Tesla's Record 207: The Most Autopilot and FSD Crashes in a Single Month — and Tesla Isn't Telling Us What Happened in 99.9% of Them

https://fuelcellsworks.com/2026/07/22/electric/tesla-s-record-207-the-most-autopilot-and-fsd-crashes-in-a-single-month-and-tesla-isn-t-telling-us-what-happened-in-99-9-percent-of-them

This article is a little old, but I haven’t seen it discussed here yet. The basic premise of the article is that Tesla still isn’t publishing safety data that would tell us whether FSD is safe or not.

Tesla logged 207 crashes involving its Level 2 driver-assist systems in May 2026 — the highest single-month total ever recorded in the company’s own NHTSA filings.

More alarming than the number: 99.9% of Tesla’s crash narratives are redacted, the software version field is blacked out (making it impossible to separate Autopilot from FSD), and Tesla is the only high-volume reporter hiding this data. Meanwhile, Tesla is the only automaker with the miles-driven data needed to know whether the per-mile rate is falling or rising — and they won’t publish it.

I suspect that because TSLA isn’t publishing safety data, FSD is not performing as well as human drivers. Otherwise, TSLA would definitely be touting this data.

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How far is 207 from the mean or the average?

  • 1%
  • 10%
  • 30%
  • 50%

The Captain

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Comparing [crashes in] January-through-June windows year-over-year to eliminate partial-year effects:

  • 2022 H1: 180
  • 2023 H1: 261
  • 2024 H1: 269
  • 2025 H1: 476
  • 2026 H1: 826 — a 73% jump over an already dramatically larger base

The trend is not leveling off. It is accelerating.

TSLA had a 56% increase in FSD subscribers in Q2 2026 as compared to the same quarter in 2025. So the percentage increase in crashes is outgrowing the percentage increase in FSD subscribers.

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It’s hard to make sense of these numbers but 73-56 = 17%. It could be the climate change heat wave.

The Captain

Hey, what’s a little lack of numeracy in the name of sensationalism? Below is a table of Tesla’s total ~cars on the road vs these crash numbers year over year.

Year Growth of Total Teslas on road Total AP/FSD accidents Column 4
2022 80% 180
2023 50% 261
2024 33% 269
2025 24% 476
2026 12% 826
5 year ish total: 400% 359%

Up until this anomalous 1st half reporting, which could be for a number of reasons, including a regression in FSD quality - the growth in accidents AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE CARS BEING SOLD was actually less than 1:1, and pretty clearly - a function of there being more cars on the road.

At the end of 2021 there were roughly 2 million Teslas on the road. As of now, over 10 million.

FC

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“Lies, damn lies, and statistics!”

Popularized by Mark Twain (pen name of Samuel Clemens) who wrote in his autobiography that he attributed the saying to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli.

The Captain

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Oh, wait. I get it now. You’re short Tesla, since your entire posting history is regurgitating every negative news flash about Tesla, gleefully pointing out anything about how much money Musk is losing, whatever. Bye.

FC

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Uhhh, bye, I guess. Are you leaving? Because, I’m staying and must continue my mission of providing factual data and analysis.

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