We are only concluding the second month of 2026, and the tanker market, more specifically, the crude tanker market rates are going nuts. I say “going nuts”, while the CEO of Frontline (FRO) used the expression “going hyperbolic”. Then I saw the rates quoted on major dirty tanker routes from one shipping broker –
7 of 9 routes are above $100K daily. The benchmark VLCC route TD3C is over $210K daily. In Jan 2026, the $100K daily rate was usually a VLCC route. But, this week, the rate spike has spread to the Suezmax (TD20 or TD 27) and Aframax (TD26) vessel category. To add some perspective, the vessel operating costs are $8K - $10K daily
There has been a significant development in the VLCC tanker market in 2026. A private South Korean company (Sinokor) has been buying up older VLCC (built 2008 - 2016) tonnage at elevated prices. Here’s an idea of Sinokor’s influence in the US Gulf Coast export market –Supertanker Shortage Deepens as Sinokor Gains Control - TT
Keeping with the theme, there is a tiny ETF that focuses on tanker shipping, Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET). Again, tiny ETF, but up almost 200% in two months, and over 400% in the last year.
I would imagine that launch sites have been high on the intelligence gathering list. With lots of people not pleased with the Iranian regime gathering info is made a lot easier.
For example, the first strike that took out top Iranian leadership was guided by CIA sources.
The spy agency had been tracking Khamenei’s location for several months before Saturday’s joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, gaining deeper insight into his whereabouts as he moved around. The agency then learned about a Saturday morning meeting of senior Iranian officials at a compound in Tehran that Khamenei was expected to attend.
That insight, relayed to Israeli counterparts, accelerated the timeline for a strike to capitalize on the opportunity, the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters, told CBS News.
@Hohum
Your knowledge of the shipping industry, and especially of reliable reporting on rates and volumes, is of great value to me and I expect to most METARites, and I am very thankful!
The rate of shipping from the US Gulf also went up. So I think of the MEG rate as the risk adjusted rate. While the rate might not get triggered, it still qualifies as the going rate for VLCCs in the MEG region.
There is a separate logistical issue. There are a limited number of major bunkering ports. One of the really significant ones is Fujairah (United Arab Emirates). If that port is unavailable for re-fueling, how does a VLCC get fuel to ballast over to an alternative loading location? If the tanker was in the Far East, there would three or four alternatives. But near Fujairah, not much. The wonderful world of Supply Chain management.