The Bottom

Well, THAT rally lasted all of 21 minutes. Anyone book any day trade profits?

I’m down again, but not enough to trigger any buys. I am actually at 23% cash since I should subtract the RMD that is still in the IRA. Should come out today or maybe New York’s Monday. I want to set the record straight. The RMD, same as last year’s goes to a community project. Pay back for 21 years of good retirement. IMO, better than retreating behind the gate of a golf course community (if only because my ingrained baseball swing results in an incurable slice). If the project turns out as badly as my 2021 investment results, so be it. Then next year I’ve promised myself to spend it foolishly on personal stuff (with the belief that the RMD will be larger next year). We shall see. Will be heavily dependent on the stock price performance of UPST (at the moment about 18.6% allocation, 2nd only to cash.

It’s after midnight. Survived the trip to Iloilo, but only after finding ourselves headlight to headlight with a Ceres bus for a not too stressful part of a second. The stress came later after the realization really settled in. 2nd time in a week to declare never again to be on the road after dark, particularly when it is dark at 6:00 with all the tricycles navigating by cellphone LED.

Ya’ll have a nice day, or what is left of it.



If it is a bottom today, ok great.
I have some skin in the game, and would benefit from a rebound.

But here are things I have been trying to do in 2022, which is 10 days old but feels like a month or two already:

  1. buy the dip in my usual suspects. The thinking was that the major capitulation wouldn’t happen until Spring, when index finally plummets and the megacaps fall. So go ahead and take advantage of dips now and execute some trading blocks, etc…

  2. keep selling into strength, and when the megas start to falter, watch cash and wait for a capitulation event.

But #1 hasn’t happened. Non-megacap growth just got whacked and kind of stayed beaten down. Now we see more broad selling, and megas starting to pitch in. Fed noise is ramping hard (end of QE, start of QT, raising of rates, inflation still bad, etc). We have pesky covid variants prolonging a bad hangover that pain relievers can’t fix on top of that.

Maybe we are accelerating the Nasdaq correction? I don’t know.
But mentally, what this has caused me to do is:

  1. start drifting lower on my target prices. because I thought things like GLBE would dip but surge before overall market capitulation, it made sense to look at something like $46-48 to be really low entries. But if market is just NOW getting started on going lower, and GLBE already at that level, then what is the bottom? $30s probably? Back to IPO price in $20s? Same with DOCN…instead of mid-60s, are we looking at 50s or lower? This is why I won’t even bother with UPST right now. They will likely forecast pretty rapid growth slowing, as auto hasn’t had a chance to kick in yet, and nothing kills a growth stock price like declining growth rates…so the oppty (in my mind) to buy UPST was if it did the ol’ buy the dip dance and made me a nice little 15%. Now I wonder where the bottom is.

  2. will start looking more at the still-expensive stocks to watch for major breaks down…things like NVDA, DDOG, TTD and others I like as businesses, but not as stock prices. They are still a ways off a buy for me, but if they speed up in an overall market capitulation, we could see May 2021 prices again. I didn’t bite hard enough then…will I a 2nd time around? Not sure.

Crazy out there. I am 5.2% down for 2022, but it feels like 25%, because I haven’t suffered big drawdowns in quite a while. Technically I was down hard with the UPST/LSPD fiascos, but they were so quickly paved over by GLBE and SPG rockets in Nov that it didn’t matter.

Pick your spots and good luck out there!