# The climate change success stories **URL:** \ **Category:** Macro Economic Trends and Risks\ **Created:** [December 25, 2025, 12:20am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/the-climate-change-success-stories/122666 "2025-12-25T00:20:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![jaagu](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/jaagu/32/6160_2.png) [@jaagu](https://discussion.fool.com/u/jaagu)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2025, 12:20am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/the-climate-change-success-stories/122666/1 "2025-12-25T00:20:03Z")
# **How they got it wrong – pessimistic predictions upended by post-Paris momentum** **28 Oct. 2025** **Analysis finds that the clean energy transition has advanced far beyond what was predicted a decade ago.** A decade since the landmark Paris Agreement was signed at the COP21 climate summit in 2015, new analysis reveals how cautious or even sceptical forecasts made around a decade ago have been proven wrong by momentum since. The analysis by the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) [1] finds that on measures including clean-energy installation and investment, emissions growth, the rollout of other technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs), and the embedding of climate policy and standards in the global economy, the Paris Agreement has had a transformative global impact. It finds that: - In 2015, BP’s Energy Outlook [2] predicted that the **global non-fossil share of power generation** would rise modestly from 32% that year to 38% by the end of its forecast period in 2035. By 2024 non-fossil generation already accounted for over 41% of the global power supply [3] – **making more progress in 10 years than was predicted over 20**. - **Solar and wind** have hugely exceeded expectations: the world installed 553 GW of solar in 2024 alone, **overshooting 2015 International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts by more than 1,500%** [4]. Coal is now in global decline. Total global solar capacity is over four times what was predicted in 2015, and doubling every three years. - **EVs** have exceeded expectations: **2024 EV deployment is already 40% above the IEA’s 2015 projections** , and on track to be 66% higher by 2030. The Paris declaration target of 100 million electric vehicles on the road by 2030 is on target to be hit as soon as 2027. [Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit | How they got it wrong –…](https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2025/how-they-got-it-wrong-pessimistic-predictions-upended-by-post-paris-momentum#:%5C~:text=Clean%20energy%20investment%20will%20reach,what%20it%20was%20in%202015) . ---
**Author:** ![waterfell](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/waterfell/32/8050_2.png) [@waterfell](https://discussion.fool.com/u/waterfell)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2025, 7:16pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/the-climate-change-success-stories/122666/2 "2025-12-25T19:16:58Z")
> [@jaagu](#): > > Coal is now in global decline. Oh really? Below is the world energy consumption of coal, in exajoules, for each of the last 6 years as recorded in the [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review). World Coal Consumption, exajoules 2019: 157.06 2020: 152.34 2021: 160.71 2022: 161.74 2023: 163.15 2024: 165.06 Coal consumption is higher than pre-pandemic, and is at a record high. This year looks to be another record high. > **[China and India Keep Global Coal Demand Rising | OilPrice.com](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/China-and-India-Keep-Global-Coal-Demand-Rising.html)** > > Bloomberg: Global coal demand rose to an all-time high in 2025, up 0.5% y-on-y to 8,845 million tons. - **Bloomberg: Global coal demand rose to an all-time high in 2025, up 0.5% y-on-y to 8,845 million tons.** - **China consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined and fully determines global trends.** - **India is the main source of net demand growth through 2030, driven by electricity demand, cement, steel, and coal-based industrial processes.** ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Below are the trends for the other two main fossil fuels. World Oil Consumption, exajoules 2019: 194.39 2020: 176.76 2021: 186.65 2022: 192.82 2023: 197.40 2024: 199.10 World Natural Gas Consumption, exajoules 2019: 140.59 2020: 139.33 2021: 144.81 2022: 144.21 2023: 144.50 2024: 148.60 Finally, below is the trend in the total world CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, as recorded in the [Global Carbon Atlas](https://globalcarbonatlas.org/emissions/carbon-emissions/). World CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, gigatonnes 2019: 37.087 2020: 35.158 2021: 36.867 2022: 37.528 2023: 38.094 2024: 38.599 The atmospheric CO2 concentration is headed higher, and not even slowing down. \_ Pete ---
**Author:** ![jaagu](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/jaagu/32/6160_2.png) [@jaagu](https://discussion.fool.com/u/jaagu)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2025, 10:02am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/the-climate-change-success-stories/122666/3 "2025-12-26T10:02:27Z")
> [@waterfell](#): > > > [@jaagu](#): > > > > Coal is now in global decline. > > Oh really? That statement “Coal is now in global decline” was referring to electricity generation. You took the statement out of context. The author even foot noted the statement to this reference: > **[Global Electricity Review 2025 | Ember](https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2025/)** > > Record renewables growth led by solar helped push clean power past 40% of global electricity in 2024, but heatwave-related demand spikes led to a small increase in fossil generation. ---
**Author:** ![waterfell](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/waterfell/32/8050_2.png) [@waterfell](https://discussion.fool.com/u/waterfell)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2025, 7:43pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/the-climate-change-success-stories/122666/4 "2025-12-27T19:43:58Z")
> [@jaagu](#): > > That statement “Coal is now in global decline” was referring to electricity generation. You took the statement out of context. I took nothing out of context. Electricity generation from coal is also at an all-time high. From the spreadsheet version of the Statistical Review of World Energy data, we get the following generation statistics for coal. Electricity generation from coal, worldwide, TWh 2019: 9902.6 2020: 9498.0 2021: 10,234.0 2022: 10,311.7 2023: 10,461.0 2024: 10,613.2 2024 is an all-time high. This is backed up by the source provided by jaagu. [https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2025/global-electricity-trends/#global-electricity-generation](https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2025/global-electricity-trends/#global-electricity-generation) From the link, regarding electricity generation for the year 2024… **“The global increase in fossil generation came mostly from coal which rose by 149 TWh (+1.4%). Gas generation increased by 103 TWh (+1.6%). Other fossil fuels saw a minor fall of 7.7 TWh (-0.9%).”** **“China and India saw the largest increases in coal generation in 2024, together totalling more than the global net increase.”** Also… ”**Global power sector emissions reached a new record high in 2024, rising by 1.6% or 223 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2), compared to 2023. This increase was similar to 2023 (+1.5%) and 2022 (+1.3%) and was driven by an increase in fossil generation, predominantly from coal.”** ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ \_ Pete ---
**Author:** ![jaagu](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/jaagu/32/6160_2.png) [@jaagu](https://discussion.fool.com/u/jaagu)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2025, 8:05am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/the-climate-change-success-stories/122666/5 "2025-12-29T08:05:16Z")
> [@waterfell](#): > > 2024 is an all-time high. > > This is backed up by the source provided by jaagu. > > [Global Electricity Review 2025 | Ember](https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2025/global-electricity-trends/#global-electricity-generation) Yes but 2025 may be a decline from 2024. ---
**Author:** ![jaagu](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/jaagu/32/6160_2.png) [@jaagu](https://discussion.fool.com/u/jaagu)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2025, 6:38pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/the-climate-change-success-stories/122666/6 "2025-12-29T18:38:44Z")
> [@waterfell](#): > > Electricity generation from coal, worldwide, TWh > 2019: 9902.6 > 2020: 9498.0 > 2021: 10,234.0 > 2022: 10,311.7 > 2023: 10,461.0 > 2024: 10,613.2 > > 2024 is an all-time high. Looks like coal has peaked in 2024 even as the world electrical energy use is increasing. The first 10 months of 2024 = 8435 TWh The first 10 months of 2025 = 8429 TWh > **[Electricity Data Explorer | Ember](https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?fuel=fossil)** > > Explore national and state level fossil and renewable electricity generation and carbon emissions data for the United States ---
**Author:** ![captainccs](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/captainccs/32/3775_2.png) [@captainccs](https://discussion.fool.com/u/captainccs)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2025, 7:06pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/the-climate-change-success-stories/122666/7 "2025-12-29T19:06:43Z")
> [@jaagu](#): > > The first 10 months of 2024 = 8435 TWh > > The first 10 months of 2025 = 8429 TWh 0.07% difference is significant? The Captain