Interesting piece I don’t buy all of it. But he makes some good points.
The 6 drivers:
Here are the six one-offs that won’t be coming back:
1) China’s industrialization.
2) Growth-positive demographics.
3) Low interest rates.
4) Low debt levels.
5) Low inflation.
6) Tech productivity boom.
I certainly agree on points 1,2 &4.
I doubt 2% interest rates will return but 3 to 4% are possible.
US Inflation rate is 3 to 3.5%. May not be considered low but it ain’t awful.
US productivity is sluggish but not awful.
https://www.bls.gov/productivity/
The author thinks that the belief that AI surge the economy is an illusion.
The buzz around AI holds that an equivalent boom is now starting that will generate a glorious “Roaring 20s” of trillions booked in new profits and skyrocketing productivity as white-collar work and jobs are automated into oblivion.
There are two problems with this story:
1) The projections are based more on wishful thinking than real-world dynamics.
2) If the projections come true and tens of millions of white-collar jobs disappear forever, there is no replacement sector to employ the tens of millions of unemployed workers.