Looks like all of Tech (generally speaking) is taking it on the chin today. I am wondering if the big money managers are moving into Financials as they are popping today.
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I am wondering if the big money managers are moving into Financials as they are popping today.
I believe financials/banking have gone up the past couple days because the House voted yesterday to repeal many of the stricter regulations of Dodd-Frank.
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Has all the look of a blow off top.
Starting with NVDA and a $20 swing.
JT
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We might see some money going in non-tech low P/E stocks. DG has a great day today.
My 2 cents
I guess the next question is this a buying opportunity today or do we wait through the weekend to see if the slide continues…
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I guess the next question is this a buying opportunity today or do we wait through the weekend to see if the slide continues…
I hate to say it but bad Mondays quite often follow bad Fridays.
But Mondays are also the best bounce day from bottom to close.
– From my foggy memory and my dusty copy of Yale Hirsh’s book, “Don’t Sell on a Monday”.
JT
Speculation in the hotties needed this…
Down 4.5% today. But for the month, I’m up 4.4%. And for the year, up 46.69%.
I’ll take it.
Have a good weekend everyone!
Vivienne
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Hey Vivienne, for you it’s more of a love-tapping than a beating.
and same here!
Dominic
happy Friday
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Hahaha. I agree with you, Dominic! Happy Friday!
Vivienne
Since the market is closed now, I’m going to take a look on Monday.
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I guess the next question is this a buying opportunity today or do we wait through the weekend to see if the slide continues…
I take it as an opportunity to be ready for whichever way the world turns next week, with the qualification that I am out of cash in all but one account, and that was only due to an allocation error on my part.
With so many days of high flying ports advancing 3,4,5,10% per day, there have got to be some dips coming up, if for no other reason than to make it mathematically possible for a rally to continue. If the tech stocks keep on going like they have been, there will be a blowoff top. I’d rather put up with a little bit of chop in the seas to let it continue upward, preferably at a little slower pace, because otherwise the question of whether this is the top or not will eventually become a legitimate question indeed.
My ports are averaging 161.9% CAGR and I know others are considerably higher still. I don’t care how good the economy maintains; this is not sustainable. It’s time to cool off a little, take a breather and then move ahead at maybe a bit slower pace (just not too much correction first.) 
That’s my vote. Ha. As if it matters to the market. (But it’s what we need.)
Dan
My ports are averaging 161.9% CAGR and I know others are considerably higher still.
What? How could that be? Over what time period are you talking?
.
What? How could that be? Over what time period are you talking?
My dear foodles, where have you been? I have posted my ports many times lately, I have posted a lesson on CAGR (Time is “ANNUALIZED”!) and I have posted my returns & CAGR numerous times.
You sound as if you think this is incredible but it’s all around you. And if (I hope not!) it sounds like bragging, then my bad, because I don’t mean to and IMO there’s absolutely nothing to brag about because when the dip comes (and it will, maybe this is the beginning) I’m sitting on a powder keg, which is exactly why I’m willing to post this information, to see how Saul and others handle this particular conundrum. If you haven’t noticed, it ain’t easy.
So one last time, this is one of several identical - except for size - ports. The slight difference in average CAGR than I posted is because I quickly used an Excel formula for average and included CAGR from all ports because they’re all on one page. So I was a couple of points low.
Notes
• CAGR includes dividends, from hidden columns.
• CAGR from holdings purchased before 1/1/17 are calculated FROM 1/1/17 only.
• CAGR is ANNUALIZED. That’s why, in an earlier post today, I stated that this is not sustainable. I don’t expect my ports to be up 163% at the end of the year, although I wouldn’t mind it. These numbers are before including today’s losses, which will drag down CAGR results substantially.
• Since Saul and several others were up over 40% at the end of May, their CAGR is/was well over 100%.
• I don’t think taking an average of a string of CAGR numbers is a very accurate way to describe CAGR for a portfolio (I’d have to ponder on that a moment) but it was just handy for me to grab with one formula in a spreadsheet.
Ticker Equity Name Bought Cost Size Days Price Gain CAGR
AAPL Apple Inc. 05/20/15 130.61 3.9% 752 154.99 22.0 % 10.2%
ALGN Align Technology, Inc. 05/10/17 137.96 7.3% 31 151.82 10.0 % 226.0%
CSX CSX Corporation 04/13/15 33.04 2.2% 789 53.76 66.6 % 26.7%
CSX CSX Corporation 04/07/15 33.17 2.7% 795 53.76 66.1 % 26.3%
FB Facebook, Inc. 03/21/17 138.69 5.3% 81 154.71 11.5 % 65.1%
FB Facebook, Inc. 04/23/15 83.01 3.9% 779 154.71 86.1 % 33.9%
GOOG Alphabet Inc. 03/21/17 847.56 5.4% 81 983.41 15.9 % 97.9%
GOOG Alphabet Inc. 05/20/15 539.96 4.5% 752 983.41 81.9 % 33.8%
MA Mastercard Incorporated 02/21/17 109.37 6.3% 109 124.76 14.2 % 55.7%
MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. 05/19/17 290.60 5.1% 22 288.12 (0.9 %) -15.3%
MU Micron Technology, Inc. 05/11/17 29.20 11.1% 30 32.45 11.1 % 286.6%
PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. 05/22/17 64.87 3.5% 19 69.01 6.3 % 262.3%
PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. 05/01/17 47.40 6.6% 40 54.39 14.7 % 266.0%
SHOP Shopify Inc. 02/27/17 61.47 10.7% 103 98.84 60.7 % 433.6%
SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. 05/01/17 99.20 6.6% 40 111.01 11.8 % 188.6%
VEEV Veeva Systems Inc. 05/10/17 55.39 11.1% 31 64.99 17.3 % 624.0%
Average CAGR: 163.8%
Hope that answers your questions. If not, please fire away.
Dan
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Another point for you, foodles, which might make you feel better about this.
CAGR over a short time frame is pretty meaningless. Well, it has some value toward direction but little for its numeric value and almost none for the long haul.
If you buy XYZ Monday and it goes up 1.5% (that’s 1-1/2%) your CAGR will be astronomical, in the millions.
Just calculated it. Your CAGR on XYZ on Tuesday is 128,330,558,031,338,000%. In other words, if you could make 1.5% per day on your portfolio, you’d be rich very quickly. That’s what CAGR is.
Does that help?
Dan
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Not to be rude, but CAGR over a mere 30 days is a completely meaningless number.
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Not to be rude, but CAGR over a mere 30 days is a completely meaningless number.
That’s not rude. That’s what I said.
Dan
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If you buy XYZ Monday and it goes up 1.5% (that’s 1-1/2%) your CAGR will be astronomical, in the millions.
Just calculated it. Your CAGR on XYZ on Tuesday is 128,330,558,031,338,000%. In other words, if you could make 1.5% per day on your portfolio, you’d be rich very quickly. That’s what CAGR is.
You may want to check your math. 1.5% compounded for 252 trading days in a year, or even for 365 calendar days is not millions of %.
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You may want to check your math. 1.5% compounded for 252 trading days in a year, or even for 365 calendar days is not millions of %.
Azul:
There is always a killjoy in the house
Very true…I get closer to 22,800% CAGR for 365 days compounding.
Just for fun, and to show how meaningless this discussion is, what if your portfolio lost 1.5% in a day…what is the CAGR then?
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You may want to check your math. 1.5% compounded for 252 trading days in a year, or even for 365 calendar days is not millions of %.
1.5% compounded 252 times for every trading day yields a portfolio that is 4.46x its value from the starting point at the end of the year or 346% CAGR.
I think the above is right - I will never have to worry about making 1.5% every day anyways!
Regards,
A.J.
You may want to check your math. 1.5% compounded for 252 trading days in a year, or even for 365 calendar days is not millions of %.
Correction. That was wrong. Was using Annual growth rate instead of daily growth rate in the equation which affects the power to be raised to.
So, 1 + (0.015/365) = 1.000041096. Take that to the 365th power and then take that to the 365th power again. The end value is 238.62 or 23,762%.
Sorry for the confusion.
A.J.