Hubacek and colleagues from the United States and China carried out full supply chain analyses of the policy documents underlying the Green Deal.
Their conclusion is that the Green Deal in its current form will lead to an increase in emissions in countries outside the EU by 245% compared to the Green Deal’s carbon reduction goal in the land, land use change, and forestry sector within EU borders.
DB2
Outsourcing?
The Captain
Indeed. You also see it on the industrial side of the economy. Manufacturing gets outsourced to, say, China or Viet Nam and carbon dioxide emissions go down in the original country.
DB2
And dirty industries like mining get shifted out of country so we can import and have a clean environment.
Your post is misleading. This article only concerns the EU land use for farming and forests. It has nothing to do with anything else. Remember that land use is a minor contributor to green house gas emissions. The major green house gas emitters are as follows:
And recall that net zero 2050 addresses each of those sectors. Net zero is possible but getting there requires major investment in green technology.
Voters seem reluctant to pay the price. Maybe they can ignore it and let their grandkids make the necessary sacrifices!!
Yes and the US and EU are trying to claw back the manufacturing that has been outsourced to low wage countries.
The European Union (EU) has been reducing its greenhouse gas emissions, while the United States’ emissions have increased:
The EU has been reducing its greenhouse gas emissions since the 1990s, and in 2022 emissions were 32.5% lower than 1990 levels. In 2021, the EU made it legally binding to reach net zero emissions by 2050, and set an interim target of a 55% reduction by 2030.
The US’s greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 3.7% since the 1990s. In 2022, US emissions grew by 0.8% or 36 Mt, with the highest emissions growth in the buildings sector.
No, this is a first order effect (something that is 10% or more).
“The land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector plays a key role in achieving the EU’s goal of zero net emissions by 2050. LULUCF activities removed net 230 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e) from the atmosphere in 2021, equal to 7% of the EU’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. Removals are estimated to increase to 244Mt CO2e in 2022. The LULUCF Regulation sets an EU-level net removal target of 310Mt CO2e by 2030. Based on Member State projections submitted in 2023, the current implemented and planned measures will not suffice to meet the target, falling short by 50 Mt CO2e.”
Through outsourcing, that 250 Mt CO2e (7%) reduction becomes a 760 Mt increase. Annual carbon dioxide emissions for the EU are some 2500 Mt.
Global spillover effects of the European Green Deal and plausible mitigation options
Zhong et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-024-01428-1
DB2
You are wrong! This does not increase worldwide carbon emissions by 10% or more. It may have a 1% or less effect on worldwide carbonn emissions.
Quite right; the research and this thread are focused on the EU.
DB2