This is a regurgitation of an older piece that was discussed on the paid side a few months ago. And the author hasn’t kept up with the technology from most of the players.
For instance, the latest news, just released a few days ago, is that Waymo is itself going down the end-to-end AI path:
The article also tries the usual dinging of Tesla not using LiDAR, which Waymo and Mobileye use today. But just last week on its Earnings Call, Mobileye’s CEO said that he sees a future where autonomous vehicles do not have LiDAR.
So, the real truth is that the competition is more and more adopting what Tesla has been doing.
I think HD Mapping is going to be next. Right now Mobileye and Waymo make heavy use of detailed maps. Mobileye goes to great lengths and expense trying to keep its maps up to date, as roads are constantly changing.
Here’s one example of where that mapping fails Waymo:
(start at 10:30).
The road is narrow, and a pickup truck is partially blocking it. As discussed in the video, the Waymo vehicle could get around the pickup, but it would have to drive a little bit onto the driveway on the other side of the road. However, Waymo’s map defines the driveable boundary to not include that, so the car gets stuck for several minutes until the car behind it backs away so the Waymo can do the same.
Here’s another Waymo vehicle ride
In this one the vehicle fails and has to be manually driven by a Waymo employee who is dropped off at the car to drive it. What’s interesting is that the driver takes it out of the Waymo pre-mapped area, and the on-screen display loses much of its data. The roadway literally disappears, and we’re left seeing only some of the other vehicles and some of the buildings. Whereas Tesla shows drivable paths and roadways everywhere, without that pre-mapping.
Where maps come into play are to help the system anticipate what’s coming. Like regular commuters are smoother than Sunday drivers. Tesla does have map information, not just the typical navigation, but also for things like traffic signs and lights - there are videos showing Tesla vehicles describing on the screen slowing for a stop sign that is around a bend or hidden by a tree, that it couldn’t actually yet see.
A big downside of detailed HD maps is the effort needed to create and maintain them. For all its goodness, Waymo hasn’t shown an ability to scale easily. It’s still in just a handful of cities covering hundreds of square miles total, while FSD can drive on over 3 million square miles of the US, plus other countries.
The WSJ video is a mix of a couple old situations combined with poor/illegal driving of other vehicles that no human driver could have anticipated. Meanwhile, despite lidar, a Waymo vehicle drove straight into a pole and a Cruise vehicle dragged a pedestrian more than several feet. None of these systems are perfect yet.