TDOC Raises Guidance

From JPM Conference:

Teladoc raises 2020 revenue guidance to $1,091 to $1,093M from prior range of 1,080 to 1,090M. Updates visit guidance to 10.6M from the previous range of 10.4 to 10.6M. Nearing 50% penetration of F500.

When asked why it’s not a commodity, Jason responded that during COVID, providers embraced off-the-shelf solutions like Zoom. But they’re not integrated, not purpose-built, and don’t have Teladoc’s provider network or data-driven insights. Many of them are now coming back to Teladoc. Also, he doesn’t see regulatory or vaccine issues.

You can find the presentation here: https://ir.teladochealth.com/financial-info/sec-filings/defa…

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Teladoc raises 2020 revenue guidance to $1,091 to $1,093M from prior range of 1,080 to 1,090M. Updates visit guidance to 10.6M from the previous range of 10.4 to 10.6M.

Both of those guidance raises are LESS THAN ONE PERCENT at the midpoint. Odd that they think it is worthwhile to issue a press release to say that they have beat guidance by less than one percent.
Saul

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Odd that they think it is worthwhile to issue a press release to say that they have beat guidance by less than one percent.

They didn’t actually put out a press release.

The new guidance was in the investor presentation that was filed today in advance of the JP Morgan conference they will be presenting at.

The stock is down slightly so the market reaction is consistent with Saul’s comment that it’s not a significant boost to what was already expected

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“Both of those guidance raises are LESS THAN ONE PERCENT at the midpoint. Odd that they think it is worthwhile to issue a press release to say that they have beat guidance by less than one percent.”

Perhaps they had to release it because they were presenting the info at a conference today. I assume there is a legal requirement for them to issue a PR if they are giving updated financial info.

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I reviewed the notes from the presentation. Here’s what I thought were the most noteworthy anecdotes…

CEO Jason Gorevic - “And we are now a well-oiled machine when it comes to cross-sell. Our Livongo cross-sell opportunity is now number over 40 opportunities. We have talked about the Guidewell and Tyson Foods cross sells early wins with the Livongo capabilities being sold into both a large leading health plan as well as a very large employer. Hot off the press, I just got something last week, a notification from our team at the end of the week that said that we’re successful in having closed another cross-sell of Livongo capabilities into one of the Teladoc Health clients. It’s a regional Midwest health plan, and we’re very excited to continue to add to the successful cross-sells. And of course, we are well on our way and I would say, into full swing with respect to cross-selling the InTouch capabilities into clients like Geisinger as well as Stoneybrook and other clients. And of course, as you’ve heard me say, we’ve been successful with selling InTouch not only into our U.S. clients, but also internationally.”

CEO Jason Gorevic in response to the cross-sell pilots they are running “Yeah, I think we’re going to see us in market with pilots, with some of our large close health systems even this year in 2021. Now, I don’t think it’s going to have a material impact on our economics in 2021. I think you’ll start to see that in 2022.”

Full notes here - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4398287-teladoc-health-inc-…

Slides the CEO was referencing during the presentation - https://ir.teladoc.com/news-and-events/events-and-presentati…

Past investor presentation notes from end of last year are at the bottom of my TDOC/LVGO post here - https://discussion.fool.com/tdoclvgo-how-we-got-here-34711786.as…

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I feel these projected revenue numbers are terribly low. From their Q3 call TDOC by its own (no LVGO) guided for 1,015M revenue. However, now TDOC has revenue of LVGO as well. In Q3 LVGO reported 106M, and assuming NO GROWTH! of LVGO part, the 2020 revenue must be 1,015M+106M=1,121M which is higher than their guidance of 1,093M!

Either I read the numbers wrong or there is a major deceleration. Please prove me wrong.

Long TDOC-28%

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The LVGO merger closed on October 30th, so it’s only incorporating the last two months. Consensus for LVGO was 103.6M for 4Q20, or 106% growth. 2/3 of that is ~69M, and when they revised Q4 guidance to account for the acquisition, they raised it by $75M and they just raised it again by $7M at the midpoint so I don’t see any issue here.

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Thank you Digized. If only 2/3 of LVGO Q4 is added to TDOC 2020 revenue, this explains it all.

If 75M is 2/3 of LVGO Q4, then the whole LVGO Q4 is around 112.5M. Sequential 6%, inline with its historical Q4 growth.

Subtracting 75M from the guidance leaves 307M for “pure” TDOC Q4. Sequential 6%, a bit on the lower size for its historical Q4, but understandable due to unusual Q3.

In total not much to fear indeed.

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