL and others.
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shukisasson,
I wasn’t trying to imply that SWKS had no competitors, I was only trying to highlight one of the barriers to entry (an alligator). Even with designers walking the streets, the ability to actually build these systems is far from trivial. It takes extraordinary fabrication capabilities.