Tesla’s fully driverless CyberCab just completed its first real unsupervised ride in Dallas — 2.25 miles, 7 minutes, $6.15, with zero humans in the loop. At 20 cents a mile and a sub-$30,000 price tag, Uber’s 8.8 million drivers and $44 billion empire just heard a starting gun.
The Captain
That’s amazing, how expensive the Cybercab is at this stage in the introduction cycle. Waymo is also introducing their bespoke cab into their various service areas, and they’re offering those rides at zero dollars:
Waymo is rolling out a new driverless taxi to help the company expand into more cities and tackle tougher driving conditions, including snowy roads, the company announced Wednesday.
The new vehicle, dubbed the Ojai, will begin serving select customers in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Phoenix in the coming weeks. Rides will be free of charge as the company gathers feedback.
Waymo launches services with cheaper robotaxis in Los Angeles - Los Angeles Times
Look out Uber! There’s no way they can compete with zero cents per mile!
Except I’m pretty sure that Uber isn’t too worried about where the price starts for these new products being introduced. They’re at such a low volume that the companies in question can charge as low as they want without worrying about whether the price charged covers operating costs. And offering discounted rides during the introductory phase gets you positive feelings and coverage from your earlier adopters.
The base rate for Tesla’s robotaxi has been about $1.40 per mile, getting up to $2.0 per mile for a basic five mile ride:
…and there’s no way that changing the vehicle would drop the per-mile cost by more than a dollar. Those upgraded Model Y’s that make up the Austin fleet don’t cost $300,000.
The most likely explanation isn’t that Tesla has found a way to lower their costs from $2.00 per mile to $0.20 per mile just by changing the car. They’re still going to have all those outside-the-vehicle expenses. Rather, they’re just not charging the customer enough to cover their cost, so that they can get happy feedback and publicity on the new Cybercab. They didn’t go all the way to free, like Waymo did, but almost certainly there’s a massive discount in there.
There is so much disinformation out there about Tesla robotaxis that I mostly have quit paying any attention to it. I do believe that there will be some capital cost/depreciation differnce between Tesla vehicles and infrastructure vs that of Waymo. There may be some amortization advantage for Tesla as FSD can be depreciated by owners as well as Robotaxis. These will be minor in the bigger scheme of things.
This nonsense should really just STOP. At this point, Tesla is still years from a true rollout of their robotaxi.
Do you have a source for this? A functioning Cybercab would be big news, but I’ve heard nothing about it. I searched on “CyberCab just completed its first real unsupervised ride in Dallas” and the first hit was this thread.
Well, now I feel dumb. I wrote that post above pointing out that the most likely explanation for this was that it was a discounted fare and didn’t necessarily reflect the actual operating cost to Tesla. It didn’t even occur to me that another likely explanation might be that it simply never happened in the first place and that the video was fake.
Scanning the video more carefully, it appears that there’s no “receipt” at all shown or described in the video. No evidence that any person actually took a ride in a cybercab at that price. The scenes of the gentleman in the cybercab don’t identify him as a passenger, and appear to be in a stationary car at a promotional event. There’s no other evidence of cybercabs actually being deployed for service.
Just the video.
The Captain
Your point is still valid. I’ve seen plenty of people in other threads comparing Tesla robotaxi, Waymo, and Uber fares and coming to similar conclusions about permanent structural advantages. You can bet when (if?) they ever get Cybercab operational they will do so in the future.
Was there something in the video where they actually documented that the ride took place, and that the passenger actually rode in a cybercab and was charged that specific fare? For all the talk of “receipts,” I couldn’t find it.
I asked Google,
GoogleAI:
Tesla’s launch of its fully unsupervised robotaxi service in Dallas—currently utilizing Model Ys with the purpose-built Cybercab entering the pipeline—has indeed introduced a massive cost disruption to the rideshare industry. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Early data from its rollout demonstrates this exact trip profile (a 2.25-mile, 7-minute ride) pricing out at $6.15. This undercuts Waymo’s standard rate of $13.93 for the identical route by roughly 56%. [1, 2]
The Economics of the Disruption
Cost Per Mile: Introductory rates in North Texas are set at a $3.25 base fare plus $1.00 per mile, cementing a per-mile travel cost that sits closer to 20 to 30 cents—radically undercutting the traditional driver-subsidized model. [1]
The Cybercab Advantage: Designed to be produced for under $30,000, the two-seater Cybercab requires no pedals or steering wheel, eliminating human labor costs and drastically reducing fleet hardware and depreciation expenses. [1, 2, 3, 4]
The Competitive Landscape
Waymo: Waymo’s operational footprint is currently far larger, with a nationwide fleet roughly 3,000 strong. However, the cost profile limits its ability to scale price wars without heavily subsidizing rides. [1]
Uber: Though Uber commands an extensive network of 8.8 million drivers, Tesla’s pricing model poses a serious long-term threat. If Tesla achieves broad geographic scale with $30,000 autonomous units, Uber and its human-driven workforce face a formidable structural barrier to price-matching. [1, 2, 3]
The Path Forward
While the math is compelling for consumers, Tesla faces several steep hurdles to turning this into an immediate Uber-killer. Early data from Texas indicates that Tesla’s autonomous fleet is scaling rapidly but still contends with regulatory approvals, public trust issues, and technical performance concerns. Regulatory filings from its pilot phases have drawn scrutiny due to a higher-than-average incident rate during complex, urban edge-cases, meaning fleet-wide FSD (Full Self-Driving) safety data must scale flawlessly alongside its physical expansion
Is waymo related to google?
GoogleAI:
Waymo is directly related to Google
; it began in 2009 as the Google Self-Driving Car Project before “graduating” in 2016 to become an independent subsidiary of Alphabet Inc., which is also the parent company of Google. [1, 2]
Key Shared Connections:
Corporate Structure: Both Google and Waymo operate as sister companies under the Alphabet corporate umbrella.
Shared Tech Roots: Waymo’s autonomous driving software and hardware were initially developed inside Google’s secretive X research lab.
App Integration: You can easily hail a Waymo autonomous ride using the Waymo One app, which seamlessly connects with your existing Google account and is downloadable via Google Play
The Captain
GoogleAI:
Tesla’s $0.20 per mile figure is a projected operating cost for a theoretical scaled fleet, not the charged price. The actual ride-hailing rates charged to consumers are higher and fluctuating. Furthermore, Waymo does not offer free rides; their services typically cost more per mile than human-driven Ubers. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Cost vs. Price
When Elon Musk states the Cybercab can achieve a cost of roughly $0.20 per mile, he is referring to the internal operational cost. This projection accounts for high vehicle utilization, lower energy consumption from a lighter build, and the absence of human drivers. It includes line items like maintenance, cleaning, depreciation, energy, and insurance—not the retail rate billed to the user. [1, 2, 3, 4]Pricing Strategies in the Market
- Tesla: Tesla operates a distance-based fare system for its robotaxi service in regions like Austin, Texas, using a base fare and a per-mile charge. To test market sensitivity and fine-tune economics, they have periodically adjusted these fares, sometimes raising them significantly to align with market demand. [1, 2, 3]
- Waymo: Market data from ride aggregators like Obi indicates that Waymo frequently prices as a premium service, sometimes costing 10% to 30% more than a standard Uber or Lyft
Right. A projected cost, for a theoretical scaled fleet. Not something that Tesla is actually charging for in Dallas right now, as your video claimed.
The actual cost for that ride was $2.73 per mile. Vastly higher than Uber. Not the end of Uber, not a starting gun shot at Uber. Just another entrant at a price point significantly more costly than even ridesharing, let alone private ownership. And apparently still with the modified Model Y, not the Cybercab.
The OP video is false. Outright deceptive. Tesla isn’t charging 20 cents per mile, and they’re not deploying the Cybercab yet. It’s just AI slop.
Thank you for taking time for checking all of this.
I’m sorry that it seems we all got a little bit dumber reading this thread.
This article from cnbc should help some to understand
Blackberry was way ahead of Apple. Where are their phones now?
GoogleAI:
BlackBerry phones are no longer being made.
The company stopped making its famous devices and shut down its classic services in January 2022. Today, the brand is out of the smartphone business entirely. [1, 2, 3]
What Happened to BlackBerry?
Classic phones: Classic devices running BlackBerry OS no longer work for calls, texts, or data.
Android phones: Later models like the BlackBerry KEYone and BlackBerry KEY2 used Android software. These still work for basic tasks but no longer get security updates.
The company today: BlackBerry shifted its focus completely to cybersecurity software and car technology. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The Last Notable BlackBerry Models
If you are a collector or miss the physical keyboard, these were the final Android-powered phones made under the BlackBerry name: [1, 2]
BlackBerry KEY2:
BlackBerry KEYone:
Modern Alternatives
If you want a phone with a physical keyboard today, look at the Unihertz Titan series. Devices like the Unihertz Titan Pocket run modern Android software and mimic the classic BlackBerry style. [1, 2, 3]
Do you want to buy an old BlackBerry for a collection, or are you looking for a current phone with a physical keyboard?
The Captain
Apple was way ahead of Microsoft. Where are the Zunes now?
Tesla’s reached the full year mark in their Texas robotaxi launch, and only have 42 vehicles deployed. Not only is that an order of magnitude lower than Waymo’s 577, but it’s not even good enough for second place. A Texas robotaxi firm called AV Ride has 317 vehicles registered in the state, more than 7x the number that Tesla has.
Clearly, they’re not scaling as fast as Tesla claimed that they would. I’d be curious if you had any thoughts on why they’re falling so far behind their initial projections?
This thread is not about phones
You don’t have to be the first mover or have the best product to succeed, but it helps.
The problem here as I see it in’t so much that Tesla is behind in the tech race, the problem is that Cybercab production started last month. But without something close to functional L4 autonomy, they can’t be used for ride hailing and lack of driver controls means they can’t be sold to customers.
If L4 is six months away, it probably doesn’t matter too much. But every month of delay pushes cash flows farther into the future. What if they are two or three years out? What if they can’t get there at all with HW4?
Right.
A fair concern. Tesla has deep pockets and multiple sources of income. If it were a one horse show I’d worry.
GoogleAI:
Tesla holds about ($44) billion in cash and short-term investments, making it one of the most well-capitalized companies in the world. However, several mega-cap technology companies possess substantially deeper financial reserves: [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Apple: Commands roughly ($162) billion in total cash and marketable securities.
Microsoft: Holds over ($100) billion in total cash and cash equivalents.
Alphabet (Google): Controls over ($90) billion in cash and short-term investments. [1]
The Captain
An acknowledgment from a Tesla bull here in our discussions that L4 autonomy might not generate much revenue any time soon for Tesla.
I also agree, it’s a fair concern.
I’m not sure what word count we needed in all of these posts and threads to get agreement, but we did it.
