The Elephant and the Rabbit

As most of us are painfully aware - ENPH plunged today taking a great deal of our money with it. With there now being only three questions to ask yourself:

  1. Should I Add?

  2. Should I trim?

  3. Should I just Hunker Down with it?

  4. Should I sell?

Note: One of the super star outfits I pay money to says that with todays breach of mission critical support levels ENPH could re-visit the $100 level. Just Lovely: How’s that for a cheery thought?

ENPH - clearly the Elephant, will undoubtedly recover its mojo over time in that this is not a company problem - it’s a general economy problem that will, at some point, be resolved.

So…what to do with ENPH? I think that decision has been already made for me in that what is the sense of selling now after the damage is done? True enough - If I re-route ENPH’s contact money into a currently more nimble player the team could perhaps perform much better without worrying whether/or when ENPH might return to form. Normally that logic is identical to the same logic I have used to dump underperformers on a pretty immediate basis - and, it has seemingly served the team performance well. But - thats not going to happen here. For better or worse - unless; moving forward, there is much less better and much more worse, I think I am going to just Hunker Down with ENPH…at least for a while. Now…that done, what about the rabbit?

A few days ago I posted something or other about a company recommended way back in the day called Impinj - or, PI for short. PI is the obvious Rabbit in the room and represents a different decision making process primarily due to it not being on the roster; but rather, just trying out.

Today PI had its very own ENPH moment: it reported AC with what looked like, to me at least, decent enough numbers but mucked it up at the end with, what is increasingly becoming, a growth market process of self inflicted, train wreck Guidance - or something very similar to that. Here is the Press release:

Impinj Reports First Quarter 2023 Financial Results | Seeking Alpha

Prior to the ER the company had a rabbit sized MCap of only about 3.5B, give or take. They lost approximately 27% of that during AHs trading. So…a company with a pretty good 5Yr track record, a decent enough product offering that is in-demand and growing, along with a potential AI sweetheart tie-in has all of a sudden became a lot more reasonable. And sure thats one way to look at it.

It should be pointed out that the rabbit is guiding for a next QTR Revenue Growth figure that be in the neighborhood of 48%. And besides - with everyone guiding down in this economy 48% doesn’t seem all that bad to me; most especially when you realize that their kamikaze guidance was off consensus by all of a million or two.

Now…take it from me - rabbits are a lot harder to hit than elephants. True elephants are something of a semi-sure thing with the only variable being time. Rabbits on the other hand are a decidedly iffy bunch to contend with. So what to do?

Haven’t got much to lose by giving PI a small Scout Team level contract and if all they do is provide interest and entertainment without actually losing any money then so what -its not like they are any more of a risk than any of the other rabbits I consider for Scout Team positions.

So…I’ll keep the Elephant for now and probably won’t bother with a Stop Loss: The rabbit perhaps…perhaps I say, a Scout Team contract just…well…just because…thats why. Maybe - Maybe not - tomorrow we’ll see.

All the Best,


Slept on it and decided PI is an untouchable just now.

All the Best,