TAA w/ Stocks and Bounds down

Investing Strategies Mechanical Investing
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Allocate Smartly the TAA site that tracks and backtests different strategies posted on their open blog site:

The 1-2 Punch of Major Losses in Both Stocks and Government Bonds
https://allocatesmartly.com/the-1-2-punch-of-major-losses-in…

Random clips from the article which I found informative.
-90 trading days since the S&P 500 (represented by SPY) experienced its last all-time closing high on 01/03/2022. Since that time, SPY is down -17.6%. Over that same period, intermediate-term US Treasuries (IEF) are down -9.1%.
-There were 447 (overlapping) instances between 1963 and 2021 when the S&P 500 lost at least -15% over 90 trading days.
-When the S&P 500 fell at least -15%, US Treasuries were up in 81% of the time, with an average return of 5.2%. In only one instance did US Treasuries perform as poorly as they are currently (10/19/1987, -8.2%).
-for most of this 60-year period Treasury yields were significantly higher than they are today. That higher yield acted as a cushion . .
-Flipping the analysis: Performance of stocks when bonds are weak
-There were 106 instances between 1963 and 2021 when US Treasuries lost at least -8% over 90 trading days.

RAMc

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Bonds have looked like “return-free risk” for years and years now. Maybe this view is being proved true now?

SA

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Bonds have looked like “return-free risk” for years and years now. Maybe this view is being proved true now?

I’ll say. Way back when, I allowed my US Series E savings bonds to expire and cashed them in to prepay my 8.75% home mortgage. I still had DODIX mutual fund that was bonds. As dividend rate went down and inflation went up, I transferred this to DODFX mutual fund that is international stock fund. I also had some municipal bonds; one paid 13.75% but, as no surprise, they called it after about a year. And I could never find any really good ones after that that paid more than my experienced inflation rate. So I have been out of bonds for many years now. Quite a few years now, actually.