On April 9, 2025, the S&P 500 surged 9.52% in a single day, marking its largest increase since 2008. The cause was not the introduction of any favorable policies but rather Trump’s announcement that morning of reciprocal tariffs taking effect, followed by a sudden declaration at noon to suspend them for 90 days.
This was no accident. Starting from that day, Wall Street coined an acronym for this pattern: TACO, standing for ‘Trump Always Chickens Out.’ Over the past 14 months, this pattern has repeated at least 12 times—every threat, every retreat, every market rebound. However, the Iran incident on March 23 indicated that what was once the most profitable trading strategy is now losing effectiveness. …
Perhaps righteous ROI can be restored by once in a while doubling-down on a really ill-advised policy decision.