TBs + Bonus Part Two

Investing Strategies Abandoned Arctic Outpost #13
1

Well that didn’t take too awful long.

My assignment this year was the toddlers. So me and the moms take the little ones over to the rookie egg hunting area where most of the eggs are hiding in plane sight. My role is to do nothing more than to keep a few extra Easter Eggs handy to quickly put out in plane sight for the toddlers that aren’t quick enough to find the original batch. Took me a few years to buck all that out but the best fix was to get the mom to take their attention away for a moment or two while I placed an egg just about under their feet. The kids are happy, the moms are happy, and I get to retreat to my office.

Ok so to recap the TBs I already have:

S - TB @ $158.88

SNOW @ 145.54

MNDY @ 128.23

ENPH @ 189.09

MELI @ 1242.65. Fully designated Tweener status meaning I could it but probably not.

MDB @ 210.51. Thing is so overvalued I keep kicking myself for not being more patient; however, the old fight or flee rules apply here so I will just have to bide my time.

TTD @ 57.91. Definitely torn here: Could keep it for promotion to full bench status or cash it in for a short term gain.

Ok so what other opportunities look appealing with the cash I have left.

On the Roster:

  1. NET at anything below $55. NET has a high accumulation rating just now which could be, but might not be, a sort of what we TB pros call a trampoline indicator (TI) support level.

2). GLBE at anything between 25 -27

  1. IOT below 18

  2. PERI Below 38 could work out nicely. The stock has a Relative Strength of around 98 and an Accumulation rating of A+.

A) Not on the Roster:

  1. DDOG - has to be solidly on the list with an awareness that any recovery depends on the economy turning around.

  2. TSLA - showing a lot of weakness this year since they decided to reduce prices back in January for Chinee folks and then a few days ago decided to cut prices on U.S. models. Think has declined 7+% over the last week or so. Which is going to pressure margins while perhaps juicing sales. However, TSLA is a cult stock and the cult is strong. If it gets anywhere near the $170 range I will take a shot at it.

  3. ROKU - for the last year or so ROKU has looked like Sonny Liston (sp) in the infamous Ali fight. Since the end of the year it has began to recover somewhat and has stabilized. Anything below 60 might be worth a look-see.

  4. NFLX is a wild, wild roller coaster ride of a stock. Take a look at some of its short term swings:

Oct 27 $297 to Nov 9 $254
Nov 15 $310 to Nov 29 $280
Dec 2 $320 to Dec 28 $276
Jan 26 $364 to Mar 10 $292
Apr 3 $348 to current

If it breaks 300 I will take a shot at this.

  1. ANET is in the TB Zone now and any further weakness could be all butter. Check out these pro Headlines:

a) latest ER Report:

Scouting Reports:

If it wasn’t for ENPH…ANET could be the TB pick of the week. I would feel much better about it if it dives another 3-5%.

Final note on ANET: The stock has a Relative Strength score of 96% and an Accumulation rating of B+

  1. GRVY…OK…ok this one is a little tricker because its not as well known and its in the process of booming. If it unbooms then it might get interesting. Note: This is not for TB rookies.

BONUS…

Look around. Unless you are in a solitary confinement deep in the damp bowels of prison - or are castaway on an island/atoll in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, odds are you see glass. Face it, without plastic and glass our society might just collapse. And not to belabor the point but there are many different types of glass meaning that glass by its nature is not very democratic as in all glass is not created equal. And thats where TGLS comes in.

Whats a TGLS you might ask? Well… TGLS is the stock sign for Tecnoglass, Inc which is a glass producing company in Columbia, South America. Well…whats so special about that you might ask; after all, we got plenty of glass making companies right here in the good ole USA.

Before I get all into an exhausting 15 min deep dive to TGLS I need to say right off the bat that this is not a sleek and shiny SaaS company that is gonna instill FOMO deep within your greedy little soul. I know this because after checking it out it did not instill FOMO deep within my greedy little soul. That said - they seem more of a potential Stock Advisor company than a Rule Breaker. Here is how they stock up over a few years:

SINCE IPO +324%
5-YEAR +344%
1-YEAR +66.7%

5Y Annualized +34.77% vs +9.52% for the S&P

Thats pretty good shooting anyway you look at it.

Current Price: $40.04
52 Week Range: 16.05 - 45.62
Market Cap: 1.9B
Gross Margin: 48.77%
Momentum: -11.11% Last 5 Days.

Revenue Growth last 4 QTS (Latest First)

60.16%
54.73
38.95
21.35

Here is their last ER and Press Release:

Here is a recent Investor Slideshow:

Note: Pay particular attention to slides #7, 8, 10,

Lots to think through before any investment here - but sometimes the tortoise wins the race with the main concern being how much glass, techno or otherwise folks will be buying in a recession. Other than that - it appears that TGLS, once it falls back a few percentage points might make a nice solid long term investment.

All the Best,

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On thin Ice: Added a small trading block in GRVY at $55.56.

Breaking a couple of TB rules here so thought it best to set a Stop Loss here at $53.02.

All the Best,

3

adding some new (and flash from past) stocks in here, Champ…I like it, thanks!

Haven’t thought about ANET in a while.
Much like Fortinet and Palo Alto, I scratch my head a bit at the valuations.
Does Mr Market think they will expand further and become Cisco-esque, with a mkt cap in the $100’s of billions to boot?

Or will reality show up and say “nah - you look like a friend of Juniper’s to me” and smash their multiple lower?

Dunno.
Infrastructure stocks (NTNX, PSTG) always make me a bit itchy. My concerns are that growth spurts are usually due to lower y/y compares, and their businesses are cyclical in the sense that the CFO’s & CIO’s of the F500 can hem and haw with budgets depending on macro. Think covid clampdown, subsequent supply chain shenanigans, and I wonder if recent spurts are more a nod to a new round of post-WFH buying (“hey…we still need those Datacenters and our cloud costs are too high!”) combined with supply chain improvements.

ANET, in particular, appears to have had a heckuva run. I am not aware of any catalyst to drive Arista-specific gains moving forward…Cisco is still the big dog in the networking space. It could be that ANET found a cloud niche to exploit. But if so, does the recent slowdown in cloud growth bring forth a lagging investment cycle for infrastructure as cloud titans seek to control costs?

Dunno.

Dreamer

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Hi Dreamer:

Long time no see since The Fool nuked the Discussion Boards. Hope you and the Dreamer Clan are all healthy and doing well.

Dreamer you have some of the best analytical ability to be found on the Fool. What’s most impressive to me is how you’ve overcome that handicap to become on of the best investors on The Fool - well done! A lot of folks get so deep into the minutia that they talk themselves out of decent investments or established positions. One need to go no further than the great Saul discussion board to see it in play. Now that is no way an indictment of the Saul board; rather, simply a case whereby there are so many chefs that they are all looking to uncover any sort of stock Achilles heel anyplace, anywhere and everywhere. And it’s not that those folks are wrong - it’s rather that a pitch perfect investment is extremely hard to find and we all have flaws that do not require a Hubble telescope to locate. More to the point, if I had your analytical ability whereby you have an uncanny knack for getting to the bottom line - I would’d be able to invest the way I do - speed boating along - blissfully unaware of subtle dangers lurking just below the water line.

Now on to ANET.

This SA article - ( I know…I know…its only some average guy on SA…but still)…this article for ANET growth potential; in lieu of any underlying analysis or even much secondary thought (its my gift) along with some current rock solid Relative Strength and Accumulation ratings that offer some (possible) support gained them a place on the TB list:

And then there is this:

Arista’s Routed WAN launch set to boost market by $2B-$3B - Wells Fargo.

I note that when the dang thing dipped down this morning to about $158 and some change the only thing keeping me from doing the TB thing was thinking greedily that perhaps another buck or two down would have been more than enough to justify the potential gain.

Proof positive that human flaws are more dangerous to your economic health than hollow supposition or whimsy.

All the Best,

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